Monetary policy rules with PID control features: evidence from the UK,USA and EU

ABSTRACT

This paper considers the extent to which the monetary policy operations of three major central banks can be regarded as an application of Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control rules. The paper outlines the general PID framework and estimates a series of dynamic models to identify how interest rate policy adjustments are affected by the rate of inflation and the level of macroeconomic activity. The paper examines data for the UK, the USA and the Eurozone. The results suggest that the PID rules can provide a useful theoretical and empirical framework for estimating central bank responses to the inflation and macroeconomic activity variables by improving the explanatory power of the Taylor rule model and determining the effect of the parameters.     

The Evolving Structure of Chinese R&D Funding and its Implications for the Productivity of Agricultural Biotechnology Research

China’s research and development (R&D) policy has changed considerably over recent decades, and great changes occurred in 2006 when the main programme objective of China’s R&D changed from the 863 Programme and 973 Programme to the National Science and Technology Major Project. One topic that has drawn extensive attention is whether the investment reform improved R&D productivity in China. Using a unique panel dataset from 160 universities, this paper examines the effect of the investment reform on productivity improvement in China’s agricultural biotechnology sector. We use a panel count data model with a dynamic feedback mechanism to model the knowledge production process. Strong evidence indicates that the investment reform greatly contributes to knowledge output production in China’s agricultural biotechnology sector. We also find that the input quality is more important than the absolute quantity; human research capacity exhibits the greatest contribution to the output of patents; past knowledge accumulation helps produce more patents; and entry barriers to patent production exist in China’s agricultural biotechnology sector. Moreover, the patent explosion in China may have been largely caused by improvements in the human capital input quality.     

Driven by aspirations,but in what direction? Performance shortfalls,slack resources,and resource‐consuming vs. resource‐freeing organizational change

Research summary : Prior literature drawing on the behavioral theory of the firm has not considered how resource constraints impact the direction of organizational change in response to performance shortfalls relative to aspirations. We argue that decreasing financial resources resulting from substantial performance shortfalls and the absence or availability of slack resources together affect the emphasis on different types of organizational change in response to performance shortfalls. Using data on the acquisition and divestment behavior of 530 companies in the information and communications technology sector from 1992 to 2014, we find that the frequency of resource‐consuming acquisitions and of resource‐freeing divestments are affected differently by performance below aspirations and that these relationships are moderated by the level of financial slack. Managerial summary : This paper examines whether firms respond to performance shortfalls with acquisitions or divestments. We argue and show that the closer the firm is to the aspired level of performance, the more likely it is to respond with resource‐consuming acquisitions to close the performance gap, whereas the further it is from aspired performance, the more likely the firm is to respond with divestments to free resources. Financial slack weakens these relationships between performance relative to aspirations and acquisitions or divestments such that it increases the likelihood of a response through acquisitions while it reduces the likelihood of a response through divestments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New insights into an old problem – enhancing student learning outcomes in an introductory statistics course

Many students enrolled in first year introductory statistics courses believe learning statistics is a waste of time and fear they will fail. In this study, we explored the impacts on learning outcomes for students in an introductory statistics course by allowing students to arbitrarily choose their own sequence of learning from three key learning activities, namely tutorials, Peer-Assisted Study Sessions and Computer-Managed Learning quizzes. Unlike the old regime where the learning activities followed a strict, rigid sequence, a new regime allowed students to freely choose when, where and how they engaged with the course learning activities. This allowed increased opportunities for students to receive relevant and timely feedback. Using a total of 1187 students enrolled in semester 2 of 2011, 2012 and 2013, data were collected on students’ scores from 7 assessment tasks. Our experimental design ensured as many course features as possible remained constant between the control cohorts (of 2011 and 2012) and the experimental cohort (2013), thereby avoiding potential sample selection problems. The findings showed student learning outcomes in the new regime improved significantly. Interestingly, the effects were found to be greatest in the lower percentile of the score distribution.     

