全球化、资产价格变动与中国货币政策反应——基于泰勒规则的扩展研究

在经济全球化、虚拟化的背景下对泰勒规则进行了扩展研究,分析了利率与汇率、利率与资产价格的相关影响机制;并采用静态模型和基于预期的动态模型对名义利率与通货膨胀水平、产出缺口、汇率、股票价格缺口以及房地产价格缺口之间的关系进行了检验。结果显示,考虑预期因素的动态模型能够达到稳定通货膨胀的作用,短期名义利率对于汇率和资产价格起到了符合经济意义的稳定作用。     

中国货币供应量与股票市场价格关系的实证分析

股票市场作为货币政策传导的渠道,一方面通过货币供应量影响股票市场价格,另一方面股票市场价格的变动反馈到投资、消费等领域,从而影响宏观经济以实现货币政策的目标。本文对我国货币供应量与股票市场价格关系进行了实证检验,分析检验结果后认为我国各层次的货币供应量与股票市场价格存在长期的协整关系,其中股票市场价格处于因方地位,货币供应量处于果方地位。本文的实证结论在一定程度上反映了目前我国股票市场的货币政策传导效率不高,还没有发挥其应有的作用,这与我国股票市场自身缺陷有很大关系。     

Was there policy “reform”? Evolution of EU domestic support for processed fruits and vegetables

Policy “reform” in agricultural markets is often associated with less government regulation and expenditures, or a shift towards more efficient interventions. The European Union (EU) adopted major policy changes for processed fruits and vegetables in 2001 and again in 2008, and we employ a simulation model to examine the effects of the three policy regimes in place before and after each of the changes. Our analysis incorporates the heterogeneity of processing firms in the EU and considers how they responded to the different policy regimes. Simulation results indicate that the EU subsidies increased EU tomato production by 3.8% for the regime that began in 2008 and 9.1% for the regime that began in 2001 compared to no subsidies. The policy regime that was in place from 2001 through 2007 led to the greatest distortions in global processing tomato markets, in part because it directed more of the benefits to EU growers and less to EU processors and consumers. Thus changes in 2001 “reformed” policy by redistributing gains within the EU, while changes in 2008 “reformed” policy by reducing distortions in global markets.     

A marginal analysis guided technology evaluation and selection

Making decisions on strategic investments, such as early stage manufacturing technology (MT), is a complicated task. Early stage technologies are usually costly, and surrounded by uncertainty. The potential benefits are often hard to quantify prior to implementation. Thus, how could managers make good decisions in a high-risk, technically complex business when the information they need to make those decisions comes largely from the project champions who are competing against one another for resources? Traditionally, in this problem domain, decisions are made based upon gut-feeling and past experience, sometimes with the support of some multi-criteria decision-support tools. The criteria evaluation process is very subjective and relies heavily on managers’ experience, knowledge, as well as intuition. Thus, the evaluation approach is often not effectively carried out as there is lack of visibility and traceability in the decision making process. The impact of this scenario is that managers are not confident that resources are being optimised and applied to a mixed portfolio of projects to maximise benefits. This paper proposes a marginal analysis directed branch and bound approach for evaluating and selecting early stage manufacturing technology (MT) projects. A case study is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. Implications of the proposed approach to practitioners and academia are discussed and future research outlined.     

基于挤出效应的住房保障规模对商品住房价格的影响

中国房地产市场中保障性住房的角色和作用愈加重要,保障性住房建设规模正在逐年扩大.商品住房价格变化是供给需求作用的结果,但是随着保障房供给规模的增加,商品住房价格的涨幅也会发生改变,说明保障房的供给规模会对普通商品房的供需产生影响.本文以北京市商品住房市场为例,选取住宅需求、住宅供给、住房投机对价格的影响为自变量,住宅价格为因变量,利用多元回归模型对商品住房价格变化进行实证研究,同时通过考虑保障房供给对住房市场产生的不同挤出效应,分析保障房供给规模供需变化对房价产生的影响,进而为政府制定相关的住房保障政策提供建议和对策.     

中国增长奇迹中的制度与政策作用分析

世界各国贫富差距显著,对于造成国富国穷的原因增长经济研究提出了＂政策说＂和＂制度说＂两种假说。前者认为制度调整并非经济增长的前提,穷国可以通过政策改革刺激资本投资和技术进步实现增长,而后者认为二战后发展实践表明只有进行制度变革才能获得持续和高质量的经济增长,一国的制度质量高低对长期增长绩效有决定性影响。文章分析了中国增长奇迹中的制度和政策作用,认为中国宏观政策至关重要,而在产权保护、市场制度等方面的改进也是长期保持高增长必不可少的,中国案例对两种假说都不构成反例。     

云南电网应急恢复在线决策支持系统研究

针对云南电网黑启动方案只是在考虑有限的典型工况下离线制订的预案,在实际事故的演化过程中,特别是在极端外部环境下或在停电恢复过程中很难保证这些方案的时效性和可操作性的问题,对云南电网从初期黑启动方案制订过程的决策支持、后续恢复总体目标的确定、后续恢复步骤的优化和恢复过程等方面进行了电网应急恢复在线决策支持系统研究。结果表明：云南电网应急恢复在线决策支持系统的实施提高了初期黑启动方案制订过程的自动化水平,进一步深化了全过程方案的校核制订过程。通过后续恢复过程的在线支持,为应急恢复过程的决策科学化、调度精细化奠定了基础。该项目的研究实施可提高系统大停电后的恢复速度。     

国际能源价格波动对中国股市的影响——基于计量模型的实证检验

本文从中国整体股市—沪深分市场股指—分行业股指三个层次,利用GARCH(1,1)-M模型研究了国际能源价格波动对中国股票市场的影响。研究结果表明,国际能源价格波动对中国股市的整体影响不显著,但对沪、深分市场股指的影响是显著的,并且对沪市收益率的影响大于对深市收益率的影响。分行业来看,国际能源价格波动对化工制品、石油和天然气、基础资源、建筑和材料、食品和饮料、汽车和零件、个人和家庭用品等7行业股指收益率的影响是显著的,其他行业的股票收益率对国际能源价格波动则没有显著响应。     

基于回归分析确定中间产品价格

中间产品如何合理定价是项目经济效益评价的一个难点。文章以干气法生产苯乙烯为例,探讨通过多元线性回归模型,由原料苯和产品苯乙烯价格推导中间产品乙苯价格的方法。     

浙江省推行居民阶梯电价情况及出现的问题与对策

居民阶梯电价是一项运用价格杠杆作用有效引导居民合理用电、节约用电的电价制度。浙江省是全国最早推行居民阶梯电价政策的省份之一,根据浙江省推行居民阶梯电价情况,针对推行居民阶梯电价过程中面临的电价水平、户表改造、供电服务等方面的难点问题,从合理确定居民电价水平、阶梯基础电量等角度提出了解决问题的对策。