Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

A synthesis of homelessness in South Africa: A rapid critical appraisal

Homelessness in South Africa requires collaborative research. Social, political, cultural and economic factors that cause homelessness must be considered to develop a common definition and understanding of homelessness. South Africa’s social complexity and diversity make it challenging to construct available results into one conceptual framework, and this in turn complicates national policy implementation and role allocation. By means of a rapid critical appraisal of literature on homelessness in South Africa, researchers provide evidence to direct and structure contextual research pertaining to homelessness. Four themes transpire: conceptualisation; demography; roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders; and strategic policy and research issues. Researchers caution that the findings are not generalisable, because of the rapid nature of the appraisal and possible selection bias of the literature. Measures of validity were used to ensure that the study accomplished its purpose through the key results and to ensure that the results are a true reflection of available evidence.     

Employee brand engagement on social media: Managing optimism and commonality

This article considers how employees engage with B2B firms on social media, a topic that is largely overlooked in the extant brand engagement literature. Using the results from a large-scale study of employee brand engagement on social media, we identify two key drivers of employee brand engagement using the content analysis tool DICTION—namely, optimism and commonality. Employees of top-ranked and -rated firms express higher levels of optimism and commonality in their reviews of their employers on social media than do their counterparts in bottom-ranked and -rated firms. This permits the construction of a 2 × 2 matrix that allows managers to diagnose strategies for increasing or improving employee brand engagement. This creates four different kinds of employee brand engagement situations, and offers human resources and marketing managers different strategies in each case. We demonstrate how practitioners and scholars can shed new light on the way stakeholders engage with brands.     

PROFESSOR REEKIE AND MARKETS: HEALTH CARE AND HIGHER EDUCATION

In this intriguing book Duncan Reekie goes to the very basis of the economic order. ¹ He discusses the views of the ancient Greek and later writers, and in doing so, moves outside the confines of modern economic analysis. One is reminded of what Schumpeter once wrote: the economist pursues the study of cause and effect until he finds the causal role of a variable to be non-economic. We must then "give place to other disciplines". ² Reekie's analysis reverses the order: it starts with the very general concept of the Natural Law in the works of ancient Greek and many subsequent writers, and then shows how they addressed questions that are still relevant today: questions on property and individual freedom.     

Societal preferences for fertility treatment in Australia: a stated preference discrete choice experiment

Objective: To investigate preferences for fertility treatment from the Australian general population with the aims of calculating the willingness to pay in tax contribution for attributes (characteristics) that make up treatment and for an “ideal” fertility treatment program. We also assessed whether willingness-to-pay varies by the relationship status or sexual orientation of the patient.

Methods: A stated preference discrete choice experiment was administered to a panel of 801 individuals representative of the Australian general population. Seven attributes of fertility treatment under three broad categories were included: outcome, process, and cost. Attributes were identified through published literature, focus group discussions, expert knowledge, and a pilot study. A Bayesian fractional experimental design was used, and data analysis was performed using a generalized multinomial logit model. Further analyses included interaction terms and latent class modeling.

Results: Six of the seven attributes influenced the choice of a treatment program. Under process attributes, individuals preferred: continuity of care of clinic staff, where patients are seen by the same doctor but different nurses at each visit; “alternative” treatments being offered to all patients; and onsite clinic counseling and peer-support groups. Personalization and tailoring of the treatment journey were not important. Among outcome attributes, the improved success rate of having a baby per cycle and significant side-effects were considered important. Cost of treatment also influenced the choice of treatment program. Individual preferences for fertility treatment were not associated with patients’ relationship status or sexual orientation. Latent class modeling revealed sub-groups with distinct fertility treatment preferences.

Conclusion: This study provides important insights into the attributes that influence the preferences of fertility treatment in Australia. It also estimates socially-inclusive willingness-to-pay values in tax contributions for an “ideal” package of treatment. The results can inform economic evaluations of fertility treatment programs.