矿井通风三维可视化系统及优化

系统建立了三维仿真框架,建立了三维空间属性模型和非空间属性模型,分别对空间数据和非空间数据进行储存和管理。并建立了Hardy-Cross迭代模型和离散反馈型神经网络模型优化通风网络模型。并以C#语言来实现系统的功能。     

Marrying personality and job resources and their effect on engagement via critical psychological states

This study examined the process by which individuals become engaged with their jobs by integrating seminal engagement theory. More specifically, we suggest that an individual factor (i.e. autotelic personality) and two contextual factors (i.e. feedback environment, job autonomy) interact to predict work engagement through three critical psychological states – namely availability, meaningfulness, and safety. This moderated mediation framework was tested using a cross section of the US population (n = 284); data were collected at two points in time with 3 months in between. Availability and meaningfulness mediated the relationship between autotelic personality and work engagement. Autotelic personality’s indirect effect on work engagement through meaningfulness and safety was conditional such that the nature of feedback environment’s effect depended on job autonomy level. Theory and practice implications are discussed.     

经营绩效反馈、环境不确定性与企业广告投入

基于2012～2015年深沪两市A股上市公司样本数据，对经营绩效反馈和企业广告投入之间的关系进行了理论分析和实证检验，并进一步考察了环境不确定性的调节作用。研究结果表明：（1）当企业未实现资本市场经营预期时，随着实际绩效低于经营预期程度的增大，企业广告投入将减少；（2）当企业实现资本市场经营预期时，随着实际绩效高于经营预期程度的增大，企业广告投入将增加；（3）当企业未实现资本市场经营预期时，与低不确定性环境相比，高不确定性环境中企业经营绩效负反馈对广告投入的负向影响将增强；（4）当企业实现资本市场经营预期时，与低不确定性环境相比，高不确定性环境中企经营绩效正反馈对企业广告投入的正向影响将增强。     

Research bias in judgement bias studies – a systematic review of valuation judgement literature

Valuation judgement bias has been a research topic for several years due to its proclaimed effect on valuation accuracy. However, little is known on the emphasis of literature on judgement bias, with regard to, for instance, research methodologies, research context and robustness of research evidence. A synthesis of available research will establish consistency in the current knowledge base on valuer judgement, identify future research opportunities and support decision-making policy by educational and regulatory stakeholders how to cope with judgement bias. This article therefore, provides a systematic review of empirical research on real estate valuer judgement over the last 30 years. Based on a number of inclusion and exclusion criteria, we have systematically analysed 32 relevant papers on valuation judgement bias. Although we find some consistency in evidence, we also find the underlying research to be biased; the methodology adopted is dominated by a quantitative approach; research context is skewed by timing and origination; and research evidence seems fragmented and needs replication. In order to obtain a deeper understanding of valuation judgement processes and thus extend the current knowledge base, we advocate more use of qualitative research methods and scholars to adopt an interpretative paradigm when studying judgement behaviour.     

生态消费模式合作案例研究——以樱慈有机生活体验馆为例

生态消费模式是人们为满足消费需求并实现生态平衡过程所做的一种新型探索。生态消费模式中的合作案例较多,具体可以体现为:倡导节约性消费理念、选择简捷性消费方式、明确安全化消费目标、完善和谐化消费制度等。樱慈有机生活体验馆正是以新媒体传播方式、新交流合作平台、新代际立体反馈、新消费链条构建的真实案例展现。     

When do MNCs fail to learn from prior failure experience?

Do multinational corporations (MNCs) learn from their prior failures in international joint ventures (IJVs)? When does decision makers’ cognitive inability hinder MNCs from learning through their prior failure experiences? In the context of IJV survival in subsequent IJV entries, this study compares predictions made from two distinct theoretical perspectives, both of which belong to the behavioural school in strategy literature. According to the performance feedback perspective, MNCs may effectively learn from their prior failure experiences gained in familiar decision‐making contexts. On the other hand, according to the cognitive bias perspective, MNCs may not be able to effectively learn from their prior failure experiences if they inaccurately interpret the causes of their prior failures. The results provide partial support for the notion that MNC decision makers may not be able to effectively learn from their prior failures because of their cognitive biases. Copyright © 2015 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.