中国传媒产业的市场势力与规模经济——基于NEIO范式的实证研究

新经验产业组织分析（NEIO）是研究产业竞争性行为与绩效关系的一种实证范式。本文以目前传媒上市公司相关数据作为取样对象,运用NEIO模型重点分析保持产品差异前提下的市场势力和规模经济。结果显示：中国的传媒业上市公司存在显著的市场势力;在考虑企业之间生产差异率时,传媒产业上市公司显著地规模不经济;在考虑多年改制而带来的技术进步时,企业呈现出比较显著的规模经济效益。     

上海股票市场规模效应的实证研究

规模效应是指公司规模与收益率之间存在的反向关系,即小规模公司较大公司而言有着更高的收益率。本文从上海证券市场随机抽取60只股票作为数据样本,对其从2007年1月到2009年6月之间的公司数据进行实证研究,得出上海股市存在着规模效应这一结论。     

高校财务实证分析与预警——以重庆市高校为例

采用点面结合的方法,通过科学确定关键指标及权重,使高校财务风险的度量和评估有了较为科学的计量依据;首次将层次分析法和功效系数法相结合来研究财务预警模型,对高校财务进行实证分析,为高校的财务预警提供了准确度和可行性;提出了加强政府外部监管与高校管理内部控制相结合的风险控制和防范的建议。     

山东省农户自由借贷情况的实证分析及其新变化

我国农村自由借贷活动非常活跃,但由于经济发展差异,在不同省市的表现状态各不相同。文章从山东省入手来考查一般农户的自由借贷现状,并对其进行分析,最后总结出借贷情况在我国的新变化。     

越南国内经济增长对中、越双边贸易发展的贡献度分析

1986年越南实施了"革新开放"的新政策,并确立了以"社会主义定向的市场经济"作为其改革目标,20多年来,越南国内经济实现并保持了快速增长。1991年中越两国关系实现正常化,双边贸易合作取得了令人瞩目的成就,为维系和发展两国全面战略合作伙伴关系奠定了坚实的物质基础。实证研究进一步表明:越南国内经济增长是拉动中越双边贸易快速发展的重要"引擎"。     

农民工留城意愿影响因素的实证分析

本文采用2008年在浙江和江苏对农民工的抽样调查数据,运用Probit模型对影响农民工留城意愿的因素进行了分析。回归结果显示,女性比男性更倾向于留城定居,年龄对留城意愿的影响呈现倒“U”型,受教育程度对留城意愿具有显著的正向影响;有正在受教育的孩子、已婚但配偶不在同一城市等家庭因素具有显著的负向影响;在城市的社会融合程度和从业经历也会影响留城意愿,值得注意的是虽然经济因素在农村劳动力的外出决策中起着重要的作用,但已经不是影响农民工留城意愿的主要因素。     

区域经济一体化伙伴国的经济发展水平与本国经济增长关系的实证分析

本文以1990-2005年间的41个国家为样本,对区域经济一体化伙伴国的经济发展水平与本国经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,区域经济一体化伙伴国的经济发展水平与本国经济增长呈正相关关系,而伙伴国相对经济发展水平对于本国经济增长的促进作用更为明显;参与不同的区域经济一体化模式对本国经济增长有不同的影响,即参与南--北型和北--北型区域经济一体化有利于经济增长,参与南--南型区域经济一体化对经济增长的影响尚不确定。     

The deployment of temporary production workers in assembly operations: a case study of the hidden costs of learning and forgetting

The dynamics of workforce skill levels has a considerable impact on plant-level performance that is commonly overlooked by managers of manufacturing operations. In this study, we present a discrete event simulation model inspired by and validated in an actual manufacturing setting that includes short product life cycles, mid-volume production quantities, and a production environment consisting of assembly, inspection and testing.The effect of worker skill dynamics is analyzed using a factorial experimental design that contrasts the use of temporary versus permanent workers on manufacturing cost performance. The manufacturing costs assessed include labor, inspection and testing. The cost of reworking a defect is captured as an increase in the labor consumption. Materials costs are not assessed. At the core of the analysis, it is assumed that temporary workers have relatively less skill and therefore have higher average production times, higher average defect rates associated with their assembly activity, and lower rates of learning. In addition, the variance of the production time is higher for the temporary workers. Despite these indicators of performance problems, temporary workers may be used because of the considerably lower wage rate compared to permanent employees.Our in-depth case analyses shows that assigning skilled permanent workers to upstream build operations was superior to other policies deploying temporary workers, regardless of lot size or product complexity. Attesting to the importance of the labor mix component of manufacturing strategy, workforce deployment policies tended to dominate product switching frequency (a proxy variable for lot size and product mix) in impacting costs.     

经济开放对中国经济增长作用的实证分析

中国经济已经经历了20多年的高速增长,经济开放对中国的经济增长究竟作用如何?对这一问题的研究将为我国合理开放政策的选择提供有益的启示。本文基于索洛的经济增长模型,从外贸和外资两个角度出发,对中国1985-2004年的数据进行了回归分析。实证分析的结果表明:现阶段国内资本投入仍是促进中国经济增长的首要原因,相比之下,外贸和外资对中国经济增长的促进作用不大。     

Bivariate normal mixture spread option valuation

We discuss the pricing and hedging of European spread options on correlated assets when the marginal distribution of each asset return is assumed to be a mixture of normal distributions. Being a straightforward two-dimensional generalization of a normal mixture diffusion model, the prices and hedge ratios have a firm behavioural and theoretical foundation. In this ‘bivariate normal mixture’ (BNM) model no-arbitrage option values are just weighted sums of different ‘2GBM’ option values that are based on the assumption of two correlated lognormal diffusions, and likewise for their sensitivities. The main advantage of this approach is that BNM option values are consistent with both volatility smiles and with the implied correlation ‘frown’. No other ‘frown consistent’ spread option valuation model has such straightforward implementation. We apply analytic approximations to compare BNM valuations of European spread options with those based on the 2GBM assumption and explain the differences between the two as a weighted sum of six second-order 2GBM sensitivities. We also examine BNM option sensitivities, finding that these, like the option values, can sometimes differ substantially from those obtained under the 2GBM model. Finally, we show how the correlation frown that is implied by the BNM model is affected as we change (a) the correlation structure and (b) the tail probabilities in the joint density of the asset returns.