A Micromodel of New Product Adoption with Heterogeneous and Forward-Looking Consumers: Application to the Digital Camera Category

We develop an empirical model for the adoption process of a new durable product that accounts for consumer heterogeneity as well as consumers forward-looking behavior. Accounting for heterogeneity is important for two reasons. As the mix of consumers with different preferences and price sensitivities could change over time, firms need to update their marketing strategies. Further, it allows for a variety of shapes for the aggregate adoption process over time. As prices for durable and technology products fall over time with firms continually introducing enhanced products, consumers may anticipate these prices and improvements and delay their purchases in the product category. Forward-looking consumers optimize purchase timing by trading off their utilities from buying the product and their expectations on future prices, quality levels, and brand availability. Such forward-looking behavior will result in price dynamics in the marketplace as price changes today influence future purchases. And it results in different shapes of the new product sales pattern over time by influencing the time to take-off. We show how the parameters of our model can be estimated using aggregate data on the sales, prices, and attributes of brands in a product category. We apply our model to market data from the digital camera category. Our data are consistent with the presence of both heterogeneity and forward looking behavior among consumers. At the product category level, we are able to decompose the effects of the entry of Sony into primary demand expansion and switching from other brands. At the brand level, we find that there exist several segments in the market with different preferences for the brands and different price sensitivities leading to differences in adoption timing and brand choice across segments. For a given brand, we show how the changing customer mix over time has implications for that brands pricing strategies. We characterize how price effects vary across brands and over time and how price changes in a given time period influence sales in subsequent periods. Model comparison and validation results are also provided.     

Product innovation for the people's car in an emerging economy

As product offerings of multinational enterprises (MNEs) continue to primarily serve the relatively well-to-do consumers in emerging economies, innovations to meet the unique affordability and acceptability criteria of masses at the base of the pyramid (BoP) continues to remain a daunting challenge. The academic literature is sparse on comprehensive in-depth studies about the intricate processes involved in shaping and managing technology development for the masses. Focusing on product innovation by Tata Motors of India with the Nano—the world's cheapest car, our case study aims to understand how the innovator's choices regarding the use of technology, product design and organizational practices for new product development enabled it to meet the challenge of innovation for India's masses. Drawing on Christensen's work on disruptive innovations, our analysis shows how frugal use of resources through a new combination of existing component technologies created a new modular product to achieve the unique price–performance requirements demanded by the BoP. Our findings show that collaboration with suppliers for component design and their early integration in the design phase substantially lowered costs and helped eliminate unnecessary frills whilst incorporating features valued by mass markets. Our study has important managerial implications for MNEs and provides critical insights into the processes for a new blueprint for an untapped market segment in the automobile industry.     

Impatience implication of weakly Paretian orders: Existence and genericity

We study order theoretic and topological implications for impatience of weakly Paretian, representable orders on infinite utility streams. As a departure from the traditional literature, we do not make any continuity assumptions in proving the existence of impatient points. Impatience is robust in the sense that there are uncountably many impatient points. A general statement about genericity of impatience cannot be made for representable, weakly Paretian orders. This is shown by means of an example. If we assume a stronger sensitivity condition, then genericity obtains.     

On equitable social welfare functions satisfying the Weak Pareto Axiom: A complete characterization

The present paper examines the problem of aggregating infinite utility streams with a social welfare function that respects the Anonymity and Weak Pareto Axioms. The paper provides a complete characterization of domains (of the one period utilities) on which such an aggregation is possible. A social welfare function satisfying the Anonymity and Weak Pareto Axioms exists on precisely those domains that do not contain any set of the order type of the set of positive and negative integers. The criterion is applied to decide on possibility and impossibility results for a variety of domains. It is also used to provide an alternative formulation of the characterization result in terms of the accumulation points of the domain.     

Awareness Advertising and International Market Segmentation

In recent years, multinational corporations have increasingly employed advertising in markets where their products are not available. Such ‘awareness advertising’ is only in small part for products that are likely to be introduced in those markets in the near future. A significant and larger part of awareness advertising is for products that are unlikely to be sold in the particular market because of government restrictions on commercial importation and sale. In this paper, we will analyse the motivation behind the use of awareness advertising, the benefits that multinational firms may receive from such advertising and its implications for international market segmentation. The paper concludes with a discussion of areas for fruitful future research on awareness advertising.     

Structural models of complementary choices

This article reviews the rapidly growing literature on structural models of complementary choices. It discusses recent modeling developments and identifies promising areas for future research.     

Empirical Analysis of Indirect Network Effects in the Market for Personal Digital Assistants

We present a framework to measure empirically the size of indirect network effects in high-technology markets with competing incompatible technology standards. These indirect network effects arise due to inter-dependence in demand for hardware and compatible software. By modeling the joint determination of hardware sales and software availability in the market, we are able to describe the nature of demand inter-dependence and to measure the size of the indirect network effects. We apply the model to price and sales data from the industry for personal digital assistants (PDAs) along with the availability of software titles compatible with each PDA hardware standard. Our empirical results indicate significant indirect network effects. By July 2002, the network effect explains roughly 22% of the log-odds ratio of the sales of all Palm O/S compatible PDA-s to Microsoft O/S compatible PDA-s, where the remaining 78% reflects price and model features. We also use our model estimates to study the growth of the installed bases of Palm and Microsoft PDA hardware, with and without the availability of compatible third party software. We find that lack of third party software negatively impacts the evolution of the installed hardware bases of both formats. These results suggest PDA hardware firms would benefit from investing resources in increasing the provision of software for their products. We then compare the benefits of investments in software with investments in the quality of hardware technology. This exercise helps disentangle the potential for incremental hardware sales due to hardware quality improvement from that of positive feedback due to market software provision.