中国货币政策效果区域不对称性探讨

探讨中国货币政策效果的区域差异对于研究完善货币政策传导机制具有较强的实践意义。文章通过数据的聚类分析和模型设计对中国货币政策效果的区域差异进行了实证分析,结果显示东部地区的传导效果最为显著。对此文章阐述了地区差异的形成原因,并提出了相应的治理方法。     

信息不对称条件下银行业市场结构与市场竞争研究综述

将信息不对称理论纳入银行业市场竞争模型是当前跨经济学与金融学两个领域的热点问题。本文从理清产业组织理论中银行业市场结构与竞争和现代金融学中银行业信息不对称研究的发展脉络出发,对信息不对称与银行信息垄断和市场进入壁垒、信息不对称条件下银行的市场竞争行为等文献进行综述,评估银行业市场竞争程度的测量方法和实证分析结果。希望此综述对未来进一步的研究有所启示。     

中国健康险市场逆向选择和正向选择并存现象的研究

本文以中国的健康险市场为例,考察不对称信息的影响。通过考察投保人投保金额以及附加险选择和索赔情况的相关关系,论文发现事后出现索赔的投保人,事前往往会选择购买附加险,但是投保金额却相对较低。结合理论模型分析,论文认为投保人在财富、风险偏好等方面的异质性以及信息不对称的存在是导致市场同时出现逆向选择和正向选择的主要原因。     

How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Mexico?

This article empirically examines the importance of the credit channel of monetary policy in Mexico for the period 2004–2013. We estimate a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse the effects of a monetary policy shock on real output, and we also use a threshold VAR model to investigate asymmetric effects of contractionary and expansionary policies. The empirical results suggest that a contractionary monetary policy results in a fall in the supply of loans together with an increase in the spread between the lending and deposit rate. To the extent that some borrowers are dependent on bank loans for credit, the reduced supply of loans amplifies the effects of monetary policy on output associated with the traditional interest rate channel. Our results also suggest that the importance of the credit channel is larger for contractionary shocks than for expansionary shocks.     

The Reluctant Analyst

We estimate the dynamics of recommendations by financial analysts, uncovering the determinants of inertia in their recommendations. We provide overwhelming evidence that analysts revise recommendations reluctantly, introducing frictions to avoid frequent revisions. More generally, we characterize the sources underlying the infrequent revisions that analysts make. Publicly available data matter far less for explaining recommendation dynamics than do the recommendation frictions and the long‐lived information that analysts acquire but the econometrician does not observe. Estimates suggest that analysts structure recommendations strategically to generate a profitable order flow from retail traders. We provide extensive evidence that our model describes how investors believe analysts make recommendations, and that investors value private information revealed by analysts' recommendations.     

发展森林保险的政策研究

林业是国民经济的重要基础产业,也是为社会提供生态产品的重要公益事业,但是林业生产面临巨大的自然灾害风险。森林保险是重要的林业风险保障机制,但由于其准公共产品的性质和信息不对称等原因,森林保险在我国的发展历经曲折,严重滞后于林业发展对风险保障的巨大需求。通过对森林保险的经济学分析和对国外森林保险制度的研究和借鉴,本文认为建立政策性森林保险机制对于我国森林保险事业的发展具有重要的意义,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

保险市场逆向选择与顺向选择共存研究

保险市场存在着逆向选择。经典逆向选择模型认为,风险高的人会购买更多的保险,但大多数实证研究表明保险市场还存在顺向选择。本文认为,逆向选择和顺向选择虽然对立,但共存于保险市场,在此基础上构建保险市场均衡模型,并进行了仿真研究。     

Anonymity,Stealth Trading,and the Information Content of Broker Identity

This paper examines whether the identity of a broker involved in transactions contains information. Using a sample of transactions from the Australian Stock Exchange—where broker identity is transparent—we provide evidence that consecutive buyer‐/seller‐initiated transactions by the same broker have a relatively high permanent price impact. This implies that broker identity conveys information to market participants, and that markets in which broker identity is disclosed are likely to be more efficient. We also find that medium‐sized trades by the same broker convey greater information than large and small trades, which is consistent with stealth trading by informed investors.     

A High‐Frequency Investigation of the Interaction between Volatility and DAX Returns

One of the most noticeable stylised facts in finance is that stock index returns are negatively correlated with changes in volatility. The economic rationale for the effect is still controversial. The competing explanations have different implications for the origin of the relationship: Are volatility changes induced by index movements, or inversely, does volatility drive index returns? To differentiate between the alternative hypotheses, we analyse the lead‐lag relationship of option implied volatility and index return in Germany based on Granger causality tests and impulse‐response functions. Our dataset consists of all transactions in DAX options and futures over the time period from 1995 to 2005. Analyzing returns over 5‐minute intervals, we find that the relationship is return‐driven in the sense that index returns Granger cause volatility changes. This causal relationship is statistically and economically significant and can be clearly separated from the contemporaneous correlation. The largest part of the implied volatility response occurs immediately, but we also observe a smaller retarded reaction for up to one hour. A volatility feedback effect is not discernible. If it exists, the stock market appears to correctly anticipate its importance for index returns.     

非对称网络权力与产业网络的空间组织——以我国台湾地区流行音乐产业网络为例

本文探讨了产业网络中非对称网络权力的形成机理,构建了非对称网络权力与产业网络空间组织间相互关系的理论分析框架,并从我国台湾地区流行音乐产业网络案例的分析获得实践支撑。结论表明:在产业网络中企业因要素占有或支配能力差异,形成由技术权力区、渠道权力区和权力塌陷区构成的非对称网络权力,产业网络的组织层级与空间层级间呈现相互对应的海默关系,而企业空间组织行为的区位锚定效应进一步强化网络权力的非对称结构。