9308房屋建筑的震害预测方法

随着城市建设的发展和人口密度的增大,地震对人类的危害越来越大,因此,做好房屋建筑震害预测工作,具有重要的现实意义,文章用结构易损性分析方法分别对房屋建筑的几种常见的结构的震害进行了预测分析。     

新疆人口城市化问题研究

运用人口普查资料及其它人口统计数据 ,分析新疆城镇人口过去 50年的变化 ,探究新疆人口城镇化过程的特征和成因 ,并运用数学模型预测未来新疆城镇人口及人口城镇化水平。提出新疆城镇体系发展战略构想及对策     

An exploratory study of operational reasons to budget

Budgets are used widely but criticized, mainly for performance evaluation reasons. We find that organizations regard budgets as more important for planning and control than evaluation, thus proposing a rationale for their continued use irrespective of evaluation‐based criticisms. This finding is also important, because most extant budget research focuses on evaluation, suggesting a potential disconnect between budget research and practice. We also find that rolling forecasts are used in tandem with the annual budget in most organizations, and for the same reasons. This was unexpected, as coexistence suggests their adoption for different reasons.     

The Lowest Supply and Demand of Engineering Officers of National Vessels in Taiwan

This article is based on the number of engineering officers from 1994 to 2000 in Taiwan, and adopts a 6-year moving average to work out the transition probability of engineering officers and to construct an absorbing Markov Transition Matrix to forecast the terms of seniority and annual supply in each hierarchy. In order to estimate the minimum number of vessels needed, this article also employed the quantity of demand for imported consumer goods from 1994 to 2000 in Taiwan and applied a Grey model to predict the annual quantity of demand for imported consumer goods. Furthermore, this article estimated the minimum number of demand for engineering officers according to the minimum number of vessels needed. In addition, this paper used cross-analysis to investigate the manpower supply and demand of engineering officers in Taiwan and obtained some important results, which can be valuable references for pertinent authorities.     

多级库存分销模型中的信息共享研究

随着供应链管理研究的深入。供应链分销系统的库存成为库存管理的一个热点。本文通过建立多级库存分销模型。运用对比定量分析．证明了多级库存分销系统中需求信息集中共享的重要性。     

Globalization, Financial Volatility and Monetary Policy

Recently it has often been claimed that globalization eases the job of central banks as it helps to tame inflation. This is used to argue that central banks (particularly the ECB, referring to the objectives as laid down in the EU Treaty) could or should reduce their efforts in the fight against inflation in favor of supporting the general economic policies of the governments. This paper takes a critical look at this argument, pointing to the structural changes associated with globalization and to the corresponding increase in uncertainty by which the central banks are affected. As an example of this, the increase in financial volatility is analyzed and explained as the result of optimal portfolio allocation, and its implications for monetary policy are discussed.     

黄山市屯溪区旅游客源市场分析及预测

在系统分析问卷调查和屯溪区相关年份旅游市场统计资料的基础上,对屯溪区2000年以来的国内外客源市场规模进行简单的阐述,并且对屯溪区国内外旅游客源市场的人口统计学特征、地域构成、决策行为特征和出游动机等进行具体的分析,最后利用线性回归模型从地域构成和规模两个方面对屯溪区客源市场的未来发展趋势进行预测.     

东北三省煤炭资源供需形势分析

国家“十一五”规划纲要对东北地区工业的发展提出了新的要求,但是近年来东北三省的煤炭资源供给小于需求,并且缺口不断加大,按照东北三省“十一五”规划纲要的目标要求,采用万元GDP能耗法预测“十一五”期间东北三省的煤炭资源供需将趋于缓和,但是增加煤炭产量和减少消费的任务十分艰巨。     

元宝枫油的市场开发策略

分析元宝枫油的研究进展、效益状况、市场预测和市场定位,提出将元宝枫油作为保健品进行市场开发的思路,指出元宝枫油在中、老年市场、青年女性和婴幼儿市场上具有相当大的竞争优势,提出在“融入日常生活的绿色环保保健油”的经营理念指导下,通过创意构思、应用市场营销策略的市场开发策略,达到将一个新型产品推向市场的目的。     

不同尺度农业预测差异及其处理

不同尺度农业预测差异是指在进行区域及其各个亚区域农业预测时，区域尺度预测结果和各个亚区域尺度预测结果之和不相等的现象。该文对此差异的产生原因进行分析后指出，历史资料的波动性是普遍存在的，历史资料拟合值的差异是导致不同尺度农业预测差异的原因。在此基础上，系统提出了以大尺度预测结果为主调整小尺度预测结果的原则。按照逐步寻优的思路，通过选择或组合应用排序修正、相关修正、增率修正、结构修正、布局修正、政策修正和趋势修正等处理方法解决不同尺度预测差异问题。