我国城镇养老金制度改革方案的对比研究——一种制度设计的可行性研究

作为我国社会保障制度改革的重要部分之一,城镇养老金制度改革的重要性日益凸显出来.城镇养老金制度的选择决定着我国社会经济在未来能否持续健康地发展.试图在比较基金积累制和现收现付制两种制度设计的同时,结合我国社会经济以及人口方面的特点,提出一种制度设计,并从技术、制度和经济三方面进行可行性分析.     

国际旅游对我国国际收支平衡的影响分析

近几年我国旅游服务贸易逆差大幅飙升,已对我国国际收支平衡造成重大影响。本文从分析旅游服务贸易在国际收支平衡表中的地位着手,揭示我国旅游服务贸易变化轨迹,探讨旅游服务贸易逆差扩大的原因,最后提出促进我国旅游服务贸易健康发展的对策。     

基于国际化视野的融资融券业务思考

文章通过对2008—2012年间券商经营收入的研究分析和券商主要业务的收入比较,以揭示目前融资融券业务在券商经营中的地位。并通过分析融资融券业务收入占券商经营总收入的比重变化趋势,结合日本、美国等成熟市场数据来预测未来融资融券业务的发展趋势和前景,并提出一些政策上的建议。     

《资本账户开放内涵及定义的探讨》

由于资本账户交易的复杂性,关于资本账户开放,国际上没有严格统一的权威定义,对相关概念进行辨析后可以发现,常见的资本账户开放定义有一定的欠缺。资本账户开放可定义为"持续地避免对资本跨货币区边境的交易进行各种直接和间接的限制"。     

External liabilities and crises

We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970–2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to GDP is a significant crisis predictor. This is primarily due to the net position in debt instruments—the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem, if anything, an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor; iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; and iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises sensu stricto.     

The Chinese experience: The impact of financial restatements on firm value and its implications on the investigatory practices of regulators

We examine the relationship between restatements of prior period financial results and firm value in China. This relationship is relevant to the millions of global investors who purchase Chinese equity securities because Chinese regulatory authorities must focus on the restatement events that, in their judgment, most warrant investigation. We recommend that they focus their attention on restatement announcements (and the firms that announce them) that possess the characteristics that most impact firm value.Prior studies of the American equity markets found evidence of a relationship between the nature of the restatement announcements and firm value, as well as evidence that core account adjustments and high-magnitude adjustments affect firm value more than noncore account adjustments and low-magnitude adjustments. However, based on a sample of Chinese listed firms that made corporate announcements that appeared in the Asian press between 2003 and 2011, we only find mixed evidence in the Chinese equity markets in support of the former relationship, and no evidence at all in support of the latter relationship.In other words, restatement announcements in China do not impact firm value to the same extent, and in the same manner, as restatement announcements in America. Chinese regulators must thus develop policies that are unique to the Chinese markets in order to effectively prioritize their oversight activities on firms that issue restatement announcements.What factors should be considered by Chinese regulators? We identify a collection of corporate governance variables, as well as a smaller collection of financial variables, that are significantly associated with decreases in firm value. We also develop a set of regression analyses that utilize these variables to explain a significant portion of the variability of firm value during the sample period. Interestingly, however, we find no evidence that the growth patterns of the firms are significantly associated with changes in firm value.Using this evidence, we recommend the development of a model of regulatory guidance that is customized for the unique characteristics of the Chinese equity markets. We believe that this model can help Chinese authorities focus their attention on specific restatement announcements that most impact firm value.     

Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits

We investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt‐to‐GDP ratio for a sample of 17 European countries from 1970 to 2010. This is implemented in an interacted panel VAR framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. We find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior. While the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real GDP is positive and significant at moderate debt‐to‐GDP ratios, this effect turns negative as the ratio increases. The total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of GDP is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt. Consequently, depending on the degree of public indebtedness, our results accommodate long‐run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period. From a policy perspective, these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed.     

Why Has China's Current Account Balance Converged after the Global Financial Crisis?

China's current account surplus declined significantly from its peak of nearly 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to less than 1 percent in 2018. The new pattern offered fresh evidence for our understanding of China's current account dynamics. In this paper, we used flow of funds data to gauge its underlying driving forces. Specifically, by employing index decomposition analysis, we decomposed the current account from the perspective of savings and investment into three sectors: the household, corporate, and government sectors. We found that the decline in China's current account ratio was first driven by cyclical factors, i.e. weak corporate saving growth induced by the economic slump in 2009 as well as the following massive corporate investment bolstered by the government stimulus plan. However, such cyclical factors quickly subsided, and the subsequent current account balance reduction was later supported by structural factors, i.e. household savings declined enduringly and the Chinese government switched to a more expansionary fiscal policy. There are three possible explanations for the structural movement: reduced precautionary saving due to higher social security coverage ratio, lower corporate profits as a result of economic slowdown, and a twin deficit due to the government's more relaxed fiscal stance. The new facts, however, were not consistent with other current account theories focusing on long‐term aspects of the saving–investment account puzzle, especially those relating to China's special demographic characteristics.     

资源环境约束、制度创新与海洋产业可持续发展——基于海洋经济管理体制和海洋生态补偿机制的分析

资源环境约束已经严重影响到了海洋产业的可持续发展,而制度创新是实现其可持续发展的重要对策.从委托代理理论的角度而言,要在海洋经济管理中对不同的代理人进行恰当的授权并从委托人的角度对代理人之间的利益关系进行协调,这实质上是海洋经济管理体制中的一个制度创新过程.海洋生态系统具有公共产品的性质,当其遭受破坏时需要通过建立海洋生态补偿机制对其进行“修复”,这是为实现海洋产业可持续发展所实施的另一项制度创新.     

软件企业应收账款管理的对策

我国软件企业应收账款的现状堪忧,对企业造成了巨大负担.软件企业产生应收账款的成因包括以赊销为普遍竞争手段、内控管理不到位、会计基础工作不规范、客户需求表达不准确等.软件企业应收账款的解决有待于客户信用管理的强化、业务培训力度的增强以及应收账款管理制度和内控管理制度的建立健全.