Abnormal Returns from Takeover Prediction Modelling: Challenges and Suggested Investment Strategies

While takeover targets earn significant abnormal returns, studies tend to find no abnormal returns from investing in predicted takeover targets. In this study, we show that the difficulty of correctly identifying targets ex ante does not fully explain the below‐expected returns to target portfolios. Target prediction models’ inability to optimally time impending takeovers, by taking account of pre‐bid target underperformance and the anticipation of potential targets by other market participants, diminishes but does not eliminate the potential profitability of investing in predicted targets. Importantly, we find that target portfolios are predisposed to underperform, as targets and distressed firms share common firm characteristics, resulting in the misclassification of a disproportionately high number of distressed firms as potential targets. We show that this problem can be mitigated, and significant risk‐adjusted returns can be earned, by screening firms in target portfolios for size, leverage and liquidity.     

Optimal investment-consumption-insurance with random parameters

This paper discusses an optimal investment, consumption, and life insurance purchase problem for a wage earner in a complete market with Brownian information. Specifically, we assume that the parameters governing the market model and the wage earner, including the interest rate, appreciation rate, volatility, force of mortality, premium-insurance ratio, income and discount rate, are all random processes adapted to the Brownian motion filtration. Our modeling framework is very general, which allows these random parameters to be unbounded, non-Markovian functionals of the underlying Brownian motion. Suppose that the wage earner’s preference is described by a power utility. The wage earner’s problem is then to choose an optimal investment-consumption-insurance strategy so as to maximize the expected, discounted utilities from intertemporal consumption, legacy and terminal wealth over an uncertain lifetime horizon. We use a novel approach, which combines the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) to solve this problem. In general, we give explicit expressions for the optimal investment-consumption-insurance strategy and the value function in terms of the solutions to two BSDEs. To illustrate our results, we provide closed-form solutions to the problem with stochastic income, stochastic mortality, and stochastic appreciation rate, respectively.     

Resilience: Lessons from banks that have braved the economic crisis—And from those that have not

Resilience – a firm's ability to adapt, endure, quickly bounce back, and then thrive despite a catastrophic event – addresses diverse managerial constructs including performance (Carmeli & Markman, 2011). Our exploratory study expands this line of research by making two contributions: first, we develop and test a new revelatory measure for resilience – VOLARE – combining financial performance measures with volatility data. Then, applying this new measure to the financial industry, from 2002 to 2011, we identify highly resilient international financial services firms (IFSFs; e.g., banks) and compare them with less resilient IFSFs. Second, we assess three factors – bank size, home-market solidity, and product and market complexity – that the literature has traditionally shown to be highly predictive of banks’ performance. Consistent with our expectations, the results corroborate that VOLARE is complementary to, but distinct from, traditional financial measures of firm performance. We explain these deviations from traditional studies and suggest further research topics.     

朱载堉才是“需求层次理论”的鼻祖——且更独特,更显棋高一着

以往学术界都把美国心理学家马斯洛奉为需求层次理论的鼻祖;但最新的研究成果,彻底推翻了这一陈见,认为中国明朝的科学家朱载堉才是需求层次理论的鼻祖,比美国人马斯洛还要早约三百六十多年,且朱载堉对需求层次的认知,要比马斯洛更独特,更显棋高一着。     

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND GROWTH: A SURVEY AND INTERPRETATION OF THE EVIDENCE

Abstract The literature on the relationship between the size of government and economic growth is full of seemingly contradictory findings. This conflict is largely explained by variations in definitions and the countries studied. An alternative approach – of limiting the focus to studies of the relationship in rich countries, measuring government size as total taxes or total expenditure relative to GDP and relying on panel data estimations with variation over time – reveals a more consistent picture. The most recent studies find a significant negative correlation: an increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5% to 1% lower annual growth rate. We discuss efforts to make sense of this correlation, and note several pitfalls involved in giving it a causal interpretation. Against this background, we discuss two explanations of why several countries with high taxes seem able to enjoy above average growth. One hypothesis is that countries with higher social trust levels are able to develop larger government sectors without harming the economy. Another explanation is that countries with large governments compensate for high taxes and spending by implementing market‐friendly policies in other areas. Both explanations are supported by ongoing research.     

我国新型农村金融机构存在的问题及对策分析

我国的新型农村金融机构自成立和运行以来,取得了一定的成绩,但也存在着若干问题亟待解决。本文分析了新型农村金融机构运行中存在的问题,并提出改进现状的相关建议,以更好地发挥新型农村金融机构在新农村建设中的作用。     

货币信用属性演化的历史与逻辑

通过讨论主要货币起源与演化理论的矛盾与不足,从货币取得人们信任的角度,尝试整合了货币起源与演化的事实与逻辑,由此可以认为货币的本质是信用,(商品、金属)货币和纸币一样都是信用货币,货币演化是货币内涵的威权因素和物的因素相互竞争的结果;且货币制度的核心是信用。维持人们对货币的信心与币值稳定应当是任何货币调控的出发点和归宿。     

辽宁沿海港口与东北腹地互动发展对策探讨

分析了港口与腹地的关系,对辽宁沿海港口与东北腹地互动发展的现状、在在问题进行了分析,在此基础上,从明确互动层次及港口布局分工、建立内陆干港、提升口岸服务水平、优化腹地产业结构等方面提出了推动辽宁沿海港口与东北腹地互动的对策建议。     

Foreign Direct Investment,Institutional Voids,and the Internationalization of Mining Companies into Africa

The paper investigates the factors influencing the internationalization of mining firms into Africa and the strategies employed. We find that the three most important factors identified by mining houses as influencing their decisions to invest are all related to institutional voids particular to developing countries—security of tenure, political stability and poor infrastructure. South African firms have shown themselves to be adept to doing business in volatile political and institutional environments because of their experience within their home base with relatively weaker institutions. They have therefore developed advantages over multinational enterprises from industrialized countries to doing business in these new frontiers.     

The symmetric and asymmetric influences of destination attributes on overall visitor satisfaction

Visitors are impressed by specific destination attributes, which are sometimes the main motivating reasons for the travel selection or sometimes they are just one of the elements of a whole destination experience. This is because tourism and travel products are generally a combination of several different supplier offerings or they are a combination of the natural and artificial attributes of a destination that cannot be fully known before the experience of travel. Moreover, the importance and influence of these attributes on overall visitor satisfaction may differ considerably, depending on the market segments. In recent years, some studies have shown that the influences of destination attributes on overall visitor satisfaction are not symmetric in every case. For the purposes of this study, the symmetric and asymmetric influences of destination attributes are investigated for three major market segments of the Side-Manavgat area, Antalya, Turkey. The results show that the importance and influences of destination attributes may change according to the analysis technique employed and the market segment examined.