Changes of Thai economy since 19701 1

Within the last 30 years, the number of Thai population increased from 35 million to 62 million, the general price level went up 6 times, and Thai currency baht devaluated 2.2 times against the dollar. The industrial production increased 36 times nominally. The biggest industry of Thailand changed from agriculture to manufacture, and the total value of exports jumped by 192 times and that of imports grew by 95 times. Thai current account balance had recorded a deficit every year from 1970 to 1996. During the same period of time, however, the capital account balance had shown surplus. The inflow of foreign capital was the only stronghold of Thai economy at that time. In 1997, Thailand suddenly experienced a total change of its external environment From then on, Thai current account shifted from a deficit to a surplus and Thai capital account turned from a surplus to a deficit. The conclusion of this paper indicates that the future of Thai economy is heavily dependent on whether the amount of surplus in Thai current account could surpass the deficit in Thai capital account     

石油企业集团跨国经营财务风险的对策研究

在我国石油企业跨国经营过程中,财务风险的严峻性日益凸显。目前我国石油企业集团跨国经营呈现区域广泛、业务范围复杂等特点,取得了突出的成果,同时面临严峻的石油价格风险、汇率风险、经济和投资风险。有必要从建立财务预警机制、监控海外投资风险、运用金融衍生工具避险等几方面对跨国经营中的财务风险进行有效防范和控制。     

Does conglomeration really reduce credit risk?

I quantify the effects of conglomeration on credit risk by first computing theoretical default probabilities for conglomerates and their hypothetical stand‐alone counterparts and then mapping them into physical probabilities using a comprehensive database of corporate failures. Comparing the credit risk of conglomerates with that of hypothetical stand‐alone firms, I report significant reductions in the annual probability of default for small firms. My results support the proposition that managers can have a strong incentive to engage in conglomeration, even if it reduces shareholder value and show for which firms this is the case.     

大型消防装备采购风险识别与规避

分析了大型消防装备采购风险来源及其成因,论述了风险识别的一般原则、基本步骤和主要方面,提出了大型消防装备采购过程中风险规避途径,对我国日趋增长的大型消防装备采购工作具有参考价值。     

INDIFFERENCE PRICE WITH GENERAL SEMIMARTINGALES

Using duality methods, we prove several key properties of the indifference price π for contingent claims. The underlying market model is very general and the mathematical formulation is based on a duality naturally induced by the problem. In particular, the indifference price π turns out to be a convex risk measure on the Orlicz space induced by the utility function.     

MULTIDIMENSIONAL DISTANCE‐TO‐COLLAPSE POINT AND SOVEREIGN DEFAULT PREDICTION

By focusing on sovereign defaults, this paper introduces a multidimensional distance‐to‐collapse point based on a two‐step procedure. The first step is nonparametric and provides an early warning system that signals a potential crisis whenever preselected leading indicators exceed specific thresholds. The second is parametric and incorporates the first‐step country default predictors within a probit specification. Such a two‐step procedure generalizes the distance‐to‐default à la Merton within a multidimensional setting, wherein we care about the distance of each indicator from its threshold. Empirical evidence about debt crises of emerging markets over the period 1975–2002 proves that our methodology predicts 80% of the total defaults and non‐defaults in and out of sample. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国企业对外投资风险管理研究

中国企业对外投资发展迅速,但是面临着体制性的风险和商业性的风险,因此在体制方面需要理顺中国对外投资管理体制,调整中国对外直接投资管理体系,降低体制性风险。企业需要建立对外投资风险管理体系、制定风险防范和管理策略,在此过程中充分发挥政府、行业协会等外部机构的作用。     

Renminbi exchange rate exposure: evidence from Chinese industries

This paper investigates sensitivity of stock returns of industry-sorted Chinese firms with respect to renminbi exchange rate movements. Strong evidence of significant exposure is documented for 7 out of 16 Chinese industries. Evidence is also found of the size asymmetry effects. In addition, we explore the characteristics of the exposure, and detect evidence of significant exposure among non-exporters in some of the industries. Special attention is given to examining the time-varying exposure under the impact of the new Chinese exchange rate regime in place since 2005, in which even stronger exchange rate exposure is reported. The conditional exposure estimated in this paper also reveals the close relation between stock returns and changes of the renminbi exchange rate.     

消费信贷的发展现状及促进建议——以陕西省为例

消费信贷是当今世界各国促进信用消费的主要形式,对经济增长具有积极意义。后金融危机时代,我国经济发展速度稳步上升,发展个人消费信贷是保持经济继续平稳较快发展的重要途径。本文在阐述消费信贷理论的基础上,对陕西消费信贷的现状和存在的问题进行分析,在借鉴美国消费信贷的经验及启示的基础上,有针对性地提出进一步发展消费信贷的对策和建议。     

浅析集团管控模式下内部审计风险防范

提出了在集团管控模式下的审计模式、范围拓展、风险意识、人员素质方面存在的内部审计风险,指出通过风险导向审计、内部控制制度审计、提高审计人员素质、规范审计业务、内部质量控制制度等措施来降低审计风险。