人民币升值、股价上涨和热钱流入关系的实证研究

本文基于CLR(1996)模型和多重套利模型(2007)这两个重要理论模型来解释国内人民币升值、股票价格上涨和热钱流入之间存在的互动关系。并结合样本数据通过Granger因果关系对人民币升值、股票价格上涨和热钱流入的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示:人民币升值和上证综合指数上涨是热钱流入中国大陆的原因,但热钱流入不是人民币升值和上证综合指数上涨的原因。对理论模型解释和实证检验结果之间出现的异同。本文做出分析和解释。最后给出政策建议。     

中部崛起中的地方政府治理研究

促进区域协调发展是构建社会主义和谐社会的必然要求。中共十七大报告也提出要继续实施区域发展总体战略．大力促进中部地区崛起。从中部崛起的战略高度对中部地区的现状进行分析,探寻地方政府在这一过程的角色选择。     

如何遏制房价过快上涨

本文认为,国家遏制房价过快上涨并不等于不允许房价上涨.治理当前房价过快上涨可采取三项治本措施:一是迅速恢复股票市场的保值功能,以此扭转房地产市场成为投资市场的市场错位;二是积极而果断地开征房屋财产税,以有效制止过度的住房消费需求:三是要求中央企业全部退出房地产市场,即必须通过立法建立公营企业制度,不允许公营企业进入市场竞争性领域.     

催化裂化反应器技术进展

催化裂化技术在世界炼油领域中占有举足轻重的地位,因此对催化裂化反应器的研究也较多。对现有催化裂化反应器的改进进行了研究并已取得初步进展,对催化裂化反应器进行了分类,并概括了其研究的新进展。     

中国均衡财政体制研究

基于中国地区经济差异的财政体制首先是将地区经济分级并将其作为财政体制设计的基础,认为不同经济等级的地区应该也可以实行不同的财政体制,地方是否与中央分税、如何分税决定于地方的经济发展水平;其次是针对地区经济发展水平差异设计了不同的体制模式;最后是对政府事权"分块",认为可对"共有事权"进行局部调整,以使地方财力与事权相匹配。     

西安市基础设施融资问题研究

文章在分析西安市城市基础设施融资问题的基础上,结合西安市实际情况,提出开辟多元化融资渠道、创新基础设施融资方式、加大对内外开放程度、加强法规制度建设等对策建议。     

The World Bank and Emerging Powers: Beyond the Multipolarity–Multilateralism Conundrum

The discrepancy between the increasingly multipolar world economy of the recent decades and the stubbornly limited representativeness of the organisations mandated with its governance causes much strain in global politics. Some scholars suggest that this chronic mismatch will undermine existing multilateral bodies, while others expect the present architecture to persist. This article contends that the outcomes of this challenge are institution-specific. In settings where significant operational realignments are possible within existing mandates and governance structures, the multipolarity–multilateralism conundrum could be partly mitigated. The argument is based on a thematic analysis of all IBRD-IDA loan commitments between 2002 and 2015 in the World Bank’s seven all-time top borrowers: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey (collectively, the Big Seven). The key finding is that while these emerging countries remain the Bank’s biggest clients, the terms of their engagement have shifted precisely along the lines where they had already differed from the rest of the Bank’s clientele: away from politically onerous governance and institutional reforms, and towards developing physical and market infrastructure while attaining social sustainability. This implicit realignment is facilitated by the Bank’s diverse policy repertoire, which allows considerable inter-regional and intra-regional variation in lending patterns to accommodate member preferences.     

The accidental agro-power: constructing comparative advantage in Brazil

Brazil has emerged as an agro-export powerhouse: from being a net-agricultural importer and food aid recipient as recently as the 1960s and 1970s, it has now become the world’s third largest agricultural exporter, after the US and EU. What is more, Brazil’s new role as a major agricultural trader has provided an important foundation for its enhanced status and influence in global economic governance, as an emerging power and one of the ‘BRICS’. This paper analyses how such a remarkable transformation was brought about. I argue that Brazil’s emergence as an agricultural powerhouse was the result not of its natural factor endowments, but extensive intervention on the part of the Brazilian state that had the effect of constructing a new comparative advantage. This transformation was propelled by state-driven innovation and related policies that opened up massive new areas of the country to agriculture, enabled it to shift to producing goods in direct competition with the world’s dominant agricultural exporters, and generated significant gains in productivity and competitiveness. The irony is that the intention of these policies, initiated in the 1970s, was to foster industrial development in Brazil as part of its import-substitution industrialisation programme, yet they wound up having precisely the opposite effect – transforming Brazil into one of the world’s dominant agricultural powers.     

Who drives climate-relevant policies in the rising powers?

The future of human life on our planet is influenced increasingly by what goes on in the rising powers. This paper provides a political economy analysis of the climate-relevant policies of China, India, Brazil and South Africa. It shows that alliances play a key role in driving such policies. However, most actors who support such policies have priorities other than climate change mitigation. Their support for such policies comes from concerns with securing energy, building competitive green industries, creating jobs or providing a basis for future public revenue. This insight is not just of analytical but also of political importance. It means that climate-relevant policies can draw on support from a wide constituency – not just those with green convictions. Such analysis provides the stepping-stone for understanding the political feasibility of low-carbon transformations.     

大国市场及其特定优势

当今美国、中国、印度、俄罗斯、巴西等大国经济成就已令世界瞩目，研究大国经济崛起的规律已成为学术界的热点。本文主要通过研究大国市场的特征以及大国市场在大国经济发展过程中的特定优势，以期从大国市场的角度探索大国经济崛起的缘由。