利用频移动态特征的辐射源目标盲分选

利用辐射源目标的频移动态特征进行盲分选时，针对已有的分选方法不能很好解决非合作接收数据非周期、间断、交叠的问题，提出了一种改进的逻辑回归分选算法,将信号分选转化为轨迹分类的问题来处理。首先，借鉴多目标航迹起始模型中的M/N逻辑法的框架，设计新的数据关联门限，以建立目标起始曲线；其次，采用最小二乘拟合方法替代卡尔曼滤波，设计新的外推规则，建立载频变化预测曲线；分析新的接收数据与预测曲线的关联性，不断迭代回归或形成新的分支，最后获得目标分选结果。仿真与实测试验表明，利用逻辑回归分选算法，对不同运动目标搭载的同频辐射源可进行自动分选，4个仿真目标与2个真实目标的分选正确率达到100%。同时，该方法拓展了辐射源目标盲分选中的动态频移特征应用，为辐射源个体识别提供了新的支持。     

The Insurance Is the Lemon: Failing to Index Contracts

We model the widespread failure of contracts to share risk using available indices. A borrower and lender can share risk by conditioning repayments on an index. The lender has private information about the ability of this index to measure the true state that the borrower would like to hedge. The lender is risk-averse and thus requires a premium to insure the borrower. The borrower, however, might be paying something for nothing if the index is a poor measure of the true state. We provide sufficient conditions for this effect to cause the borrower to choose a nonindexed contract instead.     

Identifying Price Reviews by Firms: An Econometric Approach

Price reviews are a potentially costly activity. A significant fraction of unchanged prices may stem from firms not reviewing prices, rather than from obstacles to changing prices per se, such as menu costs. In this paper, we disentangle these two causes of price stickiness by estimating an inflated ordered probit model on a panel of French manufacturing firms. The results point to a low frequency of price reviews, suggestive of the relevance of information costs as a determinant of the observed price stickiness. In view of the “inattentive producers” literature, pointing that the source of price rigidity matters, this is suggestive of a large real effect of monetary policy.     

Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals

This paper examines the role of nonfundamentals‐based sentiment in house price dynamics, including the well‐documented volatility and persistence of house prices during booms and busts. To measure and isolate sentiment's effect, we employ survey‐based indicators that proxy for the sentiment of three major agents in housing markets: home buyers (demand side), home builders (supply side), and lenders (credit suppliers). After orthogonalizing each sentiment measure against a broad set of fundamental variables, we find strong and consistent evidence that the changing sentiment of all three sets of market participants predicts house price appreciation in subsequent quarters, above and beyond the impact of changes in lagged price changes, fundamentals, and market liquidity. More specifically, a one‐standard‐deviation shock to market sentiment is associated with a 32–57 basis point increase in real house price appreciation over the next two quarters. These price effects are large relative to the average real price appreciation of 71 basis points per quarter observed over the full sample period. Moreover, housing market sentiment and its effect on real house prices is highly persistent. The results also reveal that the dynamic relation between sentiment and house prices can create feedback effects that contribute to the persistence typically observed in house price movements during boom and bust cycles.     

More Facts about Prices: France Before and During the Great Recession

Using microprice data, we document new facts on price rigidity in France: (i) each month 20.1% of prices are changed, which compares to 24.1% in the United States—excluding sales, however, the fraction of prices modified each month is about the same in France and in the United States (around 17%); (ii) the distribution of price changes is quite dispersed; (iii) the frequencies of price increases and decreases contribute a lot to inflation variations, and price increases are more frequent in January (even when sales are excluded); (iv) sales contribute significantly to the volatility of inflation but play a minor role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations to prices; and (v) during the Great Recession patterns of price adjustment were only slightly modified.     

Private labels and public quality standards: How can consumer trust be restored after the mad cow crisis?

In those sectors faced with questions of food safety (meat, fruit, vegetables), new private labels have been set up in Europe in order to restore consumer trust. In this paper, we perform a theoretical analysis of these private labels. We propose an original model of vertical relationships between producers and retailers which takes into account two supply sources through (i) a competitive spot market on which the retailers buy a minimum quality standard product and (ii) supply contracts aimed at marketing higher quality private labels. We study how producers and retailers could cooperate in setting up these new labels. From a public point of view, we show the complementarity of a moderate increase in public quality standards and the creation of these new private labels. JEL Classification L22. L23. Q13. Q18     

重大工程高层管理团队冲突、行为整合与工程绩效研究

为揭示重大工程高管团队冲突对工程绩效的作用机理,构建了以重大工程高管团队冲突为自变量、行为整合为中介变量、工程绩效为因变量的中介模型,并通过215位高管问卷样本进行实证研究,实证结果表明重大工程高管团队任务冲突对工程绩效有显著的正向影响,关系冲突对工程绩效有显著的负向影响。合作行为和信息交换和在团队冲突和工程绩效之间存在显著的部分中介效应。     

北京市区域商贸业竞争力演化研究

北京市区域商贸业发展是推动“四个中心”建设、提升北京市经济实力的重要途径,也是实现京津冀协调发展的客观要求.从经济环境、规模、基础设施、成长性、支撑服务5个维度选取23个指标构建了北京市商贸业竞争力评价指标体系,以北京市区域2012年～2015年面板数据为研究样本,运用因子分析方法评估了北京市区域商贸业的综合竞争力,明确其竞争力演化情况.研究结果表明:北京市的首都核心功能区商贸业竞争力逐渐减弱;城市功能拓展区中的朝阳区、丰台区商贸业竞争力逐渐减弱,海淀区和石景山区商贸业竞争力逐渐增强;城市发展新区中的通州区商贸业竞争力逐年增强,大兴区和房山区商贸业竞争力逐年减弱,顺义区扣昌平区商贸业竞争力未出现较大波动;生态涵养发展区商贸业竞争力持续减弱.根据区域商贸业竞争力演化情况,提出了提高北京市区域商贸业竞争力的对策建议.     

Public Information and Coordination: Evidence from a Credit Registry Expansion

This paper provides evidence that lenders to a firm close to distress have incentives to coordinate: lower financing by one lender reduces firm creditworthiness and causes other lenders to reduce financing. To isolate the coordination channel from lenders' joint reaction to new information, we exploit a natural experiment that forced lenders to share negative private assessments about their borrowers. We show that lenders, while learning nothing new about the firm, reduce credit in anticipation of other lenders' reaction to the negative news about the firm. The results show that public information exacerbates lender coordination and increases the incidence of firm financial distress.     

Language Skills and the Earnings Distribution Among Child Immigrants

In this paper, we estimate the language effects on the earnings distribution among child immigrants. Utilizing U.S. Census data, we find: (1) there exists a larger heterogeneity in language premiums across the earnings distribution, and the patterns change over time (2) occupation and education channels explain most of the language effects and the large heterogeneity in them. However, the importance of these two channels has decreased over time.