网络经济环境下产业结构演进探析

随着网络经济的不断发展，一种新的市场结构－－竞争性垄断市场结构在信息产业中出现了，这种市场结构大大地促进了信息产业的发展。信息产业的发展又对传统产业产生了直接和间接的影响，从而带动整个产业结构的演进。本文对网络经济环境下产业结构的演进进行了分析，并提出了促进我国产业结构优化升级的政策建议。     

Experimental Economics and the Theory of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Following a brief review of the main experimental work into the economics of risk and uncertainty, both static and dynamic, this paper reports the results of an experiment testing one of the key assumptions of the theory of dynamic economic behaviour—that people have a plan and implement it. Using a unique design which enables the plan (if one exists) to be revealed by the first move, the experiment was implemented via the Internet on a subset of the University of Tilburg's ongoing family expenditure survey panel. The advantages of using such a set of subjects for the experiment are twofold: the demographic characteristics of the set are known and therefore demographic inferences can be made; the representativeness of the set is known and therefore inferences about populations can be made. The results suggest that at least 36% of the subjects had behaviour inconsistent with the hypothesis under test: that people formulate plans and then implement them. Interestingly demographic variables are unable to explain the consistency or inconsistency of individuals. One conclusion is that subjects simply make errors. An alternative conclusion, consistent with previous experimental research, is that people are unable to predict their own future decisions. The implications for dynamic theory (particularly relating to savings and pensions decisions) are important.     

The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns

We investigate the determinants of direct office real estate returns by analyzing rents, capital appraisals, and total returns. A recently compiled global database of major cities in Asia, Europe, and the United States provides a unique opportunity to give a macro-view on the effects of economic growth and supply and demand factors on nominal real estate returns. The global database provides quarterly observations from 1986 to 1999. To address the smoothness problem of appraisal-based price data and regulated rents, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a dynamic panel-data model. The model allows us to combine the cross-sectional and time-series dimension in our quarterly data. We find that gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, vacancy rate, and the available stock all have an effect on real estate returns.     

建设工程信息集成管理系统研究

工程项目建设与管理过程中会产生大量的物化的材料——建设工程信息。静态信息资料组卷归档后将成为建设工程项目的档案资料，为工程检查验收及日后的改建、扩建、维修、管理等方面提供极其重要的依据，动态信息则为工程建设过程的管理与决策提供强力支持，而这一切都建立在对建设工程信息的有效管理基础上，从了解建设工程信息特点入手,分析客户的需求，构筑管理系统构架,开发了相应的功能模块，并付诸了实施。     

论企业社会资本的有机构成及功能

企业社会资本是企业内外个人及组织之间的社会信任网络。它是微观、中观、宏观三个层面信任网络相互联系、相互平衡所形成的有机整体。构成企业生产能力、创利能力及企业生存发展的社会根基。企业社会资本的重要价值，是揭示了全球化、信息经济背景下。根植于关系、商誉、品牌等无形资源的“体系优势”、“动态柔性”和“创利能力”超越传统工业时代的区位优势、静态资源和生产能力，成为企业持续创新和竞争优势的来源。     

Environment–strategy co‐evolution and co‐alignment: a staged model of Chinese SOEs under transition

Economic reform in China has attracted growing attention from around the world owing to its significance for theory and practice. What has been largely missing in the literature is the temporal dimension, i.e., the changes over time in key variables such as organizational environment, firm strategic adaptations, and the performance implications. In this study, we investigate environment and strategic adaptations 12 years after Tan and Litschert examined these issues in 1990. Following a staged model, the study found that (1) organizational environment and firm strategic adaptations have co‐evolved over time, (2) a new configuration has emerged and is related to improved performance, and (3) such a relationship is moderated by the stage during transition in which firms were founded. Specifically, firms founded since 1990 are more proactive and innovative than firms that had existed in the previous stage. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

In this article, we analyze export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001–2015; 101 countries) and using various estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform instrumental-variable and fixed-effects estimators. Based on our analysis we document that GDP per capita and the size of the economy exhibit significant and positive effects on export sophistication; weak institutional quality exhibits negative effect. We also show that export sophistication is path-dependent and stable even during a major economic crisis, which is especially important for emerging and developing economies.     

Modified efficient importance sampling for partially non‐Gaussian state space models

The construction of an importance density for partially non‐Gaussian state space models is crucial when simulation methods are used for likelihood evaluation, signal extraction, and forecasting. The method of efficient importance sampling is successful in this respect, but we show that it can be implemented in a computationally more efficient manner using standard Kalman filter and smoothing methods. Efficient importance sampling is generally applicable for a wide range of models, but it is typically a custom‐built procedure. For the class of partially non‐Gaussian state space models, we present a general method for efficient importance sampling. Our novel method makes the efficient importance sampling methodology more accessible because it does not require the computation of a (possibly) complicated density kernel that needs to be tracked for each time period. The new method is illustrated for a stochastic volatility model with a Student's t distribution.     

Analysing job creation effects of scaling up infrastructure spending in South Africa

In a first for South Africa, this article draws on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynamic economy-wide employment impacts of infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, the South African investment plan is modelled, given the infrastructure externality. Alternative fiscal scenarios to finance the policy are modelled in the article. In the long run, unemployment decreases for all types of workers under one of the scenarios. In the short run, only elementary occupation workers benefit from a decrease in unemployment; for the rest, unemployment rises.     

中国货币国际化的趋势预测与人民币的范式选择

货币国际化是一个动态的历史过程。通过对其历史进程的考察,可以清晰地对未来货币国际化进程加以预测。文章认为,中国的人民币国际化进程刚刚起步,但却面临与以往世界货币迥异的道路、环境和结构,迫切需要走出一条符合中国国情的货币国际化道路。