A Bayesian Approach to Improve Estimate at Completion in Earned Value Management

Forecasting represents a core project management process. Estimates at completion in terms of cost and schedule provide essential data and advice to the project team in order to lead and control the project and implement suitable corrective measures. In order to improve the forecasting process, a Bayesian model has been developed within the earned value management framework aiming to calculate a confidence interval for the estimates of both cost and schedule at the completion of the project. The model is based on the integration of data records and qualitative knowledge provided by experts. The model has been tested in an oil and gas project.     

The effect of weather on consumer spending

There has been a great deal of anecdotal evidence to suggest that weather affects consumer decision making. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence to explain how the weather affects consumer spending and we detail the psychological mechanism that underlies this phenomenon. Specifically, we propose that the effect of weather – and, in particular, sunlight – on consumer spending is mediated by negative affect. That is, as exposure to sunlight increases, negative affect decreases and consumer spending tends to increase. We find strong support for this prediction across a series of three mixed methods studies in both the lab and the field.     

Rezensionen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Su un problema di teoria dell'utilità d'interesse in campo assicurativo

Si studia il problema della quota ottima di rischio che un individuo ha convenienza ad assumere, o ad assicurare, in relazione alla propria funzione di utilità; con particolare riguardo al caso in cui tale utilità sia rappresentata da una funzione esponenziale.The optimal risk fraction to be assumed by an individual acting following the expected utility principle is studied.Special attention is devoted to the case of exponential utility function.     

WAGE CONTROLS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM CENTRAL PLANNING TO A MARKET ECONOMY

Wage controls have been integral to the stabilization programsof the formerly socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europethat are now moving toward market economies. The usual rationalefor such restraints in "heterodox" stabilization efforts hasbeen the need to break the momentum of inflationary expectations.In economies in transition the pervasive weakness of governanceof state enterprises supplies an added imperative: the controlsare needed to hold the line against pressures for excessivewage increases, which must ultimately be paid for by decapitalizationof firms, reduction of tax revenues, or accumulation of enterprisedebt. Examination of the design and enforcement of various systemsof wage control leads to the conclusion that wage controls inevitablydistort decisions on employment and work effort. These distortions,moreover, are the result of the same features of state enterprisesthat necessitate wage controls in the first place. Ultimately,the only way to avoid such distortions is to remove uncertaintyabout the timing of privatization, to ensure that workers andmanagement have a well-defined stake in the newly privatizedfirms, and to establish financial discipline over the enterprises.      

Retaliatory Equilibria in a Japanese Ascending Auction for Multiple Objects

We construct a family of retaliatory equilibria for the Japanese ascending auction for multiple objects and show that, while it is immune to many of the tacitly collusive equilibria studied in the literature, it is not entirely immune when some bidders are commonly known to be interested in a specific object.     

The new Capital Accord and banks’ lending decisions

Capital requirements (‘pillar one’ of the new Capital Accord) rising with the increase in borrowers’ PDs were thought as being likely: (i) to have a serious impact on the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises (usually riskier than large corporates) and (ii) to increase the procyclicality of the supply of credit.

The aim of this paper is to provide an empirical evaluation of the possible impact of the new Accord proposals on the lending policies of Italian banks. We compare the interest rate charged to a large set of Italian firms with the cost brought about by the change in the calculation of capital requirements. Since the two variables move together in response to an increase in borrowers’ PDs, we conclude that the new regulatory approach to measuring capital adequacy appears consistent with banks’ own risk evaluations. This result is supported by a ‘stress testing’ exercise: the relationship also holds in a distressed economic scenario, which replicates the financial conditions of the Italian corporate sector in the 1993–1994 recession.     

Discussion of “Explicit relative performance evaluation in performance-vested equity grants”

Carter, Ittner and Zechman (2009) examine the use of explicit relative performance evaluation (RPE) conditions in performance-vested equity plans in a sample of United Kingdom (U.K.) firms in 2002. They find that factors suggested by economic theories (for example, removal of common shocks, tournament theory) are more closely associated with specific features of the plan than with the firm-level decision to use an RPE equity plan. My discussion focuses on the interpretation of these findings and the opportunities and implications for future research. I also summarize the views of five U.K. directors who were involved in the design and use of performance-vested equity plans.     

Mind the Gap: Inconsistencies Between Subjective and Objective Financial Risk Tolerance

Investors' financial risk tolerance is crucial in the formulation of suitable financial advice; in the past, assessment efforts relied on multiple approaches and techniques, but their consistency is still an issue. The authors focus on 2 metrics traditionally proposed (self-assessment and portfolio composition) and test their mutual consistency on a sample of 2,374 investors. The approach allows them to discriminate between inconsistencies due to wrong portfolio compositions and those arising from wrong self-assessments. The authors show that low financial literacy, high income, no children, and incautious economic behavior are commonly associated with such inconsistencies.