Single Stock Futures as a Substitute for Short Sales: Evidence from Microstructure Data

Abstract:  We examine how the introduction of single-stock futures impacts short sale costs and short interest levels in the underlying spot market. We find that short selling in the underling securities declines, after futures are introduced, the cost of borrowing stock for short sales declines and the available unborrowed supply of lendable shares increases. These results are consistent with futures exchanges providing a low-cost substitute market for establishing short positions. Microstructure evidence also suggests that the lower cost and greater ease of short selling via futures markets draws informed traders from the spot market.     

关于现代商业促销中存在问题及其对策分析

目前商业竞争激烈，商业促销活动混乱，甚至存在欺瞒消费者的现象，针对此类问题，我们认为应当通过市场监管、企业创新、商业策划等方式予以规范，起到净化市场环境，形成公平竞争的氛围。     

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework

This article uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting U.S. home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, price of homes, mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict U.S. home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.     

More Facts about Prices: France Before and During the Great Recession

Using microprice data, we document new facts on price rigidity in France: (i) each month 20.1% of prices are changed, which compares to 24.1% in the United States—excluding sales, however, the fraction of prices modified each month is about the same in France and in the United States (around 17%); (ii) the distribution of price changes is quite dispersed; (iii) the frequencies of price increases and decreases contribute a lot to inflation variations, and price increases are more frequent in January (even when sales are excluded); (iv) sales contribute significantly to the volatility of inflation but play a minor role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations to prices; and (v) during the Great Recession patterns of price adjustment were only slightly modified.     

随机需求下供应链协调的联合契约模型研究

市场需求为随机需求且受零售价格与销售努力影响的条件下,讨论了三级供应链契约协调问题,设计了基于数量折扣契约和收益共享契约的联合契约模型.证明了通过合理设置契约参数,可以实现供应链整体利润的最优化和各成员利润的帕累托改进,并用一个算例分析了契约参数对供应链各成员利润的影响.     

Contracting Under Endogenous Risk

Agents make decisions by trading off cost, return and risk. The literature, however, does not consider the impact of risk on action choice. We show that this tradeoff has important implications for the firm. First, the firm may provide no insurance in the salary. Since the agents action choice will determine her risk, the salary cannot compensate her for it. Second, the firm may not be able to design an incentive scheme to implement particularly risky actions. Finally, the firm may not be able to design a scheme in which the agent splits her effort across multiple tasks. This is particularly problematic for tasks that are technological substitutes.     

Supervising the Unethical Selling Behavior of Top Sales Performers: Assessing the Impact of Social Desirability Bias

This study measures social desirability bias (SD bias) by comparing the level of discipline sales managers believe they would administer when supervising unethical selling behavior with the level of discipline they perceive other sales managers would select. Results indicate the presence of SD bias; the sales manager respondents consistently claimed that they would be stricter while their peers would be more lenient. Using an analytical technique that takes social desirability bias into account, it appears that sales managers use of discipline is affected by the sales performance of the salesperson being disciplined resulting in more lenient discipline for top sales performers. In addition, the more lenient treatment for top sales performers persists even when there is a pattern of a prior ethical infraction and the existence of an explicit organizational policy proscribing the act in question. Sales managers believe that, like themselves, others would be stricter when an unethical act is committed for the second time but not as strict as they personally would be. A within-subjects interaction effect indicates more SD bias under the condition of the unethical act being committed for the second time.     

Consumer Self-Confidence in Wine Consumers: The Role of Knowledge-Based Factors

This study uses the Wine Self-Confidence Scale (WSCS) with a sample of 297 customers of ABC Fine Wine and Spirits, a Florida-based retailer, to examine aspects of self-confidence in wine purchasing. The results indicate that two knowledge-based self-confidence factors (information knowledge and persuasion knowledge) were predominant for these consumers. The study showed strong support for the WSCS, which was developed as a measure of self-confidence in wine buying by Olsen, Thompson, and Clarke (2003) and how these relate to reliance on personal experience.     

The Link Between Gasoline Prices and Vehicle Sales

This paper examines the link between fuel prices and sales of cars and trucks. U.S. automakers have long denied that such a link exists. One source of this false belief is an obsession with the crude count of units sold, equating Hummers with Minis. Another source is the conventional “wisdom” that Americans are unwilling to pay for fuel economy. The paper presents theoretical reasons and market evidence that refute Detroit’s conventional wisdom. American manufacturers’ reaction to rising fuel prices over the last few years revealed the shortcomings of the U.S. automakers’ recent product and powertrain strategies. The effect of rising fuel prices has, in effect, been offset by reducing prices of vehicles in inverse proportion to fuel economy. Thus, unit sales of large SUVs could be maintained, but their revenue (and profit) fell because vehicle prices were cut, directly or indirectly. The paper concludes with a few practical guidelines that business economists should use to prevent their companies from experiencing the recent massive losses experienced by the U.S. automobile industry. JEL Classification D120     

基于多元化战略的集团公司销售协同探讨

本文认为,多元化战略是很多大型集团公司采用的经营方式,也是实现协同效应的重要方式,同时协同效应是实施多元化战略的重要动因。销售协同的关联存在于销售活动价值链的各个环节,且相关多元化公司更容易找到这种关联。不同协同方式各有特点及适用条件,公司应考虑其产品类型、经营区域、目标客户及公司战略等因素来选择恰当的方式。文章提出,在实现销售协同的过程中应注意以下问题:不同协同方式如品牌延伸、人员共享与跨部门使用、销售基础设施共享、共享物流、建立销售子公司等有各自的优劣势和适用条件。在实施销售协同过程中应该注意由高层推动与设定共同战略目标,创造良好的环境氛围,选择恰当的协同方式,建立有效的评价激励制度等方面的问题。