中国股票市场三因素模型的实证分析

本文以1995年7月-2010年6月沪深两市所有A股上市公司为样本,对我国市场是否存在规模效应,账面市值比效应(BE/ME)及Fama和French三因素模型是否能解释股票收益率的变动进行了实证分析。实证研究的结果证实(:1)我国股市存在着显著的规模效应和账面对市值比效应,(2)Fama和French三因素模型能够很好地解释我国股票收益率的横截面变动情况。     

上海股票市场波动的周内效应

周内效应研究是分析股票市场有效性的一个重要方面。本文基于股票市场的波动存在ARCH效应的事实，对上海股票市场是否存在周内效应进行检测，研究表明，上海股市存在“星期五效应”，星期五具有明显正的超额收益率。对于这种有别于其他股票市场的周内效应，笔者从市场结构和交易机制等方面给予了解释。     

含有利率因素的国内外期铜市场间联动性

文章以国内外利差为外生变量,运用向量自回归模型和日数据,对上海期铜和伦敦期铜之间的信息溢出现象进行了研究。研究发现,上海期铜与伦敦期铜市场之间具有长期均衡关系,且存在双向的价格引导关系但只存在伦敦到上海的单向的收益率引导关系。国内外利率之差与期铜价格和收益率都呈现正向引导关系。     

上海证券市场羊群行为及其演化

本文利用上证180发布历来的所有日收益率数据,实证研究了我国上海股票市场的羊群效应。结果发现,在上证180发布以来的整个区间内存在显著的羊群效应,且在股价上升时程度大于下降时,羊群效应随时间有下降的趋势。     

中国A股市场“小公司效应”的实证分析

本文以1995年1月至2003年12月期间在上海、深圳证券交易所交易的的全部A股股票为样本,分别以流通市值与总市值来衡量公司规模,对中国A股市场的“小公司效应”进行实证分析,研究表明:①作为规模度量的流通市值与总市值的选择对公司规模的排序没有显著影响。②最小规模公司股票组合获得显著的超额收益,且拥有最高的经风险调整后的收益(Sharpe比率),中国A股市场存在“小公司效应”。     

基于中信风格指数的股市规模效应分析

本文基于中信风格指数,对中国股市的规模效应现状展开分析。结论说明,从长期看,中国股市存在比较明显的规模效应,小市值股票回报率较高;在不同的时间段中,大市值股票和小市值股票交替领先;小市值股票的收益率较高,而大市值股票的波幅较缓。研究还证明,小市值股票与大市值股票的收益率差异在上涨时比下跌时更为显著。中国股市的规模效应成因主要可以归纳为“股价操纵”以及“收购效应”。     

制造业上市公司债权治理效应的实证分析

本文以1999～2009年我国制造业上市公司为研究对象,对其债权治理效应进行了实证分析,并以债务融资的存量指标(资产负债率)和流量指标(债务融资率)对公司绩效指标(净资产收益率与总资产收益率)进行回归分析,研究结果表明:制造业上市公司债务融资存在一定的公司治理效应,但债权治理效应的发挥与资产负债率的水平有关,而资产负债率与公司绩效呈"倒U型"关系。     

中国股票市场月交替效应及其影响因素研究

本文选取从2000年第一个交易日至2017年5月10日约18年的收益率数据为样本,探讨我国股票市场的月交替效应及其影响因素.研究发现,我国股票市场存在显著的月交替效应,且这种效应不只存在于大盘股或小盘股,也不仅局限于高价股或低价股;月交替效应并不由交替日的高风险所导致;月交替效应并不由年度交替或季度交替引起;月交替效应不仅仅存在于沪市,深市和港市也同样存在.     

沪深两市股票市场的Garch类模型分析

本文采用EGARCH(1,1)模型和Granger因果检验分别对我国沪、深两个股票交易市场2001年2月到2006年的3月期间的股票价格指数的日度数据进行了分析。EGARCH(1,1)模型表明这两个市场股指收益率存在条件异方差、持久的波动聚类现象和杠杆效应。Granger因果检验则说明两市场波动之间则存在双向的Granger因果关系,即两个市场之间表现出对称的波动溢出效应。     

农业上市公司财务杠杆效应分析

文章以农业上市公司为例,研究财务杠杆效应的核心指标——净资产收益率的影响因素,并通过回归分析方法确定各影响因素的显著性和相关性。通过样本公司2010—2012年相关数据的实证分析得出农业上市公司净资产收益率与产权比率、债务利息率呈不显著的负相关关系,与息税前资产收益率呈显著的正相关关系,为农业上市公司合理运用财务杠杆提供相应依据。     

最小报价单位、价格水平与流动性——基于上海股市的实证研究

最小报价单位是证券市场交易机制设计的重要组成部分。与许多市场不同 ,我国证券市场采取单一的最小报价单位。本文利用上海股市的高频日内数据 ,对中国证券市场中最小报价单位对不同价格水平股票的流动性的影响进行了实证研究 ,研究结果表明适度提高高价股票的最小报价单位可能通过提高报价深度而促进这类股票的流动性。     

Disclosure quality,price efficiency,and expected returns

Using a composite disclosure quality measure, we examine the effect of disclosure quality on price delay and the effect of price delay determined by disclosure quality on expected returns in the Taiwan stock market. We find that higher disclosure quality can reduce stock price delay through more investor attention and higher stock liquidity after we control for accounting quality variables and consider the endogeneity issue. Furthermore, we show that disclosure quality reduces expected stock returns through the price efficiency channel associated with both investor attention and stock liquidity. Our results indicate that increasing a firm’s standardized information rating by one standard deviation can reduce its expected stock return by 0.63% annually. Taken together, our evidence suggests that regulatory activities enforced to improve public firms’ disclosure quality in the Taiwan stock market can make the stock market more efficient and therefore lower investors’ required return for stocks.     

