The Potential Impact of Sino-Korean Bilateral Trade on Economic Growth and the Environment: A CGE Model Analysis

A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we expect this work to contribute to the theoretical and empirical knowledge of the relationship between trade, growth and the environment. In this paper, four types of simulation are executed by applying a Sino-Korea CGE model. The results reveal that an increasing volume of bilateral trade boosts the real GDP at a decreasing rate. Different degrees in the volume of increase of bilateral trade produce welfare gains for Chinese households, i.e. more household spending. Welfare increases at a decreasing rate when the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently, while in Korea there are welfare losses (less household consumption) when the bilateral trade target becomes increasingly stringent. Moreover, the investment gains in the economy tend to rise more sharply as the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently in China. The investment tends to decrease at a proportional rate when the target bilateral trade volume becomes more stringent and the changes in the gross investment become more significant in Korea. In addition, the aggregate production shows a tendency to increase at a proportional rate with a more stringent target bilateral trade volume and when there are considerable changes in gross production. Furthermore, the impact of most production sectors can benefit China, but have a negative impact on Korea. Meantime, the simulations highlight that import growth increases carbon emissions at a decreasing rate, and export growth increases carbon emissions. According to our policy findings, policy makers should be advised to consider the third trade policy (Scenario c), which maintains a reasonable economic growth but at the expense of investment and welfare.     

CGE模型与微观模型连接方法* ——基于宏观冲击与微观效应整合分析框架的综述

宏观经济学与微观经济学这两个领域一度界限分明,但是近年来两个子学科已经逐渐融合,从微观层面经济当事人的行为出发来解释宏观经济现象的研究屡见不鲜。考察宏观经济环境变迁所产生的微观主体行为的变化是实证研究中关于宏观经济学与微观经济学相联系的另一类典型,而CGE模型是有效连接两个领域的重要手段。国外相关研究在21世纪开始盛行。本文将梳理和总结现有宏观-微观模型结合分析的相关方法并通过一个例子来解释该类方法的具体实践。     

人民币升值对我国宏观经济影响的CGE分析

通过利用动态CGE模型-MCHUGE模型仿真研究人民币升值对我国宏观经济的影响,可以看出人民币升值对中国经济造成了一定的冲击,出现了一定程度经济紊乱和就业恶化。7年内,中国的实际GDP保持持续降低,但降低幅度呈现逐渐减弱的态势。实际消费、政府支出、净出口、实际工资、总的就业水平均有所下降,特别是居民实际消费和政府支出的下降,极大地带动了GDP的下降;此外,中国的贸易条件得到一定程度的改善,居民消费指数下降。     

Agricultural market access: A moving target in the WTO negotiations?

This article analyzes the impact of multilateral market access liberalization of the Doha Round agricultural negotiations. At the center are the effects of variations in the magnitudes of tariff cuts, different tariff cutting formulas, the tariff capping as well as different numbers and width of tariff bands. The simulations are conducted with an extended version of the GTAP model and the GTAP database (6.0) including bound and applied rates and a module to cut tariffs at the 6-digit tariff line level. The results reveal that the heights of the tariff cuts and the kind of tiered formula applied are most important for the outcome of the Doha Round, while the width of tariff bands and the tariff capping only have a moderate influence on the countries’ trade pattern and welfare. In contrast, the number of tariff bands is not important for the results.     

The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute

In mid-2019 a new trade war between Korea and Japan started heating up, while the U.S.–China trade war held the spotlight. This paper documents the recent Korea–Japan trade dispute and quantifies its economic impacts. We consider a set of non-tariff distortions—Japanese export controls combined with Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. We simulate the impact of these actions using a multi-region general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP version 10 accounts and observed trade responses in the Korea Customs Service data. We find a welfare loss of 0.144% ($1.0 billion) for Korea and 0.013% ($346 million) for Japan. Sectoral impacts include a 0.25% reduction in chemical production in Japan. In Korea the reduction in imports from Japan is offset by increases in domestic production and imports from other countries.     

