基于旅游产出体系的景区可持续发展测评模式

旅游业对地区的影响是全方位的,单纯从经济和环境的角度去评价一个景区的可持续发展状况往往会忽略旅游业的其他重要影响,从而导致评估的偏差。且目前国内通常使用的评估方法多采用一维指标体系,并通过数学模型得出评估值,这样做的不足在于评估时缺少客观的参照体系,也不易明确指出本景区在可持续发展上存在的主要问题。本文在引入旅游综合产出概念的基础上,设计出一种根据一个景区的实际产出,对照需要产出和潜在产出进行分项评估和综合测评的景区可持续发展测评模式。     

我国商业银行利率风险管理技术探究

随着利率市场化的不断深化,我国商业银行日益面临重大的利率风险。本文简要分析了利率风险的基本态势,同时考察并探究了利率风险管理技术如何适应这类变化。     

我国上市公司增发的市场效应研究

通过研究2000-2004年沪深股市实施增发的86家A股上市公司在增发公告日、上市日的表现,发现公告日、上市日的平均超额收益率均为显著的负数,且上市日的负价格效应要大于公告日。老股东优先配售比例和再发行价格/前价格均对原流通股股东发生作用,而增发价格除以每股净资产和资产负债率则更多地对新流通股股东发生作用,由此印证了最初的假设：公告日股票价格波动的行为主体是原来的流通股老股东,上市日股票价格的波动主要是受新流通股股东的影响。     

社会经济及气象因素对水稻产量的影响研究——以三江平原为例

目的 系统分析三江平原水稻产量的影响因素,对指导三江平原农业生产和耕地保护及减少未来粮食安全风险具有现实意义。方法 文章利用1988—2018年三江平原水稻产量、气象观测和社会经济数据,结合利用经济学模型——柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和统计学方法Lasso回归模型,分别分析社会经济因素和自然因素对三江平原水稻产量的影响。结果 （1）在社会经济因素方面,单位面积农村用电量和农业科研经费投入的单位面积增产效应比较明显,单位面积劳动力投入和化肥施用量对水稻产量具有负效应。（2）在自然因素方面,生长季内平均最低气温和平均日照时数对水稻产量有正向影响,生长季内总降水量和平均日相对湿度对水稻产量有负向影响。结论 为水稻生产提供政策建议： 可以通过合理施肥、加大机械化和农业科技创新的投入来提升水稻产量。同时,适当人工增加光照时间和加强冻害防治对提高水稻产量也具有重要意义。     

金融危机冲击下的中国国债利率期限结构分析

美国次贷危机不仅影响到整个美国经济,而且波及全球,导致全球金融危机。文章在阐述国债利率期限结构理论和国内外相关研究文献基础上,采用幂函数这一非线性回归模型对次贷危机时期我国国债收益率曲线的形状进行了静态拟合实证分析以及多个时点国债收益率曲线的动态分析。结果表明,我国国债市场已经逐渐走向成熟,能够较好地反映我国实际的经济运行状况以及世界金融市场受到的冲击,基本符合市场预期理论和流动性偏好理论。     

不同培养时间对决明子芽菜生物学产量和黄酮含量的影响

本文使用控温豆芽机恒温20℃培养决明子芽菜,研究不同培养时间(5 d、7 d、9 d、11 d和13 d)对决明子芽菜生物学产量和黄酮含量的影响。结果表明,决明子芽菜的胚根长度、子叶长度、胚轴长度、单株鲜重和单株净菜重在培养7 d采收时均高于5 d采收,且差异显著,7 d后各指标数值虽呈增加趋势,但是差异不显著。黄酮含量随生长期增加不断增加,但在5 d、7 d、9 d和11 d之间差异不显著,13 d时采收黄酮含量最高为16.17 mg·g^-1,且与之前不同生长期差异显著。综合生物学产量、黄酮含量及时间成本决明子芽菜培养7 d即可以进行采收。     

Margin trading,short selling,and bond yield spread

Using a quasi-natural experiment, this study examines the effects of margin trading and short selling on bond yield spread in China. It finds that both margin trading and short selling can reduce bond yield spread. Additionally, it finds that margin trading lowers firms’ debt ratios and increases their credit ratings, which explains the reduced spread. In other words, margin trading can impact investors’ decisions by revealing positive information about a firm. Another finding is that short selling lowers the bond yield spread by decreasing earnings management, suggesting that short selling has an impact on investors’ decisions through its effect on corporate governance. Our results suggest that margin trading transmits positive information and short selling impacts firms’ policies. These results provide support for future regulations of margin trading and short selling.     

From carry trades to curvy trades

Traditional carry trade strategies are based on differences in short-term interest rates, neglecting any other information embedded in yield curves. We derive return distributions of currency portfolios, where the signals to buy and sell currencies are based on summary measures of the yield curve. We find that a strategy based on the relative curvature factor, the curvy trade, yields higher Sharpe ratios and a smaller return skewness than traditional carry strategies. Curvy trades build less upon the typical carry currencies and are hence less susceptible to crash risk. In line with that, standard pricing factors of traditional carry returns fail to explain curvy trade returns.     

Locational effects and the cost of corporate bonds: the role of information

The public yield spreads of bonds vary widely between Chinese provinces/municipalities, with the average for the highest province double that of the lowest one. Although we find that these patterns are mainly attributable to economic and legal conditions, locational effects like geographic distance and public firm credit ratings also appear to be contributory. We show that these effects are induced by different regional informational environments and are robust to controlling for potential endogenous location choices.