发起人特征、信用背书与偏远贫困地区农产品众筹扶贫项目的融资绩效

信任与有效监督是农产品众筹融资得以成功的基石。发起人与支持者之间的物理距离以及与此相关的直接监督是影响众筹扶贫项目融资绩效的重要因素。本文选取四个代表性的偏远贫困地区农产品众筹扶贫项目为案例,运用逐项复制与差别复制的多案例研究方法,探讨偏远贫困地区农产品众筹扶贫项目融资绩效的实现机制与关键影响因素。研究发现:第一,因其公共组织身份特征并处于利益中立位置,作为发起人的扶贫干部发挥了信用背书功能,增强了支持者的信任感;第二,在驻村机制下,扶贫干部有条件对生产者行为实施直接监督,发挥代理监督功能,且为维护组织及自身的声誉,监督会更加强化,增强了支持者的认可度,缓解了因交易半径扩大导致的信息不对称及支持者参与程度低等问题;第三,发起人利用其公共组织身份的在线社会关系资源,发挥"弱连接"机制下网络社群的异质性优势,在不同层级扩散项目信息、扩大受众边界,进而提高了农产品众筹扶贫项目融资绩效。     

基于Agent技术的分布式入侵检测系统的探究

提出了一个基于Agent的分布式入侵检测系统模型框架,讨论了该系统的结构及其Agent机制;深入探究了Agent技术在分布式入侵检系统中的应用和存在的问题。最后预测了未来入侵检测系统的发展趋势。     

基于多Agent的供应链风险管理

通过引入供应链风险的概念,探索供应链风险管理的意义,介绍了国内外企业和学术界的研究情况,同时在基于Agent相关理论基础上,将Agent的智能技术应用到供应链风险管理中,从而建立了基于多Agent系统的供应链风险管理模型（MABSCRM）。识别风险来源,衡量风险特征并实施控制,进而协调供应链内部各成员的关系,以期达到减少干扰。提高供应链整体运行效率。这个模型对供应链风险管理者在进行下一次的供应链运作将有很好的帮助。     

基于Agent和情感计算的司机驾驶行为模型研究

微观交通仿真技术是解决城市交通网络拥塞问题的有效工具,情感是人类具有智能的一个重要体现,然而如何通过情感来提高Agent的智能性已成为亟待解决的关键问题。文章结合生理和认知对情感的影响,提出了情感计算的建模方法,建立与Agent相结合的情感结构,以产生具体、真实的情感行为。     

The mountain environment,a driver for adaptation to climate change

The mountain environment is perceived today by vine-growers as a strong structural constraint. Yet in the current context of climate change, in which we turn to genetics, irrigation or innovation in cultural practices to maintain production quality, could the mountain environment emerge as a solution for adapting to climate change in vine-growing? Here we explore the role of cooperative policies that may be deployed on the territorial scale, using an agent-based model. Our model was based on the viticulture of the Banyuls–Collioures AOC area, which is characterized by small-scale vine-growers and marked by widespread involvement in cooperative systems. The simulation results showed an important role of cooperative policies not only to conserve narrow production window and required vine quality, but also in respect of the emblematic landscape structure. These results should foster vine-growers to strengthen their cooperatives and adequately use these organizations to mitigate future climate change impacts.     

浅析国际贸易托收结算中委托人的权益保护

在国际贸易托收结算业务中,委托人和托收行签订有委托合同,托收行是委托人的代理;同时托收结算中委托人同意托收行确定代收行参与托收,代收行同意参与托收等,双方都就托收事宜分别做出了意思表示,并且意思表示达成一致,他们之间存在委托代理合同关系。托收行和代收行都与委托人存在代理法律关系,如果由于托收行或代收行的过错或过失造成委托人损失,委托人可以追究托收行或代收行的责任,要求其进行赔偿。     

Agent based-stock flow consistent macroeconomics: Towards a benchmark model

The paper moves from a discussion of the challenges posed by the crisis to standard macroeconomics and the solutions adopted within the DSGE community. Although several recent improvements have enhanced the realism of standard models, we argue that major drawbacks still undermine their reliability. In particular, DSGE models still fail to recognize the complex adaptive nature of economic systems, and the implications of money endogeneity. The paper argues that a coherent and exhaustive representation of the inter-linkages between the real and financial sides of the economy should be a pivotal feature of every macroeconomic model and proposes a macroeconomic framework based on the combination of the Agent Based and Stock Flow Consistent approaches. The papers aims at contributing to the nascent AB-SFC literature under two fundamental respects: first, we develop a fully decentralized AB-SFC model with several innovative features, and we thoroughly validate it in order to check whether the model is a good candidate for policy analysis applications. Results suggest that the properties of the model match many empirical regularities, ranking among the best performers in the related literature, and that these properties are robust across different parameterizations. Second, the paper has also a methodological purpose in that we try to provide a set or rules and tools to build, calibrate, validate, and display AB-SFC models.     

中国代建制相关问题研究与探讨

代建制能够有效克服政府投资建设模式中的三超、权力腐败等现象,在实践中推进了政府投资工程的专业化与规范化,但是代建制由于自身法律地位不明确、承担风险与收益不成正比、人才储备不足等问题制约了其长远发展,本文针对上述问题提出了加强通过法律约束和规定明确代建人地位,规范代建行业与市场,统一收费标准和评价体系,加强项目过程风险控制和人才培养等措施,以推进我国代建制的长足进步。     

基于计算机仿真的钢铁企业生产车间天车作业优化

采用计算机循环仿真的方法,通过不断循环转换初始仿真模型和改良模型,利用多层次模糊标准找到优化解,并运用Agent技术定义了生产车间的仿真物流对象、仿真事件和逻辑。最后结合攀枝花新钢钒股份有限公司连铸车间的实例,证明了计算机仿真方法能够优化生产车间物流天车作业。     

BEHAVIOURAL COMPLEXITY

Abstract The paper compares and contrasts complexity economics and neoclassical economics. It proposes a framework for modelling complex systems and, accordingly, utilizes agent‐based simulation to examine consumption behaviour in a complex model and in a neoclassical model. Results suggest that complex behaviour leads to higher accumulation of wealth, better efficiency and greater stability. These results are consistent with the nature of complex systems whereby ‘the whole is greater than the sum’, and where unexpected system properties emerge from simple local interactions.