Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

以人为本,促进城市经济建设可持续发展——2007-2015年黑龙江省人才资源需求预测

本文依据相关统计数据及其相互关系,推算出黑龙江省历年从业人才资源总量,并构建GM(1,1)模型和二元线性回归模型,在此基础上,分别对黑龙江省2007-2015年从业人才需求进行了预测,并运用二模型最优组合预测对预测结果进行修正.由此,提出了实现预测目标的策略建议,为黑龙江省人才开发和培养决策提供参考.     

Does Integrated Reporting Matter to the Capital Market?

Integrated reporting (<IR>) is an emerging international corporate reporting initiative to address limitations to extant corporate reporting approaches, which are commonly criticized for being both voluminous and disjointed. While <IR> is gaining in popularity, current momentum has been limited due to a lack of clear evidence of its benefits. Utilizing the most suitable setting currently available, being discretionary disclosures made by listed companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, this study provides evidence that analyst forecast error reduces as a company's level of alignment with the <IR> framework increases. Further, the improved alignment is associated with a subsequent reduction in the cost of equity capital for certain reporting companies. The results are obtained after controlling for factors relating to financial transparency and the issuance of standalone non‐financial reports, which suggests that <IR> is providing incrementally useful information to the capital market over and above existing reporting mechanisms.     

北京市城乡收入差距的预测和成因分析

城乡居民收入差距不断扩大是我国许多省区面临的重要问题,北京市作为全国的政治文化中心,也面临着同样的难题,并且形势不容乐观。本文依据1990-2010年北京市城乡收入数据,运用SPSS回归分析法,对北京市未来几十年的城乡收入状况进行了预测,然后本文结合相关学者的研究,建立了多元线性回归模型,用1990-2010年相关数据,采用逐步回归法进行回归。并在回归结果基础上,给出了缩小城乡居民收入差距的几点建议。     

基于熵权灰色组合预测模型的区域能源需求预测研究

本文在充分考虑传统GM(1,1)模型所存在缺陷的基础上,结合灰色预测模型的最新理论成果,提出了基于GM(1,1)模型,新陈代谢模型,离散DGM模型三种灰色预测模型的组合预测模型,采用熵值法来确定组合预测模型中各单项方法的权重,并以湖北省为例,对湖北省2001-2010年能源需求总量进行实证研究,结果表明基于灰色组合预测模型的预测精度明显高于三种单项预测方法的精度,证明了该模型用于区域能源需求预测的科学性和有效性,在此基础上对2011-2015年湖北省能源需求进行了预测。     

基于PDL模型的舰船建造成本预测方法研究

指出物价波动剧烈的经济背景下,静态估算方法在舰船建造成本预测中存在的不足,在分析物价变化对舰船建造成本的影响机理的基础上,引入动态经济分析模型——PDL模型,选取PPI、CPI及其滞后值作为自变量,建立了舰船建造成本的预测模型。以某型舰船的批量建造成本作为数据样本,进行了实例分析,并与静态线性预测模型的分析结果进行对比,结论显示,采用动态经济预测方法能够更加客观的反映舰船建造成本的变化规律,有利于实现对成本的科学预测和精确控制。     

我国天然气供求分析和未来消费政策选择

天然气是世界第二大能源,近年来在我国保持了快速增长的态势,未来随着我国天然气消费量和进口量的增加,我国天然气安全问题日益凸现。因此,我国必须高度重视天然气消费政策。文章剖析了我国天然气供给和消费现状,预测了未来我国天然气供给和消费的需求量以及供给缺口,分析了未来我国天然气的安全形势,提出了对天然气的消费应该有所鼓励、有所限制的消费政策。     

我国经济增长预测研究新探——基于分类变量的扩散指标法

基于分类变量的扩散指标方法是在Stock and Watson所提出的扩散指标法的基础上，利用变量之间的相似系数先对变量进行聚类分析，根据各变量的相似程度的大小分为几个变量子集，然后分别从变量子集中提取扩散指标。应用基于变量分类的扩散指标方法对我国经济增长的预测结果表明，同扩散指标法相比，该方法更加充分利用了原始数据中的有用信息，预测精度很高，因而是对经济增长进行预测的另一种有效方法。     

龙永煤田仁盘西矿区构造特征及找煤预测

文章通过对矿区构造特征分析,认为矿区中西部大面积分布泥盆统桃子坑组(D3tz)、下石炭统林地组(C1l)等老地层,呈上覆现象,其老地层下应赋存有二叠系煤系地层并蕴藏着丰富的煤炭资源,前景较好,可作为煤炭勘查的后备基地。     

A Model Forecasting Risk for Emerging Market Currencies

In this paper, we propose a risk forecasting model for emerging market currencies. Our model is based on the Markov regime switch which is constructed by exploiting daily equity market information, and we show that our model outperforms the existing model using macroeconomic information. We evaluate it by the performance measures, the goodness-of-fit and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test.