服务出口与实际汇率动态关系分析:基于美国数据的考察

基于代表性家庭追求效用最大化,文中构建了一个由外国实际收入、汇率水平、货物出口以及经GARCH(1,1)模型估计所得条件方差作为汇率风险代理变量组成的服务出口方程。采用自回归分布滞后估计方程参数,并将汇率变动影响货物出口进而传导至服务出口的间接效应纳入分析框架。估计结果显示,汇率水平变动与服务出口之间存在负相关关系,而汇率风险却有助于推动服务出口;汇率变动对服务出口的累积净效应表明,汇率水平变动是汇率变动对服务出口最终影响效应的主导因素。最后从我国汇率变动与服务贸易发展角度也证实了该结论。     

我国房地产业与金融保险业产业关联度的地区比较

本文借助投入产出模型研究我国不同区域房地产业与金融保险业的产业关联度特征。结果显示,不论经济发展水平如何,我国房地产业与金融保险业的产业关联度均位居其它产业的前列,说明在国民经济内部,这两个产业的产业关联关系过于密切,从而可能对当地国民经济产生较大的影响,对于以北京为代表的发达地区尤为典型,应当引起警示。     

加强宏观调控,促进房地产业健康发展

比较了国内外对房地产业进行宏观调控的情况,探讨了有关宏观调控的政策问题,指出制定房地产宏观调控政策要以地方政府为主,审时慎重地做好调研工作。     

The assignment of call option rights between partners in international joint ventures

We examine call option rights as a contractual clause in international joint ventures (IJVs) and propose that the assignment of the call option right in an IJV is determined by certain ex ante asymmetries between the partners. Results show that between the two partners in an IJV, the firm with greater complementarity with the venture and greater prior IJV experience is more likely to hold the call option right; in addition, the firm's contractual choice on the call option right and its ownership choice on a greater initial equity stake are substitutive. Our focus on explicit call options advances the real options theory of collaborative agreements, and our results also highlight that option rights be considered an important part of alliance design. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hedge fund seeding via fees-for-seed swaps under idiosyncratic risk

We develop a dynamic valuation model of the hedge fund seeding business by solving the consumption and portfolio-choice problem for a risk-averse manager who launches a hedge fund through a seeding vehicle. This vehicle, i.e. fees-for-seed swap, specifies that a strategic partner (seeder) provides a critical amount of capital in exchange for participation in the funds revenue. Our results indicate that the new swap not only solves the serious problem of widespread financing constraints for new and early-stage funds (ESFs) managers, but can be highly beneficial to both the manager and the seeder if structured properly.     

Test for the real option in consumer behavior

Consumers become indecisive when facing too many choices. Economic analysis suggests that when a decision involves uncertain outcome, can be delayed and is irreversible, there will be a real option in the cost–benefit analysis. For example, the option to keep alive a consumer's purchasing decision has a significant value. It allows the consumer to take advantage of any future advantageous deals while avoiding the bad choices. This renders the consumer more hesitant. When a consumer decides to exercise his buying decision, he demands a compensation for the loss of this option. Hence, the benefits of a purchase must be over and above its costs by a wide margin (the option value). Data from a survey at a Turkish university on hypothetical purchase decisions confirmed the existence of this real option. We conclude with marketing policy recommendations and future research directions. Connection to the Prospect Theory is briefly explored.Note: Although the 3rd person singular pronoun he/his was used throughout to describe the consumer, he was intended to be gender-neutral.     

土地增值税清算困难的原因与对策

我国实行土地增值税已十多年，但没有收到预期的效果。土地增值税清算困难的主要原因是房地产开发形式多样、开发周期跨度长，房地产开发企业核算不规范、债务关系复杂，以及部分企业虚构工程项目和工作量，虚增成本费用。要强化土地增值税清算必须严格审验清算制度，打击偷逃税行为。     

The Provision of Liquidity in the Swedish Note Banking System, 1878–1901

Abstract

The working of the “asset currency” provided by the Swedish note banking system in 1878–1901 is described. Natural and institutional conditions caused the demand for currency to peak in March and September, with troughs in July and January. The paper investigates how the Enskilda banks provided liquidity to solve the problem. This is done by describing how the volume of notes varied over the year, and how other balance sheet items co-moved with them. Strong seasonal co-variation is found particularly between lending and foreign payments media, varying like communicating vessels over the sailing season in May–October (when the sea was ice free and shipments were made).     

虚拟经济对实体经济的影响及对策

随着经济货币化程度的不断加深和日益深化的金融改革,虚拟经济发展迅速。文章阐述了虚拟经济和实体经济的内涵和特征,分析了虚拟经济对实体经济产生的影响,并针对消极影响提出了我国发展虚拟经济的对策和建议。     

影响中国房地产市场发展的主要制度安排研究

影响我国房地产市场的主要制度安排有五种：房地产住房供给和保障制度、房地产土地供给制度、房地产金融制度、房地产税收制度和存在于我国居民购房行为中的非正式制度。本文对这些制度安排的主要内容及其变迁做了分析，并研究了这些制度安排对我国房地产发展的影响。