Determinants of Real Estate Asset Allocations in Private and Public Pension Plans

Numerous studies have examined the factors associated with allocation of corporate and government pension-plan assets. Yet to date there has been no attempt to identify the sponsor-related conditions that affect the percentage of U.S. private and public pension-fund assets invested in real estate. The purpose of this article is to examine various asset-and liability-matching hypotheses regarding pension-plan asset allocations. Models are specified for both corporate and government defined-benefit plans that relate the characteristics of each plan to the percentage allocated to real estate investments. Our results confirm the existence of a significant size effect for both corporate and government pension plans, although we find mean levels of real estate allocation to be much lower than those suggested in previous real estate allocation studies. The article, however, contains some anomalous findings. In particular, our findings suggest that pension-plan sponsors do not hedge their real estate risk. We also find that pension-plan sponsors do not invest in real estate, as theory might suggest, to minimize the noise level in their pension liabilities.     

The Impact of Initial-Year Discounts on ARM Prepayments

This study uses new data on the rate of prepayment on conventional single-family adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that originated between 1983 and 1986 to determine if ARMs with and without initial-year discounts have the same probability of paying off. The new data are from a large national private mortgage insurer in the United States. Each loan is tracked from its origination date through prepayment or the end of 1991. Nonparametric test statistics are used to test for differences in these prepayment rates. The findings suggest that ARMs with initial-year discounts are paid off at a rate that is essentially no different from the rate on otherwise comparable ARMs without initial-year discounts.     

Security Deposits, Adverse Selection and Office Leases

Our focus in this article is on the extent to which security deposits allow landlords to contract on the intensity with which tenants utilize office space. Much existing discussion recognizes that landlords expect some tenants to be more opportunistic than others, but that landlords often cannot predict a tenant's future behavior. As a consequence, landlords will charge all tenants, both low-utilization and high-utilization ones, a rental externality premium. This rental externality premium gives low-utilization tenants (or tenants with better credit quality than the market perceives) a strong incentive to sort themselves out. Our findings suggest that office rental contracts with large up-front security deposits are one way in which different tenant types can sort themselves out. Such contracts reduce landlord uncertainty and imply rental discounts in excess of the foregone interest on the deposit monies.     

Influence of Rent Differentials on the Choice between Office Rent Contracts with and without Relocation Provisions

In this paper we concern ourselves empirically with the influence of rent differentials on the choice between rent contracts with and without relocation provisions investigating the effects of relocation provisions on office rents. The study departs from the extant literature by using a switching simultaneous-equations model to estimate hedonic rent functions for alternative office lease contracts with choices of relocation provisions. The empirical results suggest that price considerations and certain lease terms are important determinants of the choice of office relocation rights. The results also suggest that certain tenant characteristics, like tenant size and creditworthiness, have only a marginal effect on the choice of relocation rights.     

Do Teaser-Rate Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Make Owner-Occupied Housing More Affordable?

In this paper, we estimate the structural parameters of an aggregate housing demand curve and the relationship between ARM teaser rates and house prices using a simultaneous-equation Tobit model. The data come primarily from the Federal Housing Finance Board monthly interest rate survey in May of 1987-1989. The empirical results suggest that teaser ARMs produce significant price distortions in local housing markets. These price distortions ameliorate housing affordability for teaser ARM borrowers and worsen affordability problems for all other homebuyers.     

Is It What We Do or How We Do It? New Evidence on Agglomeration Economies and Metropolitan Growth

This paper uses data on U.S. metropolitan areas from 1970 to 1999 to examine the extent to which recent increases in earnings are attributable to agglomeration economies. We decompose the total change in earnings over the 1970–1999 period into components attributable to changes in relative growth, industry mix and interaction effects. We find strong evidence that relative growth matters more than industry mix. In addition, we find that relative growth effects are related to both localization and urbanization economies.     

Are Commercial Mortgage Defaults Affected by Tax Considerations?

We study whether tax considerations are an important determinant of commercial mortgage default. We also study whether large lenders are better informed, or better at interpreting information for lending purposes, and hence have lower foreclosure rates; whether lenders have more information on larger borrowers than smaller borrowers, and hence have lower foreclosure rates on larger loans; and whether commercial mortgage defaults are related to debt service coverage and loan-to-values, both initial and contemporaneous. The paper’s main findings are fourfold. First, holding all else equal, there is evidence that tax considerations influence investors’ decisions about when to “put” assets to lenders. The results are consistent with the argument of Constantinides (J Financ Econ 13:65–89, 1984). Second, the evidence suggests that large lenders are especially knowledgeable about commercial mortgage borrowers and commercial property markets, in that they have lower foreclosure rates than smaller lenders. Third, on the question of whether lenders have more information on larger borrowers than smaller borrowers, we find that larger loans have, on average, lower default rates than smaller loans. Fourth, the findings suggest that lower default rates are associated with higher debt service coverage ratios, both initial and contemporaneous.     

The impact of the agencies on conventional fixed-rate mortgage yields

Between the early 1980s and 1986, the share of new conforming (under $153,000 in 1986) conventional fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) that went into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage pools increased from under 5% to over 50%. The impact of these agencies moving from negligible participants to dominant players in this market is investigated in this study by an analysis of yields on 4,900 loans closed in California during May–June 1978 and 1,800 closed in May–June 1986.Our analysis indicates that the loan rate depends on the loan-to-value ratio, the loan size, and, in 1986, whether the loan is far above, just above, or below the conforming loan limit. Rates on loans far above the conforming loan limit exceed those on otherwise comparable loans below the limit by 30 basis points and those on loans destined to exceed the limit within a year by 15 basis points. That is, the expanded agency securitization of conforming FRMs has significantly lowered the rates on both conforming loans and loans somewhat above the conforming limit (27% of nonconforming loans in 1986) relative to what they would otherwise have been.Earlier versions of this paper were presented at an OSU Finance Seminar and the Midyear Meetings of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. We acknowledge the financial support of the Garn Institute.     

DIVIDEND CHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT EFFECTS AND EARNINGS VOLATILITY AND TIMING

Recent modeling using the asymmetric information framework suggests that the magnitude of a market response to dividend change announcements should be related to the timing of the dividend announcement vis-a-vis the earnings release and to the stability of those earnings. The announcement effects of regular quarterly dividend changes are tested and these effects are related to the percentage change in the dividend yield, to the stability of the firm's earnings, to the timing of dividend and earnings announcements, and to the level of earnings compared with prior quarters. Analysis indicates that significant relationships exist between the announcement effect and changes in the dividend yield, and whether the dividend change is positive or negative. Only weak evidence exists that dividend announcement effects are larger when current earnings are unknown.     

Contracts as Options: Some Evidence from Condominium Developments

This paper values the real estate option to purchase contract in a contingent claims framework. The model is an application of the Black and Scholes option pricing model. Observed market data on the sale of condominiums are used to test if the option is competitively priced under various assumptions regarding the expected instantaneous variance of the condominium price. Simulation results suggest that standard industry practices of charging a fixed amount for the option to purchase roughly conform to pricing behavior dictated by the option pricing model.