Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices

We examined downside and upside risk spillovers from exchange rates to stock prices and vice versa for a set of emerging economies. We characterized the dependence structure between currency and stock returns using copulas and computed downside and upside value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk. We documented a positive relationship between stock prices and currency values in emerging economies with respect to the US dollar and the euro, with downside and upside spillover risk effects transmitted both ways. Finally, we also documented asymmetries in upside and downside risk spillovers and asymmetric differences in the size of risk spillovers when the domestic currency values against the US dollar and the euro. Our results, consistent with flight-to-quality phenomena, have implications for downside and upside risk management of international investor portfolios in emerging markets.     

Catalysts and magnets: Built environment and bicycle commuting

What effects do bicycle infrastructure and the built environment have on people’s decisions to commute by bicycle? While many studies have considered this question, commonly employed methodologies fail to address the unique statistical challenge of modeling modes with small mode shares. Additionally, personal characteristics that are not adequately accounted for may lead to overestimation of built environment impacts.This study addresses these two key issues by using an ordered probit Heckman selection model to jointly estimate participation in and frequency of commuting by bicycle, controlling for demographics, residential preferences, and travel attitudes. The findings suggest a strong influence of attitudinal factors, with modest contributions of bicycle accessibility. Bicycle lanes act as “magnets” to attract bicyclists to a neighborhood, rather than being the “catalyst” that encourages non-bikers to shift modes. The results have implications for planners and policymakers attempting to increase bicycling mode share via the strategic infrastructure development.     

The redesign of a warranty distribution network with recovery processes

A warranty distribution network provides aftersales warranty services to customers and resembles a closed-loop supply chain network with specific challenges for reverse flows management like recovery, repair, and reflow of refurbished products. We present here a nonlinear and nonconvex mixed integer programming model for the design of the warranty distribution network of a semiconductor company which is operated by an outsourced third party logistics service provider. The application of the model to the real-life case provides an improved distribution network flow and rearranged warehouse and recovery locations, and resulted in weekly cost savings of 3.4% for the considered item.     

The role of fashionability in second-hand shopping motivations

Second-hand consumption has been quietly undergoing a makeover in recent years. As part of this shift, the concept of shopping for second-hand goods has been redefined. In today's retail marketplace, a mix of thrift stores, high-end stores, and online retailers are recognising the value of second-hand and hosting flea markets or launching their own vintage product collections. However, limited research attention has been paid to role of ‘fashionability’ as a motivation for consumers to shop for second-hand goods. In this study, we explore modern consumer second-hand shopping behaviour and motivations, inclusive of fashionability. Through a segmentation of second-hand store shoppers, we identify four distinct segments. While we find a polarisation of fashionability motivations, the vast majority (83%) of second-hand shoppers are driven by fashion when shopping in second-hand stores. The findings present several implications for second-hand retailers, including new ways to expand their customer base by tapping into elements of fashionability.     

Predicting demand for air taxi urban aviation services using machine learning algorithms

This research focuses on predicting the demand for air taxi urban air mobility (UAM) services during different times of the day in various geographic regions of New York City using machine learning algorithms (MLAs). Several ride-related factors (such as month of the year, day of the week and time of the day) and weather-related variables (such as temperature, weather conditions and visibility) are used as predictors for four popular MLAs, namely, logistic regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and gradient boosting. Experimental results suggest gradient boosting to consistently provide higher prediction performance. Specific locations, certain time periods and weekdays consistently emerged as critical predictors.     

Why the Industrial Revolution Started in 18th Century Britain,Not China,from the Perspective of Globalization

The research examines the role of market expansion and international labor division in the British Industrial Revolution from the perspective of globalization. The research shows that British cotton textile output in pieces grew 275 times from the 1770s to the mid-1850s and documents that such growth would never have happened without a vast overseas market for the supply of raw cotton and the sale of products. The paper argues that the continuous and dramatic expansion of overseas markets allowed the British cotton industry to expand greatly without hitting the ceiling of marginal returns, leading not only to the great expansion of production, but also to technological and institutional innovations, and that international labor division made it possible for the industry to import ample amounts of raw cotton and export large amounts of cotton textiles. In contrast, foreign demand for Chinese cotton textiles increased significantly in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, but accounted for only 0.3% of production capacity, which was too little to lift the law of diminishing marginal returns and to induce either technological or institutional changes. As a result, only Smithian growths could be achieved through optimal resource utilization and specialization in production.     

‘Slow-burn’ spillover and ‘fast and furious’ contagion: a study of international stock markets

‘Fast and furious’ contagion across capital markets is an important phenomenon in an increasingly integrated financial world. Different from ‘slow-burn’ spillover or interdependence among these markets, ‘fast and furious’ contagion can occur instantly. To investigate this kind of contagion from the US, Japan and Hong Kong to other Asian economies, we design a research strategy to capture fundamental interdependence, or ‘slow-burn’ spillover, among these stock markets as well as short-term departures from this interdependence. Based on these departures, we propose a new contagion measure which reveals how one market responds over time to a shock in another market. We also propose international portfolio analysis for contagion via variance decomposition from the portfolio manager’s perspective. Using this research strategy, we find that the US stock market was cointegrated with the Asian stock markets during four specific periods from 3 July 1997 to 30 April 2014. Beyond this fundamental interdependence, the shocks from both Japan and Hong Kong have significant ‘fast and furious’ contagion effects on other Asian stock markets during the US subprime crisis, but the shocks from the US have no such effects.     

基于SPCA的我国地区发展评价和分析

唯GDP的考核方式造成了诸多问题。采用稀疏主成分分析构建了新的地区发展评价指数。研究表明,采用该方法是适合的,构造的指数不仅克服了大多数指数权重设置的主观性,能够有效分析地区综合发展水平,而且有利于透视地区发展各个方面存在的不平衡以及历史演进过程。     

葡萄穗霉属真菌次级代谢产物及生物活性研究

葡萄穗霉（ Stachybotrys ）属真菌分布广泛,包括了以黑葡萄穗霉（ Stachybotrys chartarum ）为代表的Stachybotrys complementi ,Stachybotrys kampalensi ,Stachybotrys atra 等多个种。葡萄穗霉能产生多种毒素,严重影响人类的健康和生活,因而受到了科学界广泛关注。综述了葡萄穗霉属真菌所产生的次级代谢产物以及生物活性。     

英国伦敦雾霾治理经验及启示

1952年发生的伦敦烟雾事件给公众的健康、生活与工作带来诸多不便。自此之后,英国政府痛定思痛,通过完善相关法制、强化公众参与、制定弹性的经济手段构建出一个具有鲜明特色的英国雾霾治理模式,有效地控制了污染蔓延。文章在对英国雾霾治理情况作简要概述后归纳总结出英国政府、公众和企业的协同参与机制,针对当前我国大气环境污染问题提出以改进大气污染总量控制标准、建立环境公益诉讼制度、完善煤电综合利用体系和搭建火电企业社会责任平台为主要内容的政策启示。