Monetary policy shocks and exchange rates in Asian countries

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates in Asian countries. To do so, we use VAR models which impose sign restrictions on impulse responses to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to significant exchange rate appreciation in Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea. However, in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, we find either a significant depreciation or no significant effect. These results suggest that an interest rate increase (or decrease) may not necessarily shield Asian countries from exchange rate depreciation (or appreciation) pressure following a U.S. interest rate increase (or decrease).     

Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty

This article investigates how uncertainty impacts the effect of monetary policy surprises on stock returns. Using high-frequency US data, we demonstrate that stock markets respond more aggressively to monetary policy surprises during periods of high uncertainty. We also show that uncertainty asymmetrically influences the transmission of positive and negative monetary policy surprises to stock market prices. The amplifying effect of uncertainty is found to be stronger for expansionary shocks than for contractionary shocks. Our robustness analysis confirms that financial uncertainty has a significant role in shaping the influence of monetary policy on the stock market.     

Monetary policy rules with PID control features: evidence from the UK,USA and EU

ABSTRACT

This paper considers the extent to which the monetary policy operations of three major central banks can be regarded as an application of Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control rules. The paper outlines the general PID framework and estimates a series of dynamic models to identify how interest rate policy adjustments are affected by the rate of inflation and the level of macroeconomic activity. The paper examines data for the UK, the USA and the Eurozone. The results suggest that the PID rules can provide a useful theoretical and empirical framework for estimating central bank responses to the inflation and macroeconomic activity variables by improving the explanatory power of the Taylor rule model and determining the effect of the parameters.     

The impact of macroeconomic factors on income inequality: Evidence from the BRICS

In this paper we investigate how the evolution of income growth, real interest rates, and inflation have driven income inequality across a variety of countries with particular focus on the BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) during the period 2001 to 2015. Our work suggests that, when central banks of the BRICS economies use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization, they need to consider the impact monetary policy changes have on the distribution of income in their nations. Our estimates reveal that the unintended consequence of policies that induce economic growth and higher prices is higher income inequality. We find that the positive relationship between the three macroeconomic variables and income inequality for the BRICS economies is stronger during the post-2008 period.     

On the role of Islamic and conventional banks in the monetary policy transmission in Malaysia: Do size and liquidity matter?

This paper empirically investigates the impact of monetary policy on the credit supply of Islamic versus conventional banks of Malaysia using an unbalanced panel dataset over the period 2005-2016. While estimating the effects of three alternative measures of monetary policy on banks' credit supply, we include several bank-specific and macroeconomic variables in the specification as control variables. We provide strong evidence on the existence of the credit channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Malaysia. Yet, we show that Islamic banks respond considerably less to changes in monetary policy instruments as compared to their conventional counterparts. We also find that the monetary policy measures affect small-sized banks and less-liquid banks more as compared to large-sized and more-liquid banks. Our findings suggest that for an effective monetary policy, there is a vital need to consider the nature of Islamic banking while devising any monetary policy instruments to manage credit supply in the economy.     

Joint audits and mutual ties of audit firm networks

There has been a lively debate following the 2007 financial crisis regarding the role of joint audits. Prior research argues that joint audits may improve audit quality because of shared audit efforts. However, empirical evidence has been inconclusive. To gain insight into how Big 4 audit firm imprimaturs have become a source of legitimacy in the audit industry, this article investigates how audit networks drive the audit industry in Saudi Arabia. Based on the application of quantitative and qualitative research methods, we conclude that the Big 4 audit firms have strong mutual ties, but ties with other local and international audit firms are weak. We also find the oligopolistic nature of the Big 4 audit firms and international audit firms. Specifically, Ernst & Young, KPMG, PwC, and PKF are controlling over 68% of the audit market. Interviews with accounting professionals suggest that several benefits of joint audits exist, but certain additional costs are also implicated. Our findings are particularly relevant for regulators and local and international policymakers in rethinking and evaluating the appropriateness of either the mandatory or voluntary nature of joint audits in developing countries.     

The pro-cyclicality of risk weights for credit exposures: Driven by the retail segment

This paper examines the pro-cyclicality of implicit risk weights of credit exposures and the potential contribution of accommodative monetary policy using data for the Czech Republic. The empirical results indicate that risk weights behave pro-cyclically under the IRB approach and acyclically under the STA approach. The pro-cyclical behaviour of IRB risk weights is caused primarily by the retail exposures, the strongest effects being in the highest and lowest quantiles of risk weights. The risk weights for retail exposures behave pro-cyclically not only with regard to the business cycle, but also with respect to the financial cycle and house price growth. In addition, monetary policy easing contributes to the pro-cyclicality in higher quantiles of risk weights.     

Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union

Our paper explores the prospects for the proposed East African Monetary Union (EAMU) by employing rigorous empirical tools to analyse business cycles synchronisation, structural cross-correlations, spectral decomposition and regional clusters to identify different cyclical episodes, periodicities and characterise the economic cycles of East African countries. We find that cyclical movements reflect various idiosyncratic, common, historical and external shocks in the region. Secondly, all countries appear to be structurally correlated with each other except for South Sudan and Burundi. Our results also observe that the contemporaneous co-movements of East African Community (EAC) cycles with those of Kenya and Tanzaniaare procyclical with coincidental path shift, while the same EAC cycles appear to be acyclical with those of Burundi. Additionally, from the spectral decomposition, Kenyan cycles take 10 years to complete, while those of Tanzania and Rwanda take 8 years. Ugandan and Burundian cycles take approximately 5 years, while the cyclical frequency for South Sudan corresponds to 3.3 years. Finally, the cluster characterisation of countries reveals that South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda form a group, while Kenya and Tanzania from a group distinct from the rest. We urge the member countries to prioritise policies on regional risk-sharing and adjustment mechanisms, in addition to establishing credible institutional infrastructure that ensures surveillance and enforcement of convergence conditions adopted in EAMU protocol.     

Effects of monetary policy on the REIT returns: Evidence from the United Kingdom

In this paper, we analyze whether a monetary policy based on three main variables (inflation, money supply, and output gap) has a nonlinear impact on real estate investment trust (REIT) markets. In addition, we extend our analysis to examine whether these monetary policy components impact the possibility of boom and bust regimes occurring in the market. Empirically, we propose different Markov-switching model variants to determine the nonlinear time-varying impact of monetary policy on the REIT market. Our results show the monetary policy environment is supposed to affect, on one hand, the REIT returns and, on the other hand, the possibility of boom and bust markets. We prove that expansionary monetary policy has an impact only in the case of boom market. However, an increase in the inflation rate decreases the probability of remaining in the bust regime. As a consequence, we have already outlined several monetary transmission mechanisms that show house prices to have important effects on aggregate demand. Our results confirm that REIT markets are not efficient.