城市生态学视野下的动态适度人口规模——兼论上海人口发展的基本态势

提出城市适度人口规模不是一个静态的数值,而是动态的过程。不是一个先验的数值,而是系统决定的综合结果。建立了一个适度人口规模的概念性框架,即EFL模型,就是说合理和适度的人口规模是与之相联系的资源环境因素、功能和经济方式、空间区位状态共同决定的结果。生态系统的变动,综合决定了一定时期、一定标准下的城市人口适度规模,并决定了这一适度规模的变化趋势。基于这一思路,讨论了影响上海人口规模变动的积极因素和阻碍因素,从资源环境变化、城市功能变化和城市空间变化三个方面对上海适度人口规模的变动趋势作了基本判断,提出上海人口规模将出现先上升再下降的趋势。根据动态适度人口规模的观点,对城市人口综合调控和城市管理的有关问题提出了一些建议。     

产业结构软化及其对世界经济发展的影响

产业结构的状态总是随着经济发展的变化而处于不断变动之中。20世纪中期以来，以信息技术革命为核心的新技术革命的兴起加速了世界产业结构的全方位变革，出现了产业结构软化的趋势。产业结构软化趋势主要表现为产业结构服务化、高技术化、融合化和国际化，它是世界经济发展的必然结果，同时又对世界经济发展产生了重要的影响。     

国有土地使用权招拍挂出让制度的绩效分析

从制度变迁角度讨论了制度与经济绩效的关系,认为国有土地使用权招拍挂出让制度的建立是一种强制性的制度变迁,并从制度兼容性角度对该项制度的绩效进行了分析,最后在制度完善方面提出了相应的建议。     

外商直接投资对国有企业制度创新的促进作用

回顾我国20年的经济转型,可以发现经济体制改革与对外开放是一起进行的,对外开放引进了一个重要的制度创新主体——外商直接投资,外资的进入引入了对传统经济体制产生冲击的新制度因素。本文利用新制度经济学的原理,从制度选择集合、市场环境、制度变迁时滞三个方面分析外商直接投资对国企制度创新的促进作用。     

我国上市公司再融资与财务业绩动态变化研究

本文对上市公司再融资的3种形式及对财务业绩在时间上的变化进行了分析，提出了无论配股、增发新股、发行可转换债3种方式对财务指标的影响是下滑的，而对企业的核心业务是增强的，但不显著。发行可转债优于配股和增发。     

Drama theory and its relation to game theory. Part 2: Formal model of the resolution process

In a drama, characters' preferences and options change under the pressure of pre-play negotiations. Thus they undergo change and development. A formal model of dramatic transformation is presented that shows how the core of a drama is transformed by the interaction among the characters into a strict, strong equilibrium to which they all aspire. The process is seen to be driven by actors' reactions to various paradoxes of rationality.     

Drama theory and its relation to game theory. Part 1: Dramatic resolution vs. Rational solution

Drama theory differs from game theory in that it does not regard actors' preferences and perceived opportunities as fixed, but as capable of being changed by the actors themselves under the pressure of pre-play negotiations. Thus characters in a drama undergo change and development. A manyperson, multiphase theory of dramatic transformation is presented, showing how thecore of a drama (in the sense of game theory) is transformed by the interaction between the characters into a strict, strong equilibrium to which they all aspire. The process of dramatic transformation is shown to be driven by actors' reactions to various paradoxes of rationality; it is proved that when all these paradoxes have been overcome, a full dramatic resolution has been reached, satisfying actors' emotional and moral demands, as well as the demands of rationality.     

Regulatory ‘Balancing’ and the Efficiency of Green R&D

We identify and analyse several dynamic implications of setting environmental standards such as to balance marginal costs and benefits. The adoption of such a regulatory approach is shown to effect (i) the speed of improvement of abatement technologies; (ii) the direction (in a sense to be defined) of that improvement; (iii) its source and the distribution of the rents from it; and (iv) the rate of development of defensive (averting) technologies. Existing views are thoroughly synthesised in the context of a simple diagrammatic model, several new results are derived and at least one conventional wisdom questioned. The message of the analysis for legislators and regulators is that cost–benefit balancing should be done with care.     

Experimental Economics and the Theory of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Following a brief review of the main experimental work into the economics of risk and uncertainty, both static and dynamic, this paper reports the results of an experiment testing one of the key assumptions of the theory of dynamic economic behaviour—that people have a plan and implement it. Using a unique design which enables the plan (if one exists) to be revealed by the first move, the experiment was implemented via the Internet on a subset of the University of Tilburg's ongoing family expenditure survey panel. The advantages of using such a set of subjects for the experiment are twofold: the demographic characteristics of the set are known and therefore demographic inferences can be made; the representativeness of the set is known and therefore inferences about populations can be made. The results suggest that at least 36% of the subjects had behaviour inconsistent with the hypothesis under test: that people formulate plans and then implement them. Interestingly demographic variables are unable to explain the consistency or inconsistency of individuals. One conclusion is that subjects simply make errors. An alternative conclusion, consistent with previous experimental research, is that people are unable to predict their own future decisions. The implications for dynamic theory (particularly relating to savings and pensions decisions) are important.     

A DEA Approach to Understanding the Productivity Growth of Malaysia's Manufacturing Industries

This paper seeks to explain the productivity growth performance of Malaysia's manufacturing sector using a panel data of 28 industries from 1981–1996. Here, the data envelopment analysis technique is used to calculate and decompose the Malmquist index of total factor productivity (TFP) growth into technical change, change in technical efficiency and change in scale efficiency. This allows the identification of the sources of productivity growth which is crucial for policy formulation. It was found that the annual TFP growth of the Malaysian manufacturing sector was low at 0.8% and this was driven by small gains in both technical change and technical efficiency, with industries operating close to optimum scale.