Can banks default overnight? Modelling endogenous contagion on the O/N interbank market

We propose a new model of the liquidity-driven banking system focusing on overnight interbank loans. This significant branch of the interbank market is commonly neglected in the banking system modelling and systemic risk analysis. We construct a model where banks are allowed to use both the interbank and the securities markets to manage their liquidity demand and supply as driven by prudential requirements in a volatile environment. The network of interbank loans is dynamic and simulated every day. We show how the intrasystem cash fluctuations alone, without any external shocks, may lead to systemic defaults, and what may be a symptom of the self-organized criticality of the system. We also analyze the impact of different prudential regulations and market conditions on the interbank market resilience. We confirm that the central bank’s asset purchase programmes, limiting the declines in government bond prices, can successfully stabilize banks’ liquidity demands. The model can be used to analyze the interbank market impact of macroprudential tools.     

Technological innovation and complexity theory

Complexity theory has become influential in recent models in social science. In the context of innovations and new technologies, most applications have focused on technology adoption and technology diffusion, whereas the topic of the innovation process has received less attention. This paper discusses three families of complexity models of technological innovation: fitness landscape models, network models and percolation models. The models are capable of analysing complex interaction structures (between components of technologies, between agents engaged in collective invention) while avoiding ‘over-parameterisation’. The paper ends with discussing the methodological challenges and critiques regarding the application of complexity theory that remain.     

Small enterprises as complex adaptive systems: a methodological question?

Complexity science constitutes an emerging post-positivist interdisciplinary field of investigation of dynamical systems in the natural and physical worlds. The central concept of complexity is that interactions between parts of open systems create novel, unpredictable patterns, and that while the history of the system is relevant in understanding its dynamic, the isolation of individual parts of the system (analysis) does not reveal the casual mechanisms in the system. It is suggested that complexity science can inform our methodologies for investigating the social sciences. The paper explores whether complexity science offers ways of theory building that can take account of pluralistic or interdisciplinary research in enterprise dynamics. The authors offer a model of six theorized ontological layers, derived from the canon of research literature within a small enterprise domain, with boundaries at each end. It is suggested that dynamical concepts of agency (adaption, evolution, fitness, interdependence) coupled with the theory of evolutionary autopoietic structures generate a plausible field for the study of enterprise dynamics. A focus on ontological and experimental adequacy is necessary to develop theory within this framework. An appropriate methodology involves iterations between experimental forms of scientific analysis and the grounding of emergent or evolving theories.     

创新驱动战略下省域协同创新合作水平比较研究

鉴于创新要素流动受到省域户籍、财政等政策的影响,以省域为研究载体,研究省域协同创新主体间互动可以动态反映在同一基础条件下创新驱动经济的协同过程。以复合系统理论为基础,构建了包含科技服务子系统的协同创新联盟复合系统理论模型,基于湖北、湖南和江西三省2009-2014年面板数据,运用复合系统协同度模型对协同创新联盟复合系统进行实证分析。通过比较各省复合系统中子系统有序度、协同度以及各个协同创新子系统有序度,发现不同地区创新优势不同,各地协同创新联盟核心创新主体应有差异;政府是否参与协同创新应有所选择;湖北省复合系统应深化科技服务子系统下层子系统与高校子系统、科研机构子系统间联系;江西省复合系统应以产业子系统为突破口,形成多向发展的可能。     

市场学习能力、技术复杂性与新产品开发绩效关系研究

在开放式创新背景下,市场学习能力与新产品开发绩效的关系越来越受到关注。基于动态能力理论的“市场学习能力-产品开发流程能力-新产品开发绩效”理论框架展开实证分析,结果表明：产品开发流程能力在市场学习能力与新产品开发绩效间发挥中介作用;技术复杂性提高会强化市场学习能力对产品开发流程效率的促进作用、抑制市场知识探索对产品开发流程反应性的促进作用。     

