Commercial Real Estate Market Property Level Capital Expenditures: An Options Analysis

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Option pricing theory predicts that capital improvement expenditures are positively linked with high or increasing market lease rates. Ceteris...     

What Do Rental Contracts Reveal About Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard in Rental Housing Markets?

This article examines the pricing of rental contracts for two types of renter households: those who are able to amass a large, up-front security deposit and those with little, or no, security to offer. Empirical tests are presented to suggest that, in dealing with renter households who have little, or no, security to offer, landlords earn at a similar rate of return as lenders who make riskier loans at a high interest rate to borrowers of dubious credit. The analysis suggests that this situation occurs in large part because of the problem of asymmetric information and moral hazard between landlords and renter households regarding the latter's use of the premises.     

Valuing ARM Rate Caps: Implications of 1970–84 Interest Rate Behavior

This paper computes how coupon rates on hypothetical default-free 1- 3- and 5-year adjustable rate mortgages with various caps and teaser rates issued during the 1970–76 period would have had to be set in order for the ARMs to have earned the market rate of return over a 7 1/2-year holding period. The 1970–84 period includes both a relatively stable interest rate experience (1970–77) and a "worse case" sharply rising rate environment (1977–84). Thus the calculations include the entire gamut of margins that lenders might need to charge for various caps in order to earn the market rate of return. What margins lenders should be charging at any point in time depends on the relative likelihood of future interest rate paths, e.g., the 1970–77 pattern versus the 1977–84 pattern. More formally, the appropriate charge depends on the slope of the yield curve and the perceived volatility of interest rates.     

Institutional Investors' Preferences for REIT Stocks

This article investigates the determinants of real estate investment trusts (REIT) portfolio investment and institutional REIT ownership using multivariate Tobit regressions. We contend that many institutional investors take larger positions in more liquid assets like REIT stocks, as compared with private real estate equities, because of liquidity considerations. Consistent with this contention, we find that liquidity constraints are significantly related to REIT portfolio investment by institutional investors. We also find that institutional investors have different preferences for REIT stocks than do other investors; they generally prefer larger, more liquid REIT stocks.     

Using dead reckoning in economic projections

Economics is an inexact science, measurement of basic data is at best approximate, and most interesting relationships change relatively rapidly in developing countries. Key variables determining economic prospects are often impossible to include into models. Models and their mathematical algorithms however are deceptively precise, which often complicates the process of constructing and using economic projection models in developing countries.This paper will examine those macro models intended for operational policy purposes and how they are used. These models try to be analytically good and have sufficient plausibility to influence policy. Thus, a great deal of judgment is required in constructing, using, and interpreting projection models in developing countries: the “dead reckoning” element.     

PRICING FAST-PAY MORTGAGES: SOME SIMULATION RESULTS

The mortgage market has undergone rapid change in recent years, particularly in the introduction of alternative mortgage instruments. This paper explores one such instrument, the fast-pay (early equity) mortgage. Specifically, in this paper the focus is on how this type of mortgage would be priced relative to the standard conventional mortgage using historical yield data.     

On Option-Pricing Models in Real Estate: A Critique

This paper considers the problems peculiar to options on real estate, because of the special set of institutional factors influencing real estate markets. It is intended to serve as a reply to Johnson and Wofford [15] as well as provide an overall critique of option-pricing models in a real estate context. Our major point is that a variety of real estate decisions, such as the abandonment decision, the option to refinance, or the option to exercise a contingent real estate purchase contract, may be modeled using option-pricing techniques. However, both the theoretical and institutional aspects of real estate markets must be taken into account in both developing and applying option models in a real estate context.     

Determinants of Real Estate Asset Allocations in Private and Public Pension Plans

Numerous studies have examined the factors associated with allocation of corporate and government pension-plan assets. Yet to date there has been no attempt to identify the sponsor-related conditions that affect the percentage of U.S. private and public pension-fund assets invested in real estate. The purpose of this article is to examine various asset-and liability-matching hypotheses regarding pension-plan asset allocations. Models are specified for both corporate and government defined-benefit plans that relate the characteristics of each plan to the percentage allocated to real estate investments. Our results confirm the existence of a significant size effect for both corporate and government pension plans, although we find mean levels of real estate allocation to be much lower than those suggested in previous real estate allocation studies. The article, however, contains some anomalous findings. In particular, our findings suggest that pension-plan sponsors do not hedge their real estate risk. We also find that pension-plan sponsors do not invest in real estate, as theory might suggest, to minimize the noise level in their pension liabilities.     

Informing the US Energy Policy Debate with Threshold 21

There has been growing concern about the recent emergence of the critical challenges of energy availability and the impacts of climate change. Both are inextricably linked and dealing with them is fundamental to the progress of America and humanity. There are, however, a number of different views expressed, reflecting different assumptions, special interests, and partisan objectives. Decision-makers and the public need easy-to-use and transparent tools to better visualize, analyze, and understand the broader and longer-term implications of the varying underlying assumptions, policies, and strategies, including both their positive and negative impacts — both direct and indirect — and how to manage them.Threshold 21 (T21) the simulation model presented in this paper aims to become such a tool. The Millennium Institute has developed it over the last 24 years.The T21-USA model results indicate that a continuation of current policies and trends will lead the US to become increasingly dependent on foreign energy resources and more vulnerable to price fluctuations. Furthermore, alternative scenarios simulating improved CAFE and Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) show that major reductions in the US' resource consumption and pollution generation could be possible while stimulating the economy over the medium and longer term. Nevertheless, the model shows that unintended consequences, such as the Jevons Paradox, have to be taken into consideration when defining national energy policies.     

Elderly Female-Headed Households and the Decision to Trade Down

Results from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics show that elderly women appear to be much more circumspect than men about making housing changes. Some of this apparent difference occurs because elderly women have low levels of financial assets. Elderly women also appear to be much more likely than men, when they do move, to dissave out of home equity. Yet what appears on the surface to be a gender difference in the decision to dissave in later life turns out upon closer examination to occur because of divorce and the event of widowhood.