国际货币体系改革——金融危机后的思考

美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机,使现行国际货币体系—牙买加体系的缺陷进一步暴露出来:美元本位制放纵了美国的过度消费,国际资本流动缺乏监管以及不稳定的汇率体系加剧了危机蔓延。虽然对国际货币体系的改革面临美元霸权、改革成本高等方面的阻碍,但改革现行的IMF以及扩展国际救助范围,加强金融监管力度已然成为改革方向。     

Lessons from the EMU for Asian Regional Integration: An Economic Perspective

Critical costs and benefits of creating an EMU-like structure in Asia are identified. Analyzing the EU, we pay particular attention to two kinds of economic benefits and costs that do not appear much in conventional economic analysis. First, there are benefits and costs of harmonization in different areas including the monetary area. Second, giving up sovereignty within a policy area can provide many countries with a kind of insurance against domestic institutional, legal, and political weaknesses. Although we emphasize economic arguments it is necessary to recognize that the EU is very much a politically motivated project. Politics may well be the biggest obstacle to an EMU-like monetary system in Asia. Conditions in Asia require consideration of alternatives to a monetary union since there exist disparate economic and political systems that may well prove impossible to fully integrate.     

金融投资理论：一种基于动物精神和宏观对冲的框架

2008年全球金融危机后,金融投资理论在重新理解和抽象真实世界的基础上,对主流估值模型、投资者行为和全球宏观对冲等几个重要方面进行了深刻反思。总的来看,微观层面的进展,一是进一步认识到把投资者情绪引入传统基本面估值模型中的意义;二是利用动物精神理论发展了对投资者认知规律、决策过程和群体行为的研究。宏观层面的进展表现为提出了储蓄者和非储蓄者模型以及＂新常态＂和国际货币新体系的观念。

Abstract：

After global financial crisis in 2008,on the basis of reunderstanding the real world and putting it in abstract terms,financial investment theory has thoroughly rethought its keyaspects including mainstream valuation models,investor behavior and global macro hedging,etc. In summary,one of the developments in the micro perspective is the further realization ofthe significance of integrating investor sentiment into traditional fundamental valuation models,and another development lies in the research on investor perception,decision process and herd behavior based on the theory of animal spirits. Development in the macro perspective resides in the introduction of the model of saves and dissavers,as well as the ideas of new normal and new international monetary system.     

MONETARY POLICY IN A NON‐REPRESENTATIVE AGENT ECONOMY: A SURVEY

It is well known that central bank policies affect not only macroeconomic aggregates, but also their distribution across economic agents. Similarly, a number of papers demonstrated that heterogeneity of agents may matter for the transmission of monetary policy to macro variables. Despite this, the mainstream monetary economics literature has so far been dominated by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with representative agents. This paper aims to tilt this imbalance towards heterogeneous agents setups by surveying the main positive and normative findings of this line of the literature, and suggesting areas in which these models could be implemented. In particular, we review studies that analyse the heterogeneity of (i) households’ income, (ii) households’ preferences, (iii) consumers’ age, (iv) expectations and (v) firms’ productivity and financial position. We highlight the results on issues that, by construction, cannot be investigated in a representative agent framework and discuss important papers modifying the findings from the representative agent literature.     

外汇市场压力问题的研究综述

本文从外汇市场压力的测度、外汇市场压力与货币政策、外汇市场压力与货币危机的识别与测度以及外汇市场压力与汇率制度四个方面总结了国外研究者对此的最新研究成果,从中我们发现外汇市场压力对于一国经济有着重要的影响,特别是在当前通胀预期下,外汇市场压力与我国资产价格波动和货币政策之间的相互作用过程值得我们去进一步研究。     

The Asian Crisis,Gender, and the International Financial Architecture

This paper begins with an account of the Asian crisis, its creation and management by international financial institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank), and the gender impact of their stabilization and structural adjustment programs. Next we consider the new debate on reforming the IMF and the World Bank and restructuring the international financial architecture to prevent crises and manage them more effectively. Finally, we consider the gender ramifications of these changes. Since feminists have been absent from this debate, we examine issues essential to the formation of a gender-conscious international financial structure.     

贷款准备金政策框架下的区域货币政策独立性

美国次贷危机引发这轮全球性金融危机凸显了以美国为核心的金融资本主义模式和以美元为核心国际货币金融体系的制度性缺陷,改革现行以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系势在必行,建立货币区是较为现实的选择。但在现行货币政策框架下,货币区建设不可避免会陷入三元悖论困境。本文提出在贷款准备金政策框架下,货币区能在保证其内在要求的资本自由流动和汇率稳定基本前提下,区内各个成员仍能保持货币政策独立性。     

Time is not money

In an ultimatum bargaining experiment, we study how subjects bargain over the returns to their investments of money and time. The most notable finding is that a third of the subjects demand no compensation for their time investments, whereas almost all subjects demand compensation for equally costly monetary investments.     

The Taylor principle in a medium-scale macroeconomic model

We consider a medium-scale New-Keynesian model which combines features that have been shown to explain fairly well postwar U.S. business cycles. Our main result demonstrates that the determinacy properties of forward-looking interest rate rules resemble, at least qualitatively, the corresponding outcomes under current-looking rules. We explain how and why the empiri-cally relevant features of our model generate this novel result.     

The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan

Many studies have observed the leading indicator property of the term spread (LIPTS), which indicates that the term spread—the difference between long- and short-term interest rates—has information on future economic conditions. We examine whether this property is related to monetary policy or not by using Japanese monthly data with consideration for structural changes. Results of structural change tests show that the term spread has predictive ability for the future economic activity from 1982:4 to 1997:8. Decomposing the term spread into three parts; one is explained by past monetary policy shocks, another is explained by expected future call rates and the other is the remaining part, we find that all three parts are significantly related to the future economic growth rate. Hence, we find that the monetary policy plays an important role for the LIPTS.