Time-to-build, obsolescence and the technological paradox

The paper focusses on the technological paradox. To analyze the possible temporary negative effect of an innovation we make use of a flow representation of production. Our aim is to show that such phenomenon can be justified by a simple property of the production process: in real time costs strictly come before proceeds. Moving in the same direction of Amendola (1972), and extending an overlooked result in Belloc (1980), we analyze the obsolescence effect induced by a rise in the interest rate. Furthermore, we analyze the role of capital market stickiness on the timing of the technological paradox and on the distribution of the obsolescence effect among the different stages of a vertical integrated production system.     

The Impact of Local Demand on Innovation in a Global Industry

Localization of knowledge flows has been extensively examined in the literature on innovation. However, almost all previous research has focused on technological knowledge. This study examines why knowledge of demand can also be tacit and localized. We provide a detailed empirical study of the global pharmaceutical industry and find not only that demand is as important as technological knowledge in determining the pattern of innovation in this industry but also that innovation is a locally determined phenomenon. These findings contribute to research regarding determinants of innovations and provide an explanation for geographic patterns of innovation that is distinct from technological knowledge spillovers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic energy demand models with latent equipment

Our approach to energy demand modelling is based on a two-level dynamic analysis. In the short run we consider the stock of energy-using appliances as fixed. Only its intensity of use may change. However, in the long run this stock may vary. The short- and long-run demand equations are integrated into a single-equation dynamic model in which the equipment is ruled out. Our application to the demand for energy in Switzerland shows the power of this simple but flexible model which provides a thorough explanation of past behavior and a firm basis for the exploration of future demand evolution paths.     

Exchange rate policy during transition to the European Monetary Union: The option of euroization

Countries of central eastern Europe which are candidates for accession to the European Union face fundamental challenges in the conduct of macroeconomic policies. These countries are characterized by growth rates faster than those of EU countries, along with large current account deficits and an equilibrium appreciation of the real exchange rate. In such a context, an early adoption of the euro may be beneficial to central eastern European countries, while the ERM‐II system and the Maastricht criterion on inflation may give rise to serious drawbacks for candidate countries. JEL classification: F15, F41     

Management Influence on Investors: Evidence from Shareholder Votes on the Frequency of Say on Pay

The literature on shareholder voting has mostly focused on the influence of proxy advisors on shareholder votes. We exploit a unique empirical setting enabling us to provide a direct estimate of management's influence. Analyzing shareholder votes on the frequency of future say on pay (SOP) votes, we find that a management recommendation for a particular frequency is associated with a 26 percent increase in voting support for that frequency. Additional tests suggest that the documented association is likely to capture a causal effect. Management influence varies across firms and is smaller at firms where perceived management credibility is lower. Compared to firms adopting an annual frequency, firms following management's recommendation to adopt a triennial frequency are significantly less likely to change their compensation practices in response to an adverse SOP vote, consistent with the notion that a less frequent vote results in lower management accountability.     

Poland

Statistical Annex

Poland     

Optimal execution with non-linear transient market impact

We study the problem of the optimal execution of a large trade in the propagator model with non-linear transient impact. From brute force numerical optimization of the cost functional, we find that the optimal solution for a buy programme typically features a few short intense buying periods separated by long periods of weak selling. Indeed, in some cases, we find negative expected cost. We show that this undesirable characteristic of the non-linear transient impact model may be mitigated either by introducing a bid–ask spread cost or by imposing convexity of the instantaneous market impact function for large trading rates; the objective in each case is to robustify the solution in a parsimonious and natural way.     

Public Investment,the Stability Pact and the ‘Golden Rule’

The fiscal rules set in the Treaty of Maastricht and in the Stability and Growth Pact have sometimes been criticised as an excessively binding constraint for appropriate counter‐cyclical action. The risk that the rules may permanently reduce the public sector's contribution to capital accumulation has also been pointed out. In this framework, the adoption of a ‘golden rule’ has been suggested. Starting from the recent debate, this paper tackles two questions: (a) the implications of the Pact for public investment and (b) the pros and cons of introducing a golden rule in EMU's fiscal framework, given the objectives of low public debts and adequate margins for a stabilising budgetary policy. The analysis suggests that the rules set in the Treaty and in the Pact may negatively influence public investment spending. However, the golden rule, although intuitively appealing, does not seem to be an appropriate solution to the problem.