Combining time-series and econometric forecast of tourism activity

It has always been difficult to model the travel industry because tourism involves such a diverse set of activities. However, various regional decision makers have become increasingly interested in predicting the flows of visitors through their market. Accurate forecasts of the number of tourists' arrivals, their length of stay, and their expenditures improve planning and inventory control. Stochastic time-series models have compared favorably with econometric models at the aggregate level while some naive automatic forecasting tools have fared well in comparison when predicting industry-level behavior. Several approaches have been developed to improve forecast accuracy. This paper presents parsimonious methods of improving accuracy by combining various forecasting techniques. The Box-Jenkins stochastic time-series method is combined with a traditional econometric technique to forecast airline visitors to the State of Florida.     

传统旅游城市入境游客满意度评价及其期望-感知特征差异分析--以西安欧美游客为例

入境旅游是衡量一个国家或地区旅游实力和开放程度的重要指示器.本文选取西安欧美客源为研究对象,基于期望差异模型、花费-收获模型、服务绩效模型和标准模型对游客满意度做出测定和比较,并运用合图法(co-plot)分析西安欧美游客的期望和实际感知特点.结果发现:①期望差异和花费--收获模式与总体满意度显著相关,推荐率与游客满意度高度正相关,而重游意向与满意度联系不大.②根据游客期望和实际感知及两者差异值,西安旅游的相关指标分成八类,间接反映了西安旅游业发展特点.③西安欧美游客和国内游客对旅游六要素表现出不同的评价和满意度.最后提出了本文研究不足及今后研究中应弥补之处.     

Consumer Segments Based on Attitudes Toward Luxury: Empirical Evidence from Twenty Countries

This article proposes an international segmentation of consumers based on their attitudes toward luxury. We perform a two-stage empirical study with a data set that combines samples from 20 countries. We provide a substantive interpretation of the results to show that three attitude segments dominate in a Western cultural context. We discuss several directions for future research based on the findings.     

A process model of burnout among salespeople: Some new thoughts

The authors develop a process model of salesperson burnout based on the unique characteristics of the sales profession. They test the proposed model using data collected from 502 industrial salespeople, and then compare their model to the two most prominent extant models in the occupational literature. Results support the proposed model and indicate that it provides the best fit to the study data.     

Leverage and Volatility Feedback Effects in High-Frequency Data

We examine the relationship between volatility and past andfuture returns using high-frequency aggregate equity index data.Consistent with a prolonged "leverage" effect, we find the correlationsbetween absolute high-frequency returns and current and pasthigh-frequency returns to be significantly negative for severaldays, whereas the reverse cross-correlations are generally negligible.We also find that high-frequency data may be used in more accuratelyassessing volatility asymmetries over longer daily return horizons.Furthermore, our analysis of several popular continuous-timestochastic volatility models clearly points to the importanceof allowing for multiple latent volatility factors for satisfactorilydescribing the observed volatility asymmetries.     

Asymmetries in bid and ask responses to innovations in the trading process

This paper proposes a new approach to jointly model the trading process and the revisions of market quotes. This method accommodates asymmetries in the dynamics of ask and bid quotes after trade-related shocks. The empirical specification is a vector error correction (VEC) model for ask and bid quotes, with the spread as the co-integrating vector, and with an endogenous trading process. This model extends the vector autoregressive (VAR) model introduced by Hasbrouck (Hasbrouck J (1991) Measuring the information content of stock trades. J Finance 46:179–207). We provide evidence against several symmetry assumptions, very familiar among microstructure models. We report asymmetric adjustments of ask and bid prices to trade-related shocks, and asymmetric impacts of buyer and seller-initiated trades. In general, buys are more informative than sells. The likelihood of symmetric quote responses increases with volatility. We show that our findings are robust across different model specifications, time frequencies, and trading periods. Moreover, we find similar asymmetries in markets with different microstructures.

城市“灰色用地”土地开发模式研究

文章首先分析了传统城市规划开发模式存在的弊端,进而提出在市场经济体制下,城市规划应该由传统的用地定性模式转换为一种能适应城市动态发展和市场经济体制的模式：城市灰色用地理念。在此基础上,文章通过对现行经典的几种土地开发模式和运行策略对比研究,最终指出城市灰色用地土地开发模式的策略。     

汶川大地震灾后重建融资模式应用研究

"5.12"汶川大地震发生后,为了高效开展灾后重建工作,研究如何举全国之力多渠道筹集灾后重建资金以及解决相关应用问题,就具有重要而紧迫的现实意义了。本文针对地震灾区的实际情况,重点探讨了重建各个阶段应采用的融资模式及特点,希望以此推动灾区由被动"输血"到自行"造血"功能的转变,尽早重建美好家园。     

Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia

This paper analyzes macroeconomic interdependence among 10 Asian economies. In this connection, we decompose their macroeconomic activities (real GDP) into common and country-specific components using the Bai–Ng method (2004). Our results suggest first that both components are non-stationary and have permanent effects on their overall economy. Second, we find the relative importance of common factors in all countries in terms of their contribution to variations in real GDP. But evidence is also obtained for country-specific effects becoming increasingly important in countries like China in recent years. Therefore, if, for example, China is expected to grow at a fast pace in future, our findings imply that creation of a regional monetary union of these 10 countries needs to be held back until the Chinese economy has become more dominant in the region.     

多属性决策模型研究及应用

针对现实多属性决策问题的复杂性,提出了基于组合赋权和区间灰数的TOPSIS方法多属性决策模型。通过组合赋权确定权重并引进区间灰数描述决策者评价信息的不确定性,结合TOPSIS方法建立决策模型。最后结合实例证明该模型的有效性。