中国区域知识复杂性测度及其对创新的影响

十九大报告明确提出，创新是引领发展的第一动力，是建设现代化经济体系的战略支撑。知识作为创新的核心驱动力，其重要性受到众多学者的关注。基于伊达尔戈等的HH反射方法，利用15 988 864件中国专利数据，测度中国内地31个省市区知识复杂程度，并检验其对创新产出的影响。结果发现：①虽然东部地区的稀缺技术掌握能力高于中、西部，但中、西部地区落后境况不断改善，正逐渐进入新的技术领域；②知识复杂性对创新高效区域（东部）的影响更大，但低效地区（中、西部）具有更高的稀缺知识边际增益。以上发现的政策含义是，区域不应仅谋求单一领域内的竞争优势,应以兼顾聚集多样化和高质量知识为最终政策目标。     

Complexity and the limits to learning

In this paper we look at the manner in which ideas coming from complexity science change our understanding of the cognitive powers of agents that is really necessary to explain the evolution of markets and of firms. The general ideas behind complex systems dynamics and evolution are presented and then two examples are treated in detail. The first in an evolutionary model of a market in which some new product is developed by competing firms and their “task” is to find a strategy in terms of quality and price that will be sustainable. This essentially requires agents/firms to discover mutually compatible strategies, and to create thereby sustainable market niches. The second example considers the internal structure of firms, in terms of their constituent working practices and skills. It demonstrates that it is precisely their ignorance of the consequences of adopting any particular practice that generates diversity in the emergent capabilities of firms, exploring the dimension of potential demand and therefore leading to a successful and sustainable business sector. The work supports the notion that the cognitive abilities that are involved are not about deduction and logic, as a traditional view of rationality might suggest, but are about the development and contraction of interpretive frameworks, which will be different for each player. The paper links these examples to a general recognition of the idea that complex, multi-agent systems evolve through successive “structural attractors”—multi-dimensional dynamical systems—with temporary structural stability. Because real systems contain both the structure and deviations from it, then there is a constant probing of structural stability and the possibility of qualitative change to a new structural attractor. This resembles the ideas in biological evolution related to “punctuated equilibria,” but it also links this to the idea of emergent and evolving networks of interaction, never of course near thermodynamic equilibrium.      

Customer Profitability Analysis Reports for Resource Allocation: The Role of Complex Marketing Environments

Most decision making research in management accounting remains focused on cost information in a production context. Little is known on the relevance of customer profifitability analysis (CuPA) reports, which more accurately reflect revenue and marketing support variations acrosscustomers, for marketing decisions. This study uses an experimental design to examine the impact of such reports on resource allocation decisions (that affect the firm's profits) in marketing environments varying in complexity. The main result of the experiment suggests that the value of CuPA reports depends on the complexity of the marketing setting. Only in a highly complex marketing setting do they enhance resource allocation decisions and resultant firm profitability. Conversely, in the simple marketing environment, decision makers can combine their traditional volume-based cost data with other available types of feedback to perform as well as under a more accurate CuPA report. These findings on complexity contrast with those of a prior study in a production context ( Gupta and King, 1997 ). It is argued that improvements in the current research design, in the form of regularly updated profitability reports and concerning accuracy, increase the relevance of CuPA reports in a complex marketing setting.     

论无尺度网络与互联网安全

文章从系统的角度对互联网安全问题进行了分析和讨论,指出互联网是一个复杂性网络和无尺度网络。互联网的无尺度特征,应该促使我们改变制定安全策略的思路,加强对无尺度网络的研究,对互联网安全问题具有重要的指导意义。     

Evolutionary stability and lexicographic preferences

We explore the interaction between evolutionary stability and lexicographic preferences. To do so, we define a limit Nash equilibrium for a lexicographic game as the limit of Nash equilibria of nearby games with continuous preferences. Nash equilibria of lexicographic games are limit Nash equilibria, but not conversely. Modified evolutionarily stable strategies (Binmore and Samuelson, 1992. J. Econ. Theory 57, 278–305) are limit Nash equilibria. Modified evolutionary stability differs from “lexicographic evolutionarily stability” (defined by extending the common characterization of evolutionary stability to lexicographic preferences) in the order in which limits in the payoff space and the space of invasion barriers are taken.