Supporting ALARP decision making by cost benefit analysis and multiattribute utility theory

Current guidance in the UK and elsewhere indicate upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of individual risk per annum. ‘As low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. The suitability of cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) and multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) are assessed for performing ALARP (‘as low as reasonably possible’) assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using ‘disproportionality’, and the use of discounting to trade‐off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk‐informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a nonuniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). The problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions are discussed. It is argued that multiattribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. It is also argued that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which different parties might (or might not) come to the same conclusion even when weighting items differently.     

“低碳”条件下后发地区发展战略研究——以湖北省黄冈市为例

在“低碳”条件下，后发地区如何发展经济，造福一方百姓，是需要认真研究的现实问题。以湖北省黄冈市为例，提出四个转向：用“多元经济”取代单一工业发展模式；用“人口进城”取代单一GDP数字增长；用“项目招标”取代单一招商引资工作和用“就业创业”取代单一社会管理控制，用新的价值取向取代原有的社会运作模式。     

大学生低碳消费行为影响机制与引导策略研究——基于ANP模型

发展低碳经济已经在世界各国达成普遍共识,低碳消费成为发展低碳经济不可或缺的重要组成部分。大学生作为未来社会主义事业的建设者和接班人,其日常生活活动对于经济社会的发展起着重要作用,其低碳消费行为制约影响着中国低碳经济发展的进程。本文采用ANP分析法,探讨影响其低碳消费的各项因素及机制,最后提出引导大学生低碳消费的策略和建议。     

实施质量优先的工业化战略——兼论欠发达地区工业化路径选择

贵州是典型的欠发达地区,工业是推动国民经济发展的支柱产业,积极推进工业化,实施工业强省战略是贵州未来一定时期经济发展的重大战略.大跃进时期的工业化是重数量忽视质量的典型,这种工业发展战略导致了贵州工业和国民经济增长的剧烈波动.改革开放后贵州选择了低速度扩张的工业化道路、以初级产品为主的“过度重工业化”道路、利润率相对低的工业化道路.即贵州工业是在低起点、低水平上、忽视质量的扩张,具体地讲,走的是一条依托资源开采及粗加工为主的“过度”重工业化道路,沿着这条道路发展时,我们没有注重质量的提高,而是在低水平的数量扩张.未来贵州工业化路径在选择上,应调整我们的工业化战略,改低速度、低水平的数量扩张战略为质量优先战略.     

关于环保低碳节能与技术进步的研究——推节能促低碳经济

低碳经济是一种低能耗、低污染、低排放的经济模式,是人类社会的又一次巨大进步。它的本质是能源利用效率高而且清洁能源结构问题,他的核心是在能源技术方面创新、在制度方面创新和在人类生存发展观念的根本性转变。因为低碳技术能解决因CO2等温室气体过度排放而引起的气候变化生态失衡等大自然问题,也能处理能耗过高、能源短缺、环境污染等高碳经济模式下出现的社会问题。所以低碳技术能够在世界各国流行起来,发展低碳技术能够取得全人类的共识。     

基于低碳经济的低碳物流发展分析

随着世界经济的不断发展，工业文明给自然环境带来的破坏也随之而来。物流作为第三产业的重要组成部分，在收获巨大利润的同时，也给自然环境带来了相应的负担，所以倡导绿色低碳的物流发展模式是十分必要的。物流产业在创造利润的同时，应尽最大可能保持人与自然的和谐发展。     

浅水位软土地基常用的挡土围护结构

结合浅水位软土地基常用的挡土围护结构类型,介绍其在施工中的应用,总结比较其适用条件和优缺点。     

Meanings of leisure among young consumers of a Rio de Janeiro low-income community

This study investigated the meanings attached to leisure by low-income young consumers. In order to achieve this research objective, the study was conducted in a low-income community in the city of Rio de Janeiro. We used semi-structured interviews with community leaders and observation to acquire a preliminary knowledge of the field. We then interviewed 80 young people with ages varying from 15 to 25?years old. The data were treated qualitatively and quantitatively, using cluster analysis. The results showed, as expected, that these consumers have limited resources for leisure activities, due to lack of money, time or both. However, although the subjects recognise leisure as an important part of their lives, they attribute different meanings to it. Also, their understanding of free time and leisure varies somewhat. The findings provide evidence that these consumers' view of leisure, to some extent, resembles a pre-industrial understanding of leisure, associated with time for rest and time with family and friends. The results also permitted the identification of four different clusters, based on the meanings attributed to leisure and free time, individual aspirations and demographic characteristics.     

《资本论》中的低碳经济理论简述——从经济伦理的视角

从《资本论》的人道观看，低碳经济是人类应然且必然的选择，但是经济活动的碳放量并非越低越好，更不是无碳最好，而且低碳经济未必就是人道的经济。从《资本论》的自由观看，经济活动碳放量的高低变化反映了人类自由不断实现的过程，发展现代社会的低碳经济，科技发展是关键，量力而行是基本原则。从《资本论》的正义论看，资本主义制度下高碳经济的高速发展从根本上讲不是源于其制度的正义性而是源于其制度的不正义性。《资本论》对高碳经济的正义审视仍未过时，对建设我国低碳经济的制度保障也不乏现实的启示性。     

黑龙江省西部松嫩低平原盐碱地质灾害分布调查的思考

本文是在充分利用前人研究成果的基础上,运用多年积累的勘察资料和工作经验,投入1:250000区域地质调查、1:250000遥感地质解译、样品采集与化验分析等工作,运用遥感解译与地面调查相结合的方法科学合理的为黑龙江省西部松嫩低平原盐碱地质灾害分布及危害程度的进一步评价提供科学依据。