Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

基于动态冲击试验的通勤类飞机座椅符合性验证技术

国产某型民用通勤类飞机为了取得欧洲航空安全局(EASA)型号合格证,机上座椅需进行设计更改并补充进行应急着陆情况下的动态要求符合性验证.通过对适航条款及相应标准的解读,研究了基于动态试验的航空座椅动态要求适航验证技术,其主要包括座椅动态性能基本要求、试验构型及工况筛选、试验规划、合格判据和试验结果分析等内容.结果表明,该型机旅客座椅满足适航规章对座椅的动态性能要求.该项旅客座椅动态性能试验的成功为型号取得EASA型号合格证奠定了良好的基础,该型飞机也即将成为第一个取得欧洲型号合格证的国产飞机.     

Macroeconomic consequences of state fragility in sub‐Saharan Africa

Are poor macroeconomic outcomes primarily the result of economic policies, or of deeper underlying state fragility problems in sub‐Saharan Africa? We attempt to answer this question by using carefully specified dynamic panel regression techniques to show how state fragility conditions help to explain the differences in the macroeconomic performance of sub‐Saharan African economies, and to identify the most plausible mechanisms of transmission. We find that countries with greater fragility suffer higher macroeconomic volatility and crisis; they also experience weaker growth. When we disaggregate state fragility into its various components, we find that it is the security and social components that have the strongest causal impact on macroeconomic outcomes, while the political component is, at best, weak. Therefore, we conclude that it is state fragility conditions, and not necessarily macroeconomic policies, that are of first‐order importance in explaining the differences in macroeconomic performance for African countries. The knock‐on effects are mostly mediated through the fiscal channel, the aid channel, and the finance channel. Accordingly, we recommend that interventions in fragile states should best focus on exploiting the potential for using fiscal policy, aid, and finance as instruments to improve macroeconomic outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Semistatic hedging and pricing American floating strike lookback options

We price an American floating strike lookback option under the Black–Scholes model with a hypothetic static hedging portfolio (HSHP) composed of nontradable European options. Our approach is more efficient than the tree methods because recalculating the option prices is much quicker. Applying put–call duality to an HSHP yields a tradable semistatic hedging portfolio (SSHP). Numerical results indicate that an SSHP has better hedging performance than a delta-hedged portfolio. Finally, we investigate the model risk for SSHP under a stochastic volatility assumption and find that the model risk is related to the correlation between asset price and volatility.     

黑龙江旅游网络关注度时空演变特征研究

探究黑龙江旅游网络关注度时空演变特征对黑龙江旅游业良性发展具有重要意义.利用百度指数获取2011—2018年全国和分地区黑龙江旅游网络关注度逐日搜索指数数据.从时间分布、空间分布、时空集聚3个方面研究其演变特征.研究表明:2011—2018年全国黑龙江旅游网络关注度年际变化总体呈现上升趋势,月际变化呈"W"形;2011—2018年31个省区市黑龙江旅游网络关注度空间差异较大、季节性影响显著;东部地区黑龙江旅游网络关注度偏高,西部地区黑龙江旅游网络关注度的季节差异最明显;东部地区内的黑龙江旅游网络关注度差异性最小,西部地区内差异性最大;黑龙江旅游网络关注度具有正空间自相关,部分东部、中部地区表现为高高集聚,多数西部地区表现为低低集聚.     

Discussion on the Benefits Distributing Structure in Village Land Deal

According to everyone average welfare value of land resources; this paper constitutes the base line of glebe usufruct deal value by analyzing the factors, which are affecting glebe usufruct deal value. Having adopted share＇s quotient of ownership and contracting power, the paper erects assigning mechanism to the income of glebe deal. Because of the share dynarnicity being adopted which shows the flexible strong points, the shares of ownership and contracting power avoid many unnecessary otiose disputes on income of glebe deal, adding the stability to the glebe usufruct deal. It is beneficial to the freedom flow and validity manufacture factor installment and also to the nonagricultural changing course.     

Nonparametric Dynamic Production Analysis and the Theory of Cost

While the dynamic theory of production provides little insight towards identifying a specific functional form for the firm's technology, dynamic production analysis has been explored traditionally in a parametric framework. A nonparametric dynamic dual cost approach to production analysis is developed in this article. Recovering technological information from intertemporal cost minimizing behavior is possible without imposing a parametric functional form on the firm's technology. Nonparametric tests to analyze the structure of a dynamic technology are presented from a dynamic cost minimizing perspective. The empirical implementation of these tests is illustrated for a balanced panel data set of Pennsylvania dairy operators during the time period 1986–1992.