提高政府规制有效性的途径与实践--一个基于成本收益分析的视角

政府规制应当进行成本收益分析以提高规制的有效性。已有的规制理论或只重视收益而忽视成本,或过分强调成本而低估收益,从而在宏观上影响着规制制度建立和运行的有效性。由于成本收益分析在公共政策决策中的某些不足,除美、英等西方国家,这种方法较少被其它国家在规制政策的制定和评估中采用。成本收益的分析可以从宏观和微观两个方面降低“规制失灵”的程度,从而相应提高政府规制的有效性。因此,我国的政府规制改革应积极引入成本收益分析及建立在成本收益分析基础之上的规制影响评估制度,以提高我国政府规制政策的有效性。     

Estimating the capital charge for external fraud risk： A clinical study

The main objective of this paper is to estimate the economic capital for covering the external fraud risk within a financial institution. This is a kind of operational risk which is due to acts of a type intended to defraud, misappropriate property or circumvent the law, by a third party. From the methodological point of view, we apply the Loss Distribution Approach （LDA）, based on the Internal Operational Loss Database （IOLD） provided by a Spanish Saving Bank. More specifically, we asses the potential impact of the severity distribution on the Capital at Risk （CAR）. In absence of normality, we try to adjust the Lognormal, Weibull and Exponential functions when modelling the severity of losses. As a result, we find a high divergence in terms of capital charge depending on the statistical model selected. In consequence, in order to obtain a realistic model, we highlight the relevance of the goodness of fit between the empirical and the theoretical distribution.     

我国私募基金的风险及防范

我国私募基金面临着法律与政策风险、经营风险、道德风险、市场风险等,投资者的利益受到严重威胁。应采取明确私募基金法律地位、强化对私募基金的监管、培养成熟理性的投资者、适时推出股指期货等措施加以防范。     

城市规划与社区规划的异同和互融

当前社区已成为我国城市结构中的基本构成,全面推进社区建设成为建设和谐社会的一项重要内容。从人文视角探索了基于社区发展理念的城市规划编制办法,以求将社区发展的规划理念、规划方法、规划内容与策略等有机地融入城市规划;并以位于杭州市旧城区的长庆单元控制性详细规划的编制为例,分析了操作层面的具体措施。     

我国房地产宏观调控的得失探究

过去十年来,为了调控房地产业,使其发展符合决策者的预期,房地产政策文件频繁出现,以至于使"房产新政"成为一个常态。不断更替的房地产政策既反应了中国房地产市场形势变化的迅速,也意味着这些政策绩效的缺乏。房地产市场是因政策频出而变得不稳定,还是因其不稳定而招致频繁的政策?促进房地产业的稳定健康发展,应在重点分析这些政策绩效之后,寻找出改善政策的思路。科学的房地产政策应该能够完善交易环节的市场机制,以节约房地产交易的成本,并能抑制保有环节的投机性需求,以防止稀缺房地产资源的浪费。     

涉众型金融犯罪中检察、银监部门合作模式探析

维护社会稳定是检察、银监部门的共同职责,也是涉众型金融犯罪中检察、银监部门合作的基础和出发点。在处置涉众型金融犯罪的各个环节中,两部门都有合作空间。本文主要探讨检察、银监部门在协作工作方面的主要内容．包括信息共享、交互培训、协作接访等,并提出相关对策建议。     

Liberalization,Regulatory Delays and Vulnerability to Systemic Banking Crisis

This work aims at contributing to the improvement of the early warning systems of banking crises using a new approach accounting for model uncertainty. We show that a multinomial logit model based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a good strategy to predict banking crisis. To do this, we argue that differences in vulnerability to banking crisis can be largely explained by an asymmetry between financial market evolution and regulation update on a sample of 49 developed and developing countries between 1980 and 2010. When markets are liberalized, competition pushes bankers to take more risks and take advantage of regulatory delays thus increasing crises probabilities. Our empirical evidence supports that crisis probability is higher in country liberalizing their banking system when regulation is not updated. We developed an early warning system for systemic banking crises based on the multinomial logit model. Its main difference to existing prediction models and its contribution to the literature is that it is intended to identify and resolve what is called by Bussiere and Fratzscher [(2006). Towards a new early warning system of financial crises. Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(6), 953–973] as post-crisis bias in binomial models and to develop a new methodology of leading indicators selection based on BMA. Overall, our model predicts all banking crises during our sample period.     

The 21st Century Cures Act: pharmacoeconomic boon or bane?

Barriers to entry in healthcare markets constitute one of the overriding concerns of health economists. The recent enactment of the 21st Century Cures Act in the United States reduces statutory entry barriers to the discovery, development, testing, and licensing of drugs and medical devices. Drug and device makers also see the burdensome and time-consuming requirements of the Food and Drug Administration?s approval process as key barriers to lowering the costs of their products, considering it takes a decade of research amounting to $1 billion just to bring a single drug to the market. Along with novel opportunities for medical product innovation and faster treatment of diseases, the expedited approval process carries with it contentious challenges involving the safety, efficacy and value of drugs and devices. The ensuing trade-offs and unintended consequences of such a regulatory game-changer bring to the fore one of the most enduring debates between medicine and economics: Whether – or to what extent – cost and efficiency factors affect clinical inquiry into possible solutions to human illnesses. The practical and theoretical contributions of pharmacoeconomics should enlighten contemporary and future issues and discussions surrounding the implementation of this landmark legislation. After all, despite its undeniably good intent and far-reaching significance, no law can ever be perfect.     

保险公司再保险业务的监管资本套利动因研究

保险公司再保险业务也存在着跟银行相类似的监管资本套利情况。满足“最低资本要求”和“偿付金要求”、增强承保能力、平衡保险利润、粉饰财务报表、逃避税赋是保险公司监管资本套利的动因。为防止消极结果的出现,需要从明确风险转移的标准、规范再保险合同的形式和内容、建立合适的再保险信息披露体系三个方面来规范我国保险公司再保险业务的发展。     

监管资本套利的动因与经济效应研究——兼论对我国新资本协议实施的启示

监管资本套利,是商业银行利用资本监管制度之间的差异性以及制度内部的不协调性,运用某种手段,在不改变实际风险水平的情况下提高资本充足率水平的行为。监管资本套利,产生于巴塞尔协议资本监管框架的缺陷,作为巴塞尔协议一个未曾预料的结果,其在西方发达国家发展非常迅速。2010年是新资本协议在中国正式实施的元年,监管资本套利也必将成为中国不可回避的一个问题。本文讨论了商业银行监管资本套利的动因以及经济影响,依据结论的政策含义,总结了对我国新资本协议实施的启示。