审计公告与国家审计信息披露理论框架的研究——基于信号传递机制的研究视角

本文从信息论和信号传递机制出发，解读审计公告所传递的信号，揭示了审计公告之所以引起“审计风暴”是因为审计公告传递了审计质量、审计独立性、民主法制进程和服务于公众、公众参与等信号。建议从三个层次构建一个国家审计信息披露理论框架，以指导具体的国家审计信息披露的应用。     

珠三角物流产业转型升级下高职报关与国际货运专业人才需求调查分析

首先分析了珠三角物流产业转型升级对高职报关与国际货运专业人才培养的新需求。然后通过企业实证调查,分析了珠三角物流产业转型升级下人才需求的总体状况、核心业务领域和主要工作岗位,以及职业核心能力、专业课程设置和专业技能证书等方面的要求,最后得出调查结果对高职报关与国际货运专业改革的启示与建议。     

Confidence and the transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty in U.S. recessions

This article studies the role of confidence in the transmission of uncertainty shocks during U.S. recessions. I use smooth-transition vector-autoregression (ST-VAR) to examine the regime-dependent effect of uncertainty shocks, and a counterfactual decomposition to isolate the role of confidence when the economy is in different regimes, recessions and non-recessions. I find that shutting down the confidence channel leads to greatly dampened and less persistent effects of uncertainty shocks, especially during recessions. I also find that the cross-regime difference in the role of confidence can largely explain the cross-regime short-run difference in the effects of uncertainty shocks.     

Expected Precision of Estimation and Probability of Ruling Out a Hypothesis Based on a Confidence Interval

Interval estimation is an important objective of most experimental and observational studies. Knowing at the design stage of the study how wide the confidence interval (CI) is expected to be and where its limits are expected to fall can be very informative. Asymptotic distribution of the confidence limits can also be used to answer complex questions of power analysis by computing power as probability that a CI will exclude a given parameter value. The CI‐based approach to power and methods of calculating the expected size and location of asymptotic CIs as a measure of expected precision of estimation are reviewed in the present paper. The theory is illustrated with commonly used estimators, including unadjusted risk differences, odds ratios and rate ratios, as well as more complex estimators based on multivariable linear, logistic and Cox regression models. It is noted that in applications with the non‐linear models, some care must be exercised when selecting the appropriate variance expression. In particular, the well‐known ‘short‐cut’ variance formula for the Cox model can be very inaccurate under unequal allocation of subjects to comparison groups. A more accurate expression is derived analytically and validated in simulations. Applications with ‘exact’ CIs are also considered.     

Forecasting the oil futures price volatility: A new approach

This study provides a new perspective of modelling and forecasting realized range-based volatility (RRV) for crude oil futures. We are the first to improve the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Range-based Volatility (HAR-RRV) model by considering the significant jump components, signed returns and volatility of realized range-based volatility. The empirical results show that the volatility of volatility significantly exists in the oil futures market. Moreover, our new proposed models with significant jump components, signed returns and volatility of volatility can gain higher forecast accuracy than HAR-RRV-type models. The results are robust to different forecasting windows and forecasting horizons. Our new findings are strategically important for investors making better decisions.     

风电场风速预测的不确定性研究

风速预测的超前性导致其预测结果是不确定的,传统的确定性风速预测只提供确切的数值,不能满足电网规划的要求。分析了风速预测结果不确定性影响因素,并在确定性预测结果的基础上,从条件概率和预测误差分布统计规律两个角度对预测概率和置信区间进行分析和计算。仿真试验表明该方法能够为决策者提供概率预测信息,具有一定的实用性和有效性。     

靶场测控装备状态及故障预测方法

靶场测控装备的管控与状态预测对于确保靶场试验任务的顺利开展有着重要的意义,也是状态/故障处理研究领域的发展方向。结合装备结构关系网络,通过对状态信号的分析,给出了靶场测控设备单元的状态预测方法。依据电子元器件寿命规律,结合状态异常出现的分布函数,重点构建了离散型状态变量的预测模型,提出了相应的预测流程和方法。仿真计算表明,提出的状态及故障预测模型和方法有效,可为提高任务期间装备的可靠性提供判断依据。     

中国特色社会主义制度自信析论

制度自信是对中国特色社会主义制度的充分肯定和坚定信念。中国特色社会主义制度自信不是凭空产生的,而是缘自特色优势、成功实践及对世界作出的独特贡献。坚定制度自信,必须坚持、完善和创新中国特色社会主义制度,不断扩大制度认同,凝聚制度共识,增强制度自觉。     

马田系统在企业可持续发展评价中的应用

简要介绍了企业可持续发展和企业可持续发展评价的基本内涵。在借鉴前人所建评价指标体系的基础上,讨论了运用马田系统进行有效特征选取的具体步骤,并在此基础上给出了评价的阈值准则和置信度准则。     

A mean-variance approach to forecasting with the consumer confidence index

This article refines the way consumer confidence survey data are used in forecasting models. The refinement is easy to describe: it extends existing models by controlling for statistically significant changes in consumer confidence index values. The motivation behind this refinement is simply that not all changes in the confidence index are statistically significant, and mean index values alone provide a noisy signal. Using Michigan Index of Consumer Confidence from 1967 through 2013, we show that controlling for significant versus insignificant changes in the consumer confidence index materially enhances the explanatory power of household expenditure forecasting models.