广西中期工业化纵深发展的战略思考

2011年,广西经济总量突破万亿,进入中期工业化阶段。接下来广西应该走怎样的工业化道路,是需要认真思考的问题。文章通过构建TCI指数,指出广西目前的重型化工业道路是一条不能实现经济可持续发展的道路。广西的工业发展需要走一条最优工业化道路,即按照广西的要素禀赋结构,选择最优工业技术水平,使企业具有自生能力,以最快的速度实现资本积累、技术进步和产业升级。     

Do constraints created by economic growth targets benefit sustainable development? Evidence from China

An economic growth target is a declaration by policy authorities of commitment to that target and the corresponding allocation of resources. The constraints created by economic growth target are an important economic management method in China, which has helped China's economy to achieve remarkable achievements. However, it has also brought about serious environmental problems, threatening China's sustainable development. Using the data about economic growth targets in the work reports of 30 Chinese provincial governments from 2006 to 2017, this paper constructs several spatial measurement methods, such as the spatial Durbin model, to examine the constraints created by economic growth target's impacts on air pollution. The main conclusions are as follows. First, a significant “U-shaped” relationship exists between the constraints created by economic growth targets and air pollution. Second, the spatial Durbin model analysis revealed that PM_2.5 across China's provinces display significant positive spatial spillover effects and spatial agglomeration characteristics. Third, the direct, indirect, and total effects of constraints created by economic growth targets on air pollution are all statistically significant and depict a “U shape.” Finally, the constraints created by economic growth targets have an apparent threshold effect on air pollution, and the inhibiting effects increase with human capital and industrial restructuring. However, with the increase in foreign direct investments, constraints created by economic growth targets may increase air pollution. The conclusions of this paper are of great significance for improving the management of local government economic growth targets and sustainable development.     

城市家庭住房不平等:户籍、禀赋还是城市特征？——基于广义有序模型与Oaxaca-Blinder分解

基于中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据，运用广义有序Logit模型实证分析户籍、家庭禀赋和城市特征三类因素对城市家庭住房不平等的影响；运用夏普利值分解、Oaxaca-Blinder分解区分"努力"和"环境"因素、户籍歧视和禀赋效应的贡献。研究发现：户籍可解释住房等级不平等的54.2%；"努力"因素对住房水平起正向作用；在户籍间住房等级不平等中户籍歧视效应占主导，在住房面积不平等中禀赋效应占主导，外地户口居民住房水平低源于"环境"因素趋弱，农业户口居民则源于"努力"和"环境"因素叠加趋弱；由于生活成本效应占主导，城市规模和流动人口占比越大，居民住房等级趋低，而城市土地供给增长有助于提升住房水平。     

Is working capital management value-enhancing through alleviating financial constraints? Evidence from Chinese non-listed firms

Financial factors have been found highly important in influencing firms’ real activities and in promoting aggregate growth. Yet, the linkage between finance and firm-level total factor productivity (TFP) has been overlooked in the literature. I fill this gap using 147,310 non-listed Chinese firms over the period 1999–2007 to estimate a TFP model augmented with working capital. I find that TFP is strongly and significantly associated with working capital for private and foreign firms, but not for SOEs. More specifically, an increase in working capital has a negative (positive) effect on TFP in firms with positive (negative) working capital. Furthermore, highly external financial constrained, highly internal financial constrained, under-developed institutional regions and small size private and foreign firms are more sensitive to working capital.     

全球海运铁矿石市场承压解析与行业影响

世界钢产量峰期出现在2000年以后,其高速增长动力主要来源于中国,而中国铁矿石原矿资源禀赋的劣势,愈发刺激了中国对国际海运铁矿石的需求,致使中国铁矿石需求的对外依存度较高,与此同时,作为铁矿石纯进口国的中国难以主导铁矿石定价权。2011年国际铁矿石市场正值高位运行,大部分铁矿石生产商在高价驱使下,选择大幅增加投资成本扩建产能,海运铁矿石市场供需基本面开始倒转。2015年以来,铁矿石中国到岸价大幅下跌,铁矿石生产巨头由于低廉的现金生产成本也只能勉强盈利或者维持在盈亏平衡线附近,高成本矿被实质性挤压出局。而美国量化宽松政策收紧乃至退出,导致金融流动性降低,进一步巩固了全球铁矿石市场"供强需弱"的格局。由于国内高成本铁矿项目的退出,中国铁矿石需求对外依存度将会进一步升高。     

A general endogenous grid method for multi-dimensional models with non-convexities and constraints

The endogenous grid method (EGM) significantly speeds up the solution of stochastic dynamic programming problems by simplifying or completely eliminating root-finding. We propose a general and parsimonious EGM extended to handle (1) multiple continuous states and choices, (2) multiple occasionally binding constraints, and (3) non-convexities such as discrete choices. Our method enjoys the speed gains of the original one-dimensional EGM, while avoiding expensive interpolation on multi-dimensional irregular endogenous grids. We explicitly define a broad class of models for which our solution method is applicable, and illustrate its speed and accuracy using a consumption–saving model with both liquid assets and illiquid pension assets and a discrete retirement choice.     

Corporate Cash Holding in Asia

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of corporate saving in the form of changes in cash holdings for 11 Asian economies using firm‐level data from the Oriana Database for the 2002–2011 period. We find some evidence that cash flow has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings (i.e. that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is positive) and that the positive impact of cash flow on the change in cash holdings is larger and more significant in the case of smaller and presumably more constrained firms than in the case of larger and presumably less constrained firms in both developed and developing economies. Both of these findings corroborate the importance of financial constraints in Asian firms. In addition, we find that the cash flow sensitivity of cash declined after the global financial crisis and that Tobin's q has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings, especially in the case of larger and presumably unconstrained firms.     

自然资源禀赋与经济增长：资源诅咒还是资源福音?--基于劳动力结构的一个理论与实证分析框架

文章构建了一个包含自然资源存量和劳动力结构因素的经济增长理论模型，探索劳动力结构是否是引起“资源诅咒”或“资源福音”的一个原因。理论研究发现，在不同限制条件下，自然资源开发部门劳动力数量的增加对经济增长的作用不同，而劳动者素质的提高对缓解“资源诅咒”效应而言始终是一个有利因素。实证研究进一步表明：从总体上讲，我国省域层面的“资源诅咒”现象是存在的，但在一定条件下并非没有逆转的可能，避免“资源诅咒”问题的发生，使丰裕的自然资源成为地区发展的“福音”，关键在于劳动者素质的提高，因为资源开发部门劳动力数量的增加所起的作用有限；分地区讲，“资源诅咒”效应在经济发展水平不同的地区存在差异，而劳动力结构的异质性主导着这种差异。