9308房屋建筑的震害预测方法

随着城市建设的发展和人口密度的增大,地震对人类的危害越来越大,因此,做好房屋建筑震害预测工作,具有重要的现实意义,文章用结构易损性分析方法分别对房屋建筑的几种常见的结构的震害进行了预测分析。     

The effect of repeat restructuring charges on analysts’ forecast revisions and accuracy

The primary objective of this study is to examine the effect of prior restructuring charges on analyst forecast revisions and accuracy. We find evidence that analysts respond differently to first-time restructuring firms than to repeat restructuring firms. Analysts revise their forecasts of both one-year-ahead earnings and five-year long-term growth in earnings more negatively for first-time restructuring firms than for firms with prior charges. When we examine forecast errors in the year subsequent to the restructuring, we find that current charges complicate analysts’ earnings forecast task. We further find that the decline in analyst forecast accuracy is mitigated by prior charges within past two years.     

Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility

Abstract:   This paper examines the lead‐lag relationship between futures trading activity (volume and open interest) and cash price volatility for major agricultural commodities. Granger causality tests and generalized forecast error variance decompositions show that an unexpected increase in futures trading volume unidirectionally causes an increase in cash price volatility for most commodities. Likewise, there is a weak causal feedback between open interest and cash price volatility. These findings are generally consistent with the destabilizing effect of futures trading on agricultural commodity markets.     

多级库存分销模型中的信息共享研究

随着供应链管理研究的深入。供应链分销系统的库存成为库存管理的一个热点。本文通过建立多级库存分销模型。运用对比定量分析．证明了多级库存分销系统中需求信息集中共享的重要性。     

Time Series Based Errors and Empirical Errors in Fertility Forecasts in the Nordic Countries*

We use ARCH time series models to derive model based prediction intervals for the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark up to 2050. For the short term (5–10 yrs), expected TFR‐errors are compared with empirical forecast errors observed in historical population forecasts prepared by the statistical agencies in these countries since 1969. Medium‐term and long‐term (up to 50 years) errors are compared with error patterns based on so‐called naïve forecasts, i.e. forecasts that assume that recently observed TFR‐levels also apply for the future.     

新疆人口城市化问题研究

运用人口普查资料及其它人口统计数据 ,分析新疆城镇人口过去 50年的变化 ,探究新疆人口城镇化过程的特征和成因 ,并运用数学模型预测未来新疆城镇人口及人口城镇化水平。提出新疆城镇体系发展战略构想及对策     

Globalization, Financial Volatility and Monetary Policy

Recently it has often been claimed that globalization eases the job of central banks as it helps to tame inflation. This is used to argue that central banks (particularly the ECB, referring to the objectives as laid down in the EU Treaty) could or should reduce their efforts in the fight against inflation in favor of supporting the general economic policies of the governments. This paper takes a critical look at this argument, pointing to the structural changes associated with globalization and to the corresponding increase in uncertainty by which the central banks are affected. As an example of this, the increase in financial volatility is analyzed and explained as the result of optimal portfolio allocation, and its implications for monetary policy are discussed.     

Information flows within and across sectors in Chinese stock markets

We examine the patterns of information flows within and across sectors of the two Chinese stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen during 1994–2001. Using the generalized forecast error variance decomposition, we find a high degree of interdependence, indicating that the sectors are highly integrated and sector prices reflect information from other sectors. Industry is the most influential sector in both exchanges, while Finance in Shenzhen is the least integrated with other sectors. Implications of the findings for investors and policymakers are also discussed.     

The Nested PIGLOG Model: An Application to U.S. Food Demand

A new demand system is introduced, the Nested PIGLOG model, nesting thirteen other demand systems including five that are also new. This new model and its nested special cases are applied to models of U.S. food demand that include food-at-home (FAH), food-away-from-home (FAFH), and alcoholic beverages. Although nested tests and out-of-sample forecasting performance favor generalizing models to a certain degree, statistically insignificant improvements to in-sample-fit and even poorer out-of-sample forecast accuracy undermine further generalizations. Based on a subset of preferred models, FAFH is found to be price and income elastic compared to FAH which is price and income inelastic.     

河北省粮食产量预测新法探析

粮食安全对中国来说是一个重大的战略问题,是历届政府的工作重点。目前在粮食产量预测上,理论界和实践中均采用预测精度不高的单一方法,这在一定程度上影响了粮食工作的正常开展。为了提高预算精度,应采用回归和马尔可夫联合模型的方法。实践证明:采用此联合模型的方法,其预测值尤为符合实际产量。