VIX futures term structure and the expectations hypothesis

Tests of the expectations hypothesis reveal that the slope of the VIX futures term structure predicts the direction but not the magnitude of the evolution of the short-end of the curve, but predicts neither the direction nor the magnitude of short-term changes in the long-end of the curve. Relative value seeking spread trades, constructed to exploit such violations, deliver excess returns with annualized Sharpe ratios equal or greater than those of volatility-writing strategies deployed by VIX ETN's for a majority of the 32 spread trade combinations tested. I demonstrate that profits from beta-neutral variations of the spread trades, which are not compensation for taking on equity downside risk by design, are propagated by inflows of capital into VIX futures markets, after controlling for factors that measure changes in the availability of hedge fund capital, risk appetite, and momentum. At the heart of profits, and by extension the term structure anomalies, is a disproportionally elevated basis propagated by long VIX demand that enters the futures market through ETN channels.     

Interaction between securitization gains and abnormal loan loss provisions: Credit risk retention and fair value accounting

This study investigates whether managers use asset securitization gains to substitute loan loss provision (LLP) management for earnings management, and, if so, whether the percentage of credit risk retained affects such a relationship. The literature provides evidence that managers have used securitization transactions to boost earnings. Using 2001?2014 data for a sample of bank holding companies, I find that managers use securitization gains and LLPs as partial substitutes and that earnings management from securitization gains grows at an increasing rate to substitute income increasing LLP management as the level of risk retention increases. These findings are consistent with the argument that the higher the level of risk retention, the greater the potential impact on achieving earnings targets, given banks’ exercise of discretion over securitization gains through estimation of fair value of retained interest. In addition, I document that the substitution effect between the two tools is non‐existent in the post‐SFAS 166/167 period. Taken together, the findings have timely implications for accounting standards by informing the effect of risk retention that I measure through earnings management techniques. Moreover, my findings provide additional support for improved disclosures on assets‐backed securities.     

证券公司风险监管制度有效性的实证研究

按照国际清算银行(BIS)颁布的新资本充足率规范,以49个中国证券公司实际自营投资组合为样本、采用基于VaR的内部模型法,估算各证券公司自营投资的市场风险和应计提资本,并以之检验中国证券公司新老资本监管制度的有效性.实证结果显示:改革后的2006版资本监管制度比老制度有所改善,但对风险的反映不如内部模型法准确,中国监管制度改革的方向应是采用内部模型法.因主要品种风险调整比例设置偏低,新制度平均低估证券公司自营风险29%,建议监管规则调整上海180指数股票、ST类股票、基金、企业债、可转债等品种的风险调整比例.     

交易所改制对自律监管的挑战与新思考

市场竞争的压力与交易所自身发展的需要,使得交易所公司制改造已成为交易所发展的国际趋势。面对交易所改制所引发的交易所商业利益和公共利益失衡、监管权力滥用、自我上市的利益冲突、滋生金融风险等一系列问题,证券监管机关应当立足本国国情,借鉴成功经验,做出相应制度安排,采取限制交易所所有权取得、转移交易所监管功能等措施,完善内部治理与强化外部监管并重,从而有效消除利益冲突,发挥公司制交易所的组织结构优势。     

Investment Horizon and Repo in the Over‐the‐Counter Market

This paper presents a three‐period model featuring a short‐term investor in the over‐the‐counter bond market. A short‐term investor stores cash because of a need to pay cash at some future date. If a short‐term investor buys bonds, then a deadline for retrieving cash lowers the resale price of bonds for the investor through bilateral bargaining in the bond market. Ex‐ante, this hold‐up problem explains the use of a repo by a short‐term investor, the existence of a haircut, and the vulnerability of a repo market to counterparty risk. This result holds without any uncertainty about bond returns or asymmetric information.     

农村土地使用权流动研究

本文站在各个角度, 对当前土地使用权流动所面临的困惑进行了深入的分析, 揭示了土地流动的主要障碍是土地使用权流动的内生机制和外部环境、条件均不成熟。在分析的基础上提出了解决当前土地流动障碍的对策, 并进一步提出了土地证券化和土地股份公司制经营是土地流动和土地经营形式的发展趋势。     

Earnings Management Surrounding New Debt Issues

We examine whether firms manage earnings before issuing bonds to achieve a lower cost of borrowing. We find significant income‐increasing earnings management prior to bond offerings. We also find that firms that manage earnings upward issue debt at a lower cost, after controlling for various bond issuer and issue characteristics. Our results are consistent with studies that report earnings management around equity issuance. The results indicate that, like equity holders, bondholders fail to see through the inflated earnings numbers in pricing new debt.     

The Efficacy of Regulation Fair Disclosure

This paper examines the impact of Securities and Exchange Commission's Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) on information leakage around voluntary management disclosures. We find a positive correlation between stock returns two days before and after the voluntary disclosure in the pre‐Regulation FD period, but not in the post‐Regulation FD period. After Regulation FD is implemented, pre‐announcement abnormal return as a percentage of total return decreases by 26.1% (21.4%) for large firms with good (bad) news, suggesting that the amount of information leakage reduces for these firms. These findings provide support for the premise and the intended purpose of the regulation for large firms.     

承销商分析师与非承销商分析师利益冲突比较研究

基于证券分析师首次发表的关于2006~2008年A股市场IPO股票的研究报告数据,运用非参数检验与多元回归分析方法,对我国证券分析师利益冲突行为进行实证分析。研究结果表明,承销商分析师与非承销商分析师均存在乐观倾向,而且承销商分析师的投资评级更为乐观;市场对于承销商分析师与非承销商分析师关注股票的反应并无显著差异,表明我国证券市场投资者并没有认识到分析师的利益冲突行为。     

证券期货业信息技术发展中需关注的几个问题

证券期货行业已成为高度IT依赖性的行业,信息技术发展及信息技术安全问题始终是行业的存在与发展基础。然而,由于市场的快速发展与技术的持续跟进总是存在着互动差距,一个在业务与技术之间良性循环的技术生态环境仍亟待从IT制度设计、IT治理环节和IT文化实践等多个方面予以重视和推动。本文从行业信息技术发展中遇到的几个问题着手,探讨了这些问题产生的根源和影响,也提出了解决问题的基本思路,其主要的着眼点仍然在于建立行业良性技术生态环境所需要的各种制度准备和技术准备,并希望这些问题的提出与探讨能引起全行业的关注与讨论,以尽快找到最佳的解决路径。