2006年全球经济展望:维持增长然幅度较缓慢

预计发达国家今明两年的经济增长将减缓,发展中国家虽然保持稳健增长的态势,但增长率将从2004年的6.8%减缓至2005年的5.8%,2006年则进一步减至5.7%。中国2006年全年继续维持9%左右的经济增长不致有太大问题。唯一担心的是2006年上半年中国可能出现通货紧缩。     

Two-dimensional mapping of Asia Pacific destinations combining tourism and economic indicators

The present study aims to cluster five Asia Pacific destinations (Cambodia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore) with respect to other countries according to the evolution of the main tourism and economic indicators over the period between 2000 and 2014. By assigning a numerical value to each country corresponding to its position, we summarize all the information into two components (“tourism expenditure and profitability of tourism activity” and “tourism development and economic growth”) using different multivariate techniques for dimensionality reduction. By means of perceptual maps, we find that the five Asia Pacific destinations can be clustered into three different groups: Hong Kong and Singapore, which are the most mature markets; Indonesia and the Philippines, with moderate growth rates in most variables; and Cambodia, with top positions in all variables, showing a huge potential in terms of growth and tourism development and the challenges derived therefrom.     

Housing Preferences of Temporary Migrants in Urban China in the wake of Gradual Hukou Reform: A Case Study of Shenzhen

In the wake of the recent announcement by the State Council concerning the provision of public rental housing across China, and the gradual reform of China's household registration system (hukou), this article explores how potential adjustments in government housing policies (namely access to public rental housing) influence the housing preferences of temporary migrants who are currently residing inside the chengzhongcun (urban villages) of Shenzhen. The results indicate that dissatisfaction with rental cost and living conditions in these urban villages are the key reasons for migrants wishing to move into public rental housing if it is offered to them — and not the fact that they are treated differently within the hukou system. Public rental housing is welcomed in particular by newly arriving migrants who live outside the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ), and migrants who have decided to remain in Shenzhen for the foreseeable future. By contrast, dissatisfaction with urban villages is the sole contributor to housing preferences for those residing inside the SEZ.     

Gentrification in Hong Kong? Epistemology vs. Ontology

This article examines the transferability of the concept of gentrification away from its Anglo‐American heartland to the cities of Asia Pacific and specifically Hong Kong. An epistemological argument challenges such theoretical licence, claiming that conceptual overreach represents another example of Anglo‐American hegemony asserting the primacy of its concepts in other societies and cultures. Past research suggests that if gentrification exists in Asia Pacific cities it bears some definite regional specificities of urban form, state direction and, most surprising from a Western perspective, a potentially progressive dimension for some impacted residents. Closer examination of urban discourse in Hong Kong is conducted through analysis of English and Chinese language newspapers. In both instances, gentrification is barely used to describe the pervasive processes of urban redevelopment, which otherwise receive abundant coverage. Interviews with local housing experts confirm the marginality of gentrification in academic and public discourse, and the power of a local ideology that sees urban (re)development unproblematically as a means of upward social mobility. However, in the decade‐long housing bust after 1997, growing inequality has encouraged a nascent class analysis of the property market, an ontological awakening that may prove more favourable to the identification of gentrification in an Asia Pacific idiom.     

Examining dynamic currency linkages amongst South Asian economies: An empirical study

In this paper, we examine the currency market linkages of South Asian member countries using daily data from 6 January 2004 to 31st March 2016. Time invariant and varying Copula GARCH models show that South Asian countries, except for India and Nepal/Bhutan, have low levels of currency market linkages which can be ascribed to poor levels of intra-regional trade intensity and portfolio flows. We reconfirm the copula results through Diebold and Yilmaz methodology and document that currency market connectedness is very limited in the South Asian region. The trends of the fundamental determinants of currency co-movements for the South Asian member countries were compared with its neighbouring regional economic bloc in Asia which has a much longer history and a wider membership base i.e ASEAN + 6. From a comparative analysis, it was found that South Asia member states have to work on their governance parameters, improve on their trade linkages and trade tariffs and work towards greater degree of capital account convertibility with adequate safeguards to achieve higher levels of currency market linkages.     

Corporate Cash Holding in Asia

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of corporate saving in the form of changes in cash holdings for 11 Asian economies using firm‐level data from the Oriana Database for the 2002–2011 period. We find some evidence that cash flow has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings (i.e. that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is positive) and that the positive impact of cash flow on the change in cash holdings is larger and more significant in the case of smaller and presumably more constrained firms than in the case of larger and presumably less constrained firms in both developed and developing economies. Both of these findings corroborate the importance of financial constraints in Asian firms. In addition, we find that the cash flow sensitivity of cash declined after the global financial crisis and that Tobin's q has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings, especially in the case of larger and presumably unconstrained firms.     

The effects of regional trade integration and renewable energy transition on environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian neighbors

Improving environmental quality across South Asia has become one of the utmost important policy agendas of the concerned governments. The susceptibility of the majority of the South Asian countries to multifaceted climate change adversities has motivated the need to identify the factors that can function to ensure environmental sustainability across South Asia. Although several studies have highlighted the importance of globalization and cleaner energy use in tackling the environmental degradaton issues of the South Asian countries, very little is known regarding the impacts of regional trade and renewable energy transition in this regard. Hence, this paper aims to scrutinize the effects of enhancing intra-regional trade integration and undergoing renewable energy transition on per capita carbon dioxide emissions in the context of six South Asian nations between 1990 and 2016. The results from the recently developed cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag regression approach, accounting for cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity issues, reveal that facilitating trade among the South Asian neighbors reduces carbon emissions in both the short and long run. Moreover, enhancing the share of renewable energy in the aggregate energy consumption figures is also found to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in both the short and long run. Furthermore, both regional trade integration and renewable energy transition are found to jointly reduce carbon dioxide emissions in South Asia. The results also authenticate the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, while financial development and urbanization are found to boost carbon dioxide emissions only in the long run.