财政支出差异性对创业活动的激励效应分析

经济新常态下，创业是推动中国经济发展、改善民生的重要途径。创业过程的风险性、不确定性及正外部性需要政府给予积极支持。基于2007-2015年中国内地30个省市（除西藏外）数据，运用动态面板模型，考察地区财政支出和创业活动的关系。研究结果表明：财政支出规模对创业活动数量及创业活动质量具有滞后的积极作用；财政支出规模的滞后效应源于财政支出结构的滞后效应，不同财政支出结构对创业活动质量影响的差异较大；同时，创新是提升创业活动质量的重要手段。因此，政府应积极支持“大众创业、万众创新”，各地区财政创业扶持资金应该从规模和结构上进行调整，重点优化有利于创新的支出结构，为创业提供良好的公共环境。     

Random regret minimization for consumer choice modeling: Assessment of empirical evidence

This paper introduces to the field of marketing a regret-based discrete choice model for the analysis of multi-attribute consumer choices from multinomial choice sets. This random regret minimization (RRM) model, which has recently been introduced in the field of transport, forms a regret-based counterpart of the canonical random utility maximization (RUM) paradigm. This paper assesses empirical results based on 43 comparisons reported in peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters, with the aim of finding out to what extent, when, and how RRM can form a viable addition to the consumer choice modeler's toolkit. The paper shows that RRM and hybrid RRM–RUM models outperform RUM counterparts in a majority of cases, in terms of model fit and predictive ability. Although differences in performance are quite small, the two paradigms often result in markedly different managerial implications due to considerable differences in, for example, market share forecasts.     

不确定性容忍度、决策逻辑与突破式创新关系研究

以位于武汉市产业园、孵化器、创业园等多家公司的255位产品开发及技术研发人员、市场开发人员为有效样本，采用层级回归方法探讨不确定性容忍度、决策逻辑与突破式创新的关系。结果表明:不确定性容忍度与突破式创新显著正相关；不确定性容忍度与因果逻辑显著负相关，与效果逻辑显著正相关；突破式创新与因果逻辑显著负相关，与效果逻辑显著正相关；因果/效果决策在不确定性容忍度与突破式创新关系中发挥部分中介作用；不确定性容忍度正向调节效果逻辑与突破式创新的关系，对因果逻辑与突破式创新的关系没有显著调节作用。研究结论对企业创新管理实践具有重要指导价值。     

Predicting bank insolvencies using machine learning techniques

Proactively monitoring and assessing the economic health of financial institutions has always been the cornerstone of supervisory authorities. In this work, we employ a series of modeling techniques to predict bank insolvencies on a sample of US-based financial institutions. Our empirical results indicate that the method of Random Forests (RF) has a superior out-of-sample and out-of-time predictive performance, with Neural Networks also performing almost equally well as RF in out-of-time samples. These conclusions are drawn not only by comparison with broadly used bank failure models, such as Logistic, but also by comparison with other advanced machine learning techniques. Furthermore, our results illustrate that in the CAMELS evaluation framework, metrics related to earnings and capital constitute the factors with higher marginal contribution to the prediction of bank failures. Finally, we assess the generalization of our model by providing a case study to a sample of major European banks.     

FDI与OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新的门槛效应研究

选取2003-2016年省域高技术产业面板数据，以R&D人员投入为门槛变量，实证分析FDI与OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新的非线性影响。得出以下稳健性结论：FDI和OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新具有双门槛效应，FDI溢出呈现先升后降的特征，而OFDI溢出则呈现先降后升特征；R&D人员投入、R&D资本积累、城镇化水平有利于高技术产业区域创新，而金融成熟度未产生明显推动作用；政府支持可能对R&D人力投入较高省份产生抑制作用；2003-2016年跨越R&D人员投入中、高门槛的省份在不断增加。     

因病致贫与缓冲效应的比较优势

当大病的自付医疗费用支出占家庭非食品支出的比例超过一定门槛值时，灾难性医疗支出发生，会增大因病致贫或返贫的概率。本文基于中国家庭追踪调查数据库（CFPS）2014年数据，利用A-F多维贫困测量方法有效识别贫困家庭，探究因病致贫发生率。大病冲击使贫困发生率增加15%，总财富减少6.9%。我们还发现医疗保险、社会资本及民间借贷对因病致贫都具有缓冲效应。这三种缓冲垫具有各自比较优势：医疗保险对中低收入家庭或中高疾病风险家庭缓冲效应显著；社会资本的缓冲效应只存在中高收入家庭或高风险疾病家庭；民间借贷只对低收入家庭具有缓冲效应。因此，家庭尤其是低收入家庭应合理利用缓冲垫，提高大病冲击的抵御能力，降低因病致贫的发生率。     

On the existence of the ex post symmetric random entry model

This paper studies symmetry among countably infinitely many agents who randomly enter into a stochastic process, one for each period. Upon entry, they observe only the current period signal and try to draw inference about the underlying state governing the stochastic process. We show that there exist random entry models under which agents are ex post symmetric. That is, all agents have identical posterior belief about the underlying states, although they are not ex ante symmetric. The form of the posterior belief is uniquely pinned down by ex post symmetry and a stationarity condition. Our results provide a common prior foundation for the model studied in Liu and Skrzypacz (2014).     

高科技企业研发投入同群效应研究

探讨高科技企业研发投入的同群效应，特别是企业面临的市场环境不确定性，以及体现制度环境的知识产权保护对高科技企业研发投入同群效应的影响。实证分析沪深A股2009—2017年高科技上市公司数据，结果表明：①高科技企业研发投入存在显著的同群效应；②环境不确定性显著负向调节高科技企业研发投入的同群效应，即环境不确定性弱化了企业研发投入的行业趋同；③知识产权保护显著正向调节高科技企业研发投入的同群效应，即知识产权保护强化了企业研发投入的行业趋同。结论丰富了企业研发投入同群效应研究成果，为考察企业所处外部市场与制度环境对企业研发投入同群效应的影响提供了新视角。     

Ex-post incentive compatible and individually rational assignments in housing markets with interdependent values

This paper presents a model for housing markets with interdependent values. We introduce private information on the quality of a house (i.e., high or low), which is known only to the initial owner. Interdependency means that the ex-post preference of an agent depends on the private information of the other agents with regard to the quality of houses. We prove that on a domain satisfying a richness condition, the no-trade rule is the only rule that satisfies ex-post incentive compatibility and ex-post individual rationality.     

How risky is a random process?

The riskiness of random processes is compared by (a) employing a decision theoretic equivalence between processes and lotteries on path-spaces to identify the riskiness of the former with that of the latter, and (b) using the theory of comparative riskiness of lotteries over vector spaces to compare the riskiness of lotteries on a given path-space. We derive the equivalence used in step (a) and contribute a new criterion to the theory applied in step (b). The validity of the new criterion, which applies second order stochastic dominance to utility distributions, is established by showing its equivalence to the benchmark decision theoretic criterion when comparing the riskiness of lotteries over any vector space. We demonstrate the theory’s tractability via diverse economic applications.