CAPM模型在股票价格分析中的实证研究

对经典的CAPM模型进行变化后,形成一个一元线性回归模型,再从上海证券交易所A股中随机抽取一支股票进行回归分析,发现CAPM是有效的,且个股收益率与组合收益呈较明显的正相关关系,同时,通过对截距项20分析,比较股票的预期收益率与实际收益率的大小,分析股价的走势,据此指导中小投资者进行投资决策。     

Investor co-attention and stock return co-movement: Evidence from China’s A-share stock market

This study attempts to link investor co-attention to stock return co-movement in China's A-share stock market. On the one hand, stock price will co-move for stocks within the same industry and within the same market, which is labelled “return co-movement”. On the other hand, investor attention will also co-move as investors systematically search for relevant information for stocks of similar characteristics or as the stocks experience common information shocks, which is termed “investor co-attention”. The empirical evidence suggests that stock return co-movement can be explained by investor co-attention to a great extent, even after controlling for stock fundamentals and firm characteristics, and this effect is more salient for stocks with lower institutional ownership. Moreover, we employ large national lottery jackpots as exogenous shocks to investor attention. The empirical findings show that the co-movement of both investor attention and stock return increase on large lottery jackpot days, while investor co-attention contributes less to return co-movement on large lottery jackpot days. In summary, we offer an alternative explanation for return co-movement by observing the causal relationship between investor co-attention and stock return co-movement.     

The role of the seller’s stock performance in the market reaction to divestiture announcements

Divestitures have the potential to create shareholder value. However, the extent of the market reaction should depend on the likelihood of finding more valuable uses for the divested assets or the ability on the part of the seller to eliminate negative synergies. We hypothesize that strong performers have less scope to achieve substantial improvements compared to poorly performing firms. Using the seller’s stock return in excess of the market return in the 1-year and 2-year periods preceding the divestiture announcement to expose the divesting firm’s inefficient use of its assets, we show that the market reaction to divestiture announcements is significantly higher for underperforming firms. The difference in abnormal returns can be as high as 4 %. In contrast, none of the accounting-based variables that have been used in previous studies are found to be significantly related to the announcement returns. These results suggest that the firm’s stock performance is a more useful indicator of the wealth effect associated with divestitures.     

基于自回归条件异方差模型的上证指数收益波动分析

股票市场的股价波动会引起股价指数的涨跌。本文基于计量经济学的自回归条件异方差模型,对上证指数2007年以来的1276个交易日的样本数据进行实证研究。结果表明:上证指数收益序列具有尖峰厚尾特征和波动的时段集群特征,适合利用自回归条件异方差模型进行分析及预测。研究结果为各方从不同角度把握上证指数收益波动的规律提供了股票投资理论和方法。     

The product‐market performance benefits of environmental policy: Why customer awareness and firm innovativeness matter

Researchers have widely studied the nexus between corporate environmental (“green”) policy and its green performance and firm financial performance, but with mixed findings. A potential explanation for these mixed findings is the focus of extant studies on the direct and immediate impact of environmental performance on financial performance to the exclusion of firm‐specific boundary conditions. Furthermore, all prior research study the effect of environmental performance on either stock market‐based performance measures (i.e., stock return) or accounting‐based performance measures (i.e., return on assets). A missing third dimension of firm performance, product–market‐based performance (i.e., market share), has so far remained unexplored despite representing a crucial objective when innovating. Using Newsweek's annual green ranking as a novel measure of environmental performance for a panel of U.S. firms from 2010 to 2015, this paper attempts to fill these voids in the literature. The results show a positive relationship between firms' environmental performance and market share as a measure of product–market‐based performance. The findings further demonstrate that this relationship is positively moderated by the level of customer awareness and innovativeness of the firm: The higher the level of awareness of a firm's environmental credentials and innovativeness, the stronger the effects of environmental performance on market share. Our results are robust against endogeneity concerns and alternative measures of firm financial and environmental performance.     

Firm Characteristics and Chinese Stocks

This paper presents a comprehensive study on predicting the cross section of Chinese stock market returns with a large panel of 75 individual firm characteristics. We use not only the traditional Fama-MacBeth regression, but also the “big-data” econometric methods: principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS), and forecast combination to extract information from all the 75 firm characteristics. These characteristics are important return predictors, with statistical and economic significance. Furthermore, firm characteristics that are related to trading frictions, momentum, and profitability are the most effective predictors of future stock returns in the Chinese stock market.     

Liquidity and asset pricing: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets

We introduce a novel two-factor model, incorporating market and liquidity factors, which outperforms the CAPM and Fama–French factor models when applied to stock market returns in Shanghai and Shenzhen over 2000–2019. We compute the liquidity factor as the return on a liquidity-mimicking portfolio, which we construct simultaneously using two measures of liquidity (one of them capturing liquidity’s trading-quantity dimension, and the other associated with its price-impact dimension). Unlike the CAPM and Fama–French factor models, the advocated two-factor model is able to account for numerous return anomalies, such as size, book-to-market ratio, earnings-to-price ratio, cash-flow-to-price ratio, return-on-equity, and volatility. The model’s performance is similar when applied separately to the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Furthermore, it fares similarly over the 1994–2004 and 2005–2019 sub-periods. This result is somewhat surprising, because liquidity seems likely to have been substantially lower over 1994–2004, as the Chinese markets were noticeably smaller, and the critical market reform aimed at eliminating non-tradable shares by the end of 2006 did not occur until 2005.