Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder

Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT).     

会计在风险管理中的作用

风险无处不在,如何在管理中规避或利用风险是企业成功的关键之一.企业应在分析风险成因的基础上,对风险计量、会计披露制度、会计信息的反馈控制功能在风险管理活动中的作用进行分析,从会计学角度采取风险管理的具体措施.     

An investigation of transformation-based prediction interval for the Weibull median life

Statistical inference based on the Weibull distribution, a distribution widely used in reliability and survival analysis, is usually difficult as it often involves numerical computation and approximation. However, this distribution can be transformed to near-normality by a simple power transformation. Based on this transformation, a prediction interval (PI) for its median can be easily constructed through an inverse transformation. The procedure for selecting the best power transformation through minimizing Kullback-Leibler information is described. The property of this transformation-based PI is investigated. Simple correction factors are also proposed. It is shown that the transformation-based PI with corrections performs well, irrespective of the sample size and parameter values. Simulation results show that the new PI generally outperforms the existing PI. Numerical examples are given for illustration.     

信息服务模式及网络利用

当今的用户获取信息的渠道越来越广,这使得信息服务面临着多方面的竞争。对于从事信息服务的工作者而言,如何让信息真正有效地服务于各行各业和广大用户,以及依据什么因素来选择恰当的服务模式与推动模式的更新都是非常重要的。文章初步探讨了信息服务模式的变化,以及网络在信息服务中的利用。     

转型与经济信息生产方式的演化创新

一定制度下的经济信息生产方式是决定其资源配置效率的重要基础。从制度或资源配置方式的转型角度,分析了经济信息生产方式与一定制度下资源配置的效率关系;指出与传统自由市场经济相对应的现行的会计、统计理论方法及其制度属于经济信息个体性生产方式,不适应以混合经济为特征的现代市场经济对经济信息的需求;最后以现代市场经济的混合经济特征为基点,从市场经济活动的广泛联系性、经济信息的公共物品性和满足社会需求出发,提出了建立经济信息社会化生产方式与制度模式的构想。     

安徽区域科技基础条件平台建设面临的问题与对策探讨

区域科技基础条件平台建设是一项复杂的系统工程,建设工作分为基础性工作和特色性工作的提法有助于地方政府分析条件平台建设的重点和难点.科技条件平台的核心功能之一是以科技资源共建共享的方式向社会提供共性技术尤其是产业共性技术.地方政府解决科技资源供给和需求之间的矛盾的关键在于对共性技术范围进行界定以及确定如何供给共性技术.     

试论我国证券投资基金稳定市场的功能

本文采用博弈分析方法 ,通过博弈模型 ,对虚假会计信息产生的条件、机制和影响因素等作了探讨。     

论高校图书馆的信息素质教育职能

信息时代的来临使信息素质成为人才综合能力的重要标志。面对信息浪潮的挑战 ,高校图书馆应充分认识到信息素质教育的重要性与自身优势 ,研究开展信息素质教育的方法 ,充分发挥信息素质教育的职能 ,义不容辞地承担起信息素质教育的重任     

Environmental Valuation with Imperfect Information The Case of the Random Utility Model

This paper considers welfare analysis with therandom utility model (RUM) when perceptions ofenvironmental quality differ from objectivemeasures of environmental quality. Environmental quality is assumed to be anexperience good, so that while perceptions ofquality determine choices, ex postutility is determined by objective quality. Given this assumption, I derive a measure ofthe welfare impact of changes in environmentalquality, and I show how this new welfaremeasure differs from the traditional welfaremeasure developed by Hanemann (1982). This newwelfare measure provides an approach tomeasuring the value of information aboutenvironmental quality within the framework ofthe random utility model.     

Ambient Taxes Under m-Dimensional Choice Sets, Heterogeneous Expectations, and Risk-Aversion

We consider the design of ambient taxes forrisk-neutral and risk-averse polluters whenpolluters and the regulatory agency haveasymmetric information about environmentalrelationships and probabilities associatedwith random events. Unlike prior work, we showthat under these conditions, optimal ambienttaxes must be firm-specific, and accompaniedby additional incentives to influencepolluters' choices of abatement techniques.