农业高新技术投资项目风险评价

The agricultural high-teeh investment project （AHIP） is eharaeterized by technology-intensive, high risk and great profit. This article analyzes essential factors of the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the traditional risk evaluation method of agrtcultral projects. We think that the applications of the sensitivity, analysis and probability ore defer. Therefore; this article introduces a structural model to evaluate the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the system of the concrete evaluation indexes.     

巨灾风险证券化及在中国保险市场的应用

在分析了巨灾风险的损失频率与损失幅度的特点、传统保险与再保险对抗巨灾风险的局限性等方面的基础上，重点介绍了巨灾风险证券的几种产品类型，分析了各种风险转移方式的优缺点。最后，根据中国保险市场的特点，从应用环境和应用条件两个方面提出了开展巨灾风险证券化应用的若干设想。     

Estimating Willingness to Pay for Improved Drinking Water Quality Using Averting Behavior Method with Perception Measure

This paper suggests an application of an averting behaviormethod to reconcile inconsistent public activity with objectiveenvironmental risk. In Korea, an historically polluted watersupply has created citizen resistance to using tap water. Koreansperceive low quality levels for tap water, although objectivelymeasured data show that the pollution levels are lower than theacceptable risk. We hypothesized that the irrational aversion tousing tap water is a consequence of inconsistencies between theobjectively measured and perceived pollution levels. We introducethe perception averting behavior method, in which we add aperception measure unit to the conventional averting behaviormethod. We found that the perception measure provided a validexplanation for citizens' aversion to using tap water in Korea.     

Incentive Contract and Weather Risk

We study contracts designed to remunerate a farmer for the production of an ecosystem service with the payment dependent on the results of the farmer’s actions and on weather conditions. Two contracts are proposed: the first takes into account both the results of the farmer’s actions and a weather variable that reflects the actual atmospheric conditions during the life of the contract; the second bases the payment on the results alone incorporating only the average effect of weather. Social welfare is optimal when both the results and the specific atmospheric conditions are taken into account; however, this type of contract may be less acceptable to the farmer due to his perception of the level of risk involved.We thank two referees for valuable comments.     

振兴东北老工业基地资本运营效益研究

现阶段,东北老工业基地存在着高消耗、低性能、低附加值、产品生产能力过剩等问题,因而,在市场经济的大潮中,造成了竞争力减弱、经济效益下滑的局面.发达国家的实践告诉我们,传统产业高科技化能改变这种局面,但高科技需要大量投入资本,故而需要研究传统产业高科技化资本运营的模式,从而降低高风险,实现高效益.     

Interbank Relationships and the Credit Channel in Germany

A crucial condition for the existence of a credit channel through bank loansis that monetary policy should be able to change bank loan supply. This papercontributes to the discussion on this issue by presenting empirical evidence fromdynamic panel estimations based on a dataset that comprises individual balancesheet information on all German banks. It shows that the average bank reduces itslending more sharply in reaction to a restrictive monetary policy measure the lowerits ratio of short-term interbank deposits to total assets. A dependence on its size canonly be found if explicitly controlled for this dominating effect. Overall, the evidenceis compatible with the existence of a credit channel but the results indicate that it is weakened by the network structures that exist in the German banking system.     

信用的生态学诠释与信用生态链的构建

生态学有逐渐与经济学相渗透、相融合的趋势，从而扩展了经济学的研究边界。本文从生态学的视角对信用加以研究，首先介绍了信用生态的理论内涵，其次研究了良好的社会信用生态环境的评价标准，最后对构建和谐的社会信用生态链提出了具体的对策措施。     

Can the Risks of the Kyoto Mechanisms be Reduced Through Portfolio Diversification? Evidence from the Swedish AIJ Program

Through Joint Implementationand the Clean Development Mechanism, reductionsof greenhouse gas emissions achieved abroad canbe credited to domestic firms. However, thetechnical, economic and political risksinvolved may prevent the private sector frominvesting in such projects. This paperdescribes three types of risks which emissionreduction projects are exposed to. Eleven pilotprojects carried out under the ActivitiesImplemented Jointly (AIJ) program and financedby Sweden are evaluated. Actual project costsare found to exceed projected costs in allcases. Annual emission reductions also deviatefrom their expected values and vary stronglyover time, supporting the hypothesis that suchprojects are risky business. The riskmanagement tool portfolio diversification isapplied to a sample of Swedish AIJ projects.The results indicate that diversification canreduce the risks of greenhouse gas mitigationprojects significantly. Thus, carbon funds area promising way of lowering the risks of theKyoto Mechanisms for private sector investors.     

Willingness to Pay to Reduce Mortality Risks: Evidence from a Three-Country Contingent Valuation Study

Valuing a change in the risk of death is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives. Typically such risks are monetized using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). Since the majority of the lives saved by environmental policies are those of older persons, there has been much recent debate about whether the VSL should be lower for the elderly to reflect their fewer remaining life years. We conducted a contingent valuation survey in the UK, Italy and France designed to answer this question. The survey was administered in these three countries following a standardized protocol. Our results suggest that the VSL is €1.022 million or €2.264 million, depending on whether we use median or mean WTP. The VSL is not significantly lower for older persons, but is higher for persons who have been admitted to a hospital or emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory problems. Income is positively and significantly associated with WTP. The income elasticities of the WTP increase gradually with income levels and are between 0.15 and 0.5 for current income levels in EU countries. We use the responses to the WTP questions to estimate the value of an extension in remaining life expectancy. The value of a loss of one year’s life expectancy is €54,000 or €163,000.     

论我国商业银行金融风险预警指标体系

当今，我国金融体制改革日益深化，商业银行风险日趋增大，因此，建立健全商业银行金融风险预警机制已成为当务之急，所探讨的预警指标体系正是借鉴了国外的先进经验，并结合我国商业银行的实际业务而设计的，它共包含八大部分，涵盖了商业银行的主要经营业务，对于有效监控我国商业银行金融风险，提高其抵御风险的能力具有重要意义。