Dynamic correlation and equicorrelation analysis of global financial turmoil: evidence from emerging East Asian stock markets

This study investigates the dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between eight emerging East Asian stock markets and the US stock market and analyses the dynamic equicorrelation among these nine stock markets. We find a significant increase in the conditional correlations and equicorrelation in the first phase of the global financial crisis. We refer to this finding as contagion from the US stock market to the emerging East Asian markets. We also find an additional significant process of increasing correlations and equicorrelation (herding) in the second phase of the global financial crisis. Further, we employ two new models, namely DCCX-MGARCH (a DCC Multivariate GARCH model with exogenous variables) and DECOX-MGARCH (a dynamic equicorrelation multivariate GARCH model with exogenous variables), to identify the channels of contagion. We find that an increase in the VIX Index increases the conditional correlations and equicorrelation, while increases in TED spreads decrease the conditional correlations of six emerging East Asian countries with the USA. We compare the accuracy of the conditional correlation estimates of the DCC and DCCX models (or DECO and DECOX models) by constructing a loss function. We find that the DCCX (DECOX) model provides more accurate conditional correlation estimates than the DCC (DECO) model by extracting additional information from exogenous variables.     

Optimal equity infusions in interbank networks

We study optimal equity infusions into a financial network prone to the risk of contagious failures, which may be due to insolvency or to bank runs by short term creditors. Bank runs can be triggered by failures of connected banks.Under complete information on interbank linkages, we show that the problem reduces to a combinatorial optimization problem. Subject to budget constraints, the government chooses the set of minimal cost whose survival induces the maximum network stability. Our results demonstrate that the optimal equity infusion might significantly mitigate failure contagion risk and stabilize the system. In the case of partial information on the network, the controllers’ focus swiftly changes from preventing insolvencies to preventing runs by short term creditors.     

浙江企业“担保链”问题分析

浙江企业间的担保互助融资现象由来已久。但区别于以往,目前浙江企业"担保链"已超越了单纯的连带责任担保,并且隐藏了大量的交叉互保现象,甚至形成隐性担保圈,涉及面广、问题复杂。从目前情况看,企业担保制度并不是浙江担保链风险的症结所在,真正的危险是担保链上企业的主业现金流、自身资产累积与企业整体债务水平及对外担保额不匹配而造成的虚假繁荣。     

Unraveling the Financial Contagion in European Stock Markets During Financial Crises: Multi-Timescale Analysis

The article investigates the evidence of financial contagion and market integration in selected European equity markets during nine major crises across regions. The focus is to identify whether (i) contagion evidence is pure or fundamental and (ii) dynamic evolution of integration is in the short run or long run. Wavelet decomposition in both its discrete and continuous forms is used. The findings reveal the following: (i) prior to the subprime crisis, contagion effects generated short-term shocks. The most recent US subprime crisis, however, reveals the evidence of fundamental based contagion. (ii) We find increasing short-run and long-run stock market integration, driven by several stages of the establishment of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), questioning the ultimate benefits of formal entry into EMU membership.     

财务重述中关联股东网络的传染机制研究

从关联股东的角度研究财务重述在股东社会网络中传染的可能性。结果表明,曾经持有财务重述公司股份的股东,在持有下一家公司股份时,再次发生财务重述行为的概率会降低。但是,如果关联发生在重述公司重述前,关联公司重述的可能性则会显著增加,并且上述关系会受到关联股东地位的调节影响。本文从所有权网络的行为层面为财务重述研究提供了新的角度,也为应对上市公司财务重述提供了新的思路。     

Financial Integration in Emerging Asia: Challenges and Prospects

Using both quantity‐ and price‐based measures of financial integration, the paper shows an increasing degree of financial openness and integration in emerging Asia. Assessing the impact of a regional shock relative to a global shock on local equity and bond markets, the findings suggest that the region's equity markets are integrated more globally than regionally, although the degrees of both regional and global integration have increased significantly since the 1997/1998 Asian financial crisis. However, emerging Asia's local currency bond markets remain generally segmented, being neither regionally nor globally integrated. There are potential benefits from increased regional integration of financial markets. Financial integration at the regional level allows for the region's economies to benefit from allocation efficiency and risk diversification. Policymakers in the region must strike the right balance between maximizing the net benefits from regional and global financial openness, and minimizing the potential costs of financial contagion and crisis.     

中国债券市场与股票市场间波动溢出效应——基于SJC-Copula模型的分析

本文基于SJC-Copula模型分析债券市场和股票市场间的波动溢出效应,并以此进一步分析波动溢出效应对债券市场风险规避能力的影响。研究选取2003年3月31日至2009年8月31日中信标普国债指数日数据和上证指数日数据,验证了两市波动溢出效应的存在性,同时发现波动溢出效应显著增强了债券市场规避风险的能力。     

Modelling the propagation of adult male muscle dysmorphia in Spain: economic,emotional and social drivers

Males aged over 40 do more gym practice to improve their body image as a way of reinforcing their personal self-esteem and sexual appeal. Cases when self-image becomes an obsession may result in a body dysmorphic disorder named ‘muscle dysmorphia’ (MD). The combination of psychological, environmental and biological drivers determines the appearance and development of this disorder. In this article, we developed a discrete population mathematical model to forecast the rate of prevalence of males who are noncompetitive bodybuilders at risk of suffering MD in Spain in forthcoming years. Economic, emotional, sociological and psychological motivations were taken into account to quantify the dynamic behaviour of Spanish noncompetitive bodybuilders. The impact of the unemployment is reflected in the construction of two coefficients, α_u and α₂₁, which explain subpopulation transits due to the economy. Sociological influences, such as human herding and social propagation, were also considered. Our results predict an increase in Spanish noncompetitive bodybuilders suffering MD from 1% in 2011 to around 11% in 2015. Our model can be applied to any other western country where data are available and to another study period when the hypotheses are applicable.     

International Stock Market Efficiency and Integration: A Study of Eighteen Nations

This study examines the relationships among stock prices in eighteen national stock markets by using unit root and cointegration tests for the period 1961--92. All the markets were analyzed individually and collectively in regions to test for market efficiency. The results from unit root tests suggest that the world equity markets are weak-form efficient. The cointegration test results show that there are only a small number of significant cointegrating vectors over the last three decades. However, the number of significant cointegrating vectors increases after the October 1987 stock market crash, a result that is consistent with the contagion effect.     

制度环境、制度创新与银行资本结构优化目标

银行资本结构优化目标是银行资本理论需要探讨的重要问题.从政府关于商业银行改革的目标出发,我国商业银行的资本结构优化应针对转轨时期的制度环境,以制度创新为重点确立三大目标,即安全经营目标、国有资本相对控股下的治理优化目标和基于经济资本的价值最大化目标.