The Moral Hazard Play: A Review of The Chastening: Inside the Crisis that Rocked the Global Financial System and Humbled the IMF

We estimate the influence of trade preferences granted by Argentina on the origin of its imports. We try to identify if changes in Argentina's trade policy toward a set of countries had a differential effect, depending on whether goods were already traded, or on the contrary, if tariff changes affected mostly imports of new goods. We distinguish between the effects of changing tariffs and changing trade preferences. The econometric evidence shows that the effect of changes in tariff preferences on the probability of Argentina importing from other Asociación Latinoamericana de Integración (ALADI) members has been rather small, with most of the effect being explained by changes in tariff rates levied on imports from these countries. This result is stronger in the case of imports from Brazil.     

Learning with perfect information

For extensive form games with perfect information, consider a learning process in which, at any iteration, each player unilaterally deviates to a best response to his current conjectures of others' strategies; and then updates his conjectures in accordance with the induced play of the game. We show that, for generic payoffs, the outcome of the game becomes stationary, and is consistent with Nash equilibrium. In general, if payoffs have ties or if players observe more of each others' strategies than is revealed by plays of the game, the same result holds provided a rationality constraint is imposed on unilateral deviations: no player changes his moves in subgames that he deems unreachable, unless he stands to improve his payoff there. Moreover, with this constraint, the sequence of strategies and conjectures also becomes stationary, and yields a self-confirming equilibrium.     

山东省城镇居民文化消费分析

文化的发展对提高民族素质、促进经济发展起着重要作用。山东省城镇居民的文化消费情况,是要利用两类计量经济学模型来分析居民的文化消费意愿以及影响因素。研究结果表明,山东省城镇居民对文化生活十分重视,而居民收入对文化消费的影响是巨大的。     

Ramsey pricing in a hierarchical structure with an application to network-access pricing

This paper studies a hierarchical structure where an upstream regulated industry sells an intermediate good to a downstream regulated industry. Some sufficient conditions for all Ramsey prices to exceed marginal costs are derived. This hierarchical structure is shown to decrease the profit margin of the intermediate good but preserve its sign. Further, the hierarchical structure also decreases the profit margin of the final good sold by the downstream regulated industry. This is because this final good is a hierarchical complement to the intermediate good sold by the upstream regulated industry. The impacts upon other publicly produced goods, however, could be said to be neutral. Therefore, the hierarchical structure has asymmetric impacts upon publicly produced goods. Accordingly, the equiproportional output-reduction statement of Ramsey rule does not survive. This paper ends with providing an application to the network-access pricing problem.     

基于利润率的产业结构趋同问题研究

改革开放以来,我国经济迅速发展。但在经济快速发展的同时,一些地区间的产业分布比较相似,因而产业结构趋同问题越来越成为人们关注的一个热点。本研究从区位基尼系数与利润率之间关系的角度来分析产业结构趋同问题。分析表明,在1987-2000年间所选行业里,绝大多数行业的利润率与区位基尼系数呈负相关关系;最后得出,我国此阶段的行业分布变化总体上是符合利润率规律的。     

粗放型经济增长模式对中国的环境及环境政策的影响

文章简要阐述了中国环境政策的发展及其局限性,探讨了中国以往粗放型经济发展模式对环境的损害,以及这种经济发展模式对环境政策形成的制约机制。文章认为,从长远来看,进行经济结构调整,转变经济发展模式,并以此为基础进行环境政策改革,是改善中国的经济与环境关系的基本途径。     

从可持续增长到可持续价值创造

许多企业将销售收入的持续增长视为其首当其冲的第一要务,但是可持续增长并不必然促成可持续价值创造,即使是快速的“可持续增长”也是如此。因此,企业不应该首先确定销售增长目标,相反,销售增长应该是追求股东价值最大化目标的结果。企业要实现股东价值最大化,除了要保证销售收入的增长外,还必须使得企业的经营利润率高于保值经营利润率,并努力使这一状态持续更为长久的时间。     

Margins and Price Limits in Taiwan's Stock Index Futures Market

This study extends the framework of Brennan (1986) to find the cost-minimizing combination of spot limits, futures limits, and margins for stock and index futures in the Taiwan market. Our empirical results show that the cost-minimization combination of margins, spot price limits, and futures price limits is 7 percent, 6 percent, and 6 percent, respectively, when the index level is less than 7,000. When the index level ranges from 7,000 to 9,000, the efficient futures contract calls for a combination of 6.5 percent, 5 percent, and 6 percent. The optimal margin, reneging probability, and corresponding contract cost are less than those without price limits. Price limits may partially substitute for margin requirements in ensuring contract performance, with a default risk lower than the 0.3 percent rate that is accepted by the Taiwan Futures Exchange. On the other hand, though imposing equal price limits of 7 percent on both the spot and futures markets does not coincide with the efficient contract design, it does have a lower contract cost and margin requirement (7.75 percent) than that without imposing price limits (8.25 percent).     

试论融资融券业务对我国证券市场的影响

融资融券业务是建立在市场对未来投资预期基础上衍生出来的一种金融工具。2008年10月5日,中国证监会发布了《中国证监会近期正式启动证券公司融资融券业务试点工作》的通知,这既给我国证券市场带来机遇,也使其面临更加严峻的挑战,从远期看将会对促进我国资本市场稳定发展与改革创新具有积极意义。本文首先对融资融券进行理论概述,进而从市场主体和证券市场两个视角分析融资融券的影响效应,并进一步提出了完善我国融资融券制度的政策建议。     

融入产品内国际分工体系如何影响企业出口的二元边际——基于两步系统动态GMM估计方法的研究

本文利用WIOD的宏观投入产出数据和大样本微观企业合并数据, 采用两步系统动态GMM估计方法分析融入产品内国际分工体系对我国企业出口二元边际的影响.研究结果发现, 融入全球产品内分工体系显著促进企业集约边际的增长, 但没有促进扩展边际的增长; 融入全球产品内分工体系促进加工贸易企业及港澳台、 外资企业集约边际的扩张, 抑制国有和集体企业扩展边际的增长.