Scenario of China Reaching Carbon Peaking ahead of Schedule and Its Effect on Macro Economy

At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in 2020, China put forward the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, a move to lead global response to climate change that has attracted wide attention and hot comments at home and abroad. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and academic value to explore ways of achieving carbon peaking ahead of schedule and study the macroeconomic effect. This paper, based on Energy, Environment and Economy recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (TECGE), a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, carries out a quantitative analysis of the effect of strengthening carbon peaking commitment on China’s future macro economy. By setting up four scenarios, namely carbon peaking of 10.8 billion tons, 10.7 billion tons, 10.58 billion tons and 10.36 billion tons in 2030, 2027, 2025, and 2023, it examines the effects of carbon peaking ahead of schedule and carbon peaking in 2030 on macro economy. The findings show that, compared with the 2030 benchmark, the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved, the higher the carbon tax prices, and that though GDP and other macroeconomic variables, such as aggregate consumption, aggregate imports and exports decline, the share of the tertiary industry increases. That is, the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved, the more macroeconomic variables decline, and the more the share of the tertiary industry rises. This paper, using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effect, makes policy recommendations for carbon peaking ahead of schedule and high-quality economic development.     

Inter-metropolitan regional migration galvanized by high-speed rail: A simulation analysis of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line in Japan

The development of transportation infrastructure impacts migration, production, and other economic activities along with it. In this study, we conducted a multiregional computable general equilibrium simulation analysis to assess the effects that the proposed 2027 high-speed railway, the Linear Chuo Shinkansen in Japan, will have on population migration. The 47 prefectures ordained by the Japanese administrative unit were considered, and the simulation potential workforce population was taken as 110 million. The population is concentrated in the Tokyo metropolitan area. As per our simulation, once the proposed high-speed railway opens, “travel costs” (comprising time and the monetary costs of traveling) will decrease. This situation will stimulate economic activities and lead people to migrate to the prefectures where the economic environment improves. The results show that this development will ease extreme population concentration while simultaneously increasing employment and production values. However, additional analysis indicates that further development of the Linear Shinkansen to strengthen the current high-speed rail on the route to Tokaido will increase population concentration.     

煤炭价格下降对我国宏观经济的影响

煤炭在我国能源结构中居于主体地位,由于产能过剩和进口煤大量冲击,煤炭价格下降幅度较大。而煤炭价格已经接近完全市场化,电力价格仍然受政府管制,中央财经领导小组已经定调推动能源体制革命,电价市场化将是我国全面深化改革的重要内容,因此研究电价市场化和受政府管控下煤炭价格下降对宏观经济的影响具有重要的意义。论文利用CGE模型研究了两种情境下我国煤炭价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响,对不同的煤炭价格冲击进行情景模拟并进行了分析,结论表明两种情境下煤炭价格波动对宏观经济变量和21个产业影响是不同的,并据此提供一些政策建议。     

人民币升值对中国钢铁行业影响的CGE研究

运用中国动态可计算一般均衡模型-MCHUGE模型,改变进口溢价和出口转换变量,控制出口产品流通成本,研究人民币升值对中国钢铁行业的影响表明:钢铁行业是人民币升值的受益产业;人民币的一次性大幅升值能显著地刺激钢铁行业产能扩张、投资增加和就业增长;人民币的渐进式升值则能减少钢铁行业的进出口波动.     

货币反替代及其影响的动态CGE研究

现阶段存在的人民币升值趋势出现了居民增持本币资产和抛售外币资产这一"货币反替代"问题。运用动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型—MCHUGE模型分析货币反替代对当前中国宏观经济的影响及不同货币反替代程度下的走势,其仿真结果表明:人民币的小幅度反替代可以在保持中国经济平稳运行的前提下释放人民币升值压力,同时可以改善中国的贸易条件,有利于出口竞争型企业的发展,但从事初级产品生产的产业将受到不同程度的负面冲击,产出水平和就业都有所衰退。