Co-breaking,cointegration, and weak exogeneity: Modelling aggregate consumption in Japan

This paper aims to estimate a parsimonious data-congruent model for aggregate real consumption in Japan using quarterly data over the past two decades. Testing co-breaking, cointegration and weak exogeneity plays an important role in pursuing the model reduction. It is demonstrated that co-breaking removes a deterministic shift caused by the collapse of the bubble economy in Japan in the early 1990s. Multivariate cointegration analysis then reveals that inflation plays a critical role in accounting for the long-run behaviour of the aggregate consumption. Further analysis finds that inflation and aggregate income are weakly exogenous with respect to a set of parameters of interest. Finally, a parsimonious data-congruent model for the aggregate consumption is estimated conditional on the set of weakly exogenous variables.     

非线性Leontief投入产出模型探析

基于经典（矩阵型）投入产出分析，引入了一类非线性（连续型）Leonfief投入产出模型和相应的投入产出方程及其相关的基本问题：模型的有效性（可解性）和连续性等。作为结果，以非线性分析为数学工具，给出了用企业的消耗算子所满足的边界性质描述的投入产出方程可解的若干充分性条件。     

Changing monetary transmission mechanisms within the EU

The paper presents a comparative analysis of monetary transmission mechanisms and changes in them after the secondERM in March 1983. The empirical model investigates the determination of money, income, prices, and interest rates in Germany, Denmark, and Italy based on the cointegratedVAR model. It provides empirical results on the macroeconomic effects of joining theERM and financial deregulation.     

Modelling the spot prices of various coffee types

We investigate long-run relationships among the spot prices of four coffee types. Two cointegrating vectors emerge: one between the prices of Arabica coffee varieties, and the other one between Unwashed Arabicas and Robusta. A persistence profile analysis shows a more rapid adjustment to equilibrium for the first compared to the second vector due to the fact that the former involves the Arabica coffees, which are more homogeneous. Adjustment is relatively fast, implying that economic forces act rapidly and discrepancies in the equilibrium relationships are short-lived. We also find evidence of non-linear adjustment back to equilibrium; when prices are too high, adjustment takes place at a slower rate than when they are too low.     

Market Integration of Fish in Europe

This paper examines market integration between fish species in Europe, taking international market integration into account. Based on Juselius (2006) , market integration is found both on the fresh and frozen markets. The Law of One Price is in force on the fresh market within the segments of flatfish and pelagic fish. Assuming transitivity, a loose form of market integration is identified between 13 fresh and seven frozen fish species, and the relative prices are found fairly stable. The policy implication is that catch limitation measures implemented through the Common Fisheries Policy have limited and conditional effects on prices, because of the large size of the market and varying market integration. Therefore, many fishermen are not ‘compensated’ by price increases as a result of catch limitation measures.     

Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan

This paper explores theoretically and empirically the medium- and long-run relation of the terms of trade (ratio of traded goods prices) and economic growth of a pair of countries—one of which experiences a major catch-up process towards the other. Two theoretical interdependencies between the terms of trade and economic growth are offered: the home-market effect and the productivity-shock effect. These two effects are tested against each other in a cointegration analysis on data for Japan and the US from 1971 until 1997. Income is cointegrated with the terms of trade. The relevant empirical channel is the home-market effect. However, financial-market effects appear also to be relevant. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (4) (2007) 470–488.     

Environmental regulation and trade pattern：a case of China

As a growing number of countries, including both developed and developing countries, have in recent yearstaken environmental regulation at different levels, a question of great concern has been raised： can the regulation alterthe existing trade volume and trade pattern, and ultimately drive pollution-intensive industries to countries with low-levelregulations or even those without regulations at all？ Starting from the three different propositions concerning therelationship between environmental regulation and trade pattern, this paper applies cointegration analysis and errorcorrection model to empirically testing the relationship between environmental regulation and trade in China during theperiod of 1985-2005. Our empirical results indicate that in the short run the collection of pollution discharge fees bearsa positive impact on the export share of clean products of total exports. Thus, higher pollution discharge fees raise theratio of clean products exports to total exports. This further indicates that more stringent environmental regulationpromotes the exports of clean products. In the long run pollution discharge fees are positively correlated with the exportshare of clean products but negatively associated with their import share. Such correlations imply that environmentalregulation tends to facilitate the international specialization in line with comparative advantages.     

上市公司股权制衡的混沌模型

上市公司股权结构问题一直是公司治理的焦点,目前的研究都运用线性研究方法,但其得出的结论往往很难解释呈现非线性的经济现象。本文的创新之处在于:运用新经济理论与混沌理论相结合的非线性思维的方法,利用最新的上市公司财务数据分析了大股东的最佳持股比例范围,设计了上市公司大股东持股的混沌模型,从而得出第一大股东持股比例范围在(0,19.21%)为佳,并在此基础上利用Logistic方程,构建了理想的上市公司股权制衡模型。     

Beyond the purchasing power parity: testing for cointegration and causality between exchange rates, prices, and interest rates

This paper reexamines the causality between the dollar and the yen in a multivariate framework with the aid of cointegration and error-correcting modeling for the 1951–94 period. The Phillips-Perron tests and Johansen's tests are performed. While causality from interest rates to exchange rates is found in the short run, no causality between prices and exchange rates is found in the short run. However, causality is found running from relative prices to exchange rates along with interest rates between the U.S. and Japan in the long run, which supports the long-run PPP hypothesis.     

Granger因果关系检验应用中的若干问题

分析了实践中应用Granger因果关系检验存在的一些问题,如信息遗漏,变量变换改变因果关系的性质、变量单整性对检验程序的影响以及检验模型的选择等,并提出在线性投影上有初步证据的因果概念。进而,应用单整变量之间Granger因果关系的一般检验程序对1978~2013年我国货币供给量与价格水平、产出之间的Granger因果性重新进行检验。