中国2003-2008年CPI与PPI相互关系的统计研究

文章运用计量经济学方法对两组2003年1月至2008年11月间我国月度CPI和PPI数据进行了分析。甲组为按照上年同期为100计算的累计指标,乙组为按上年同月为100计算的同月比指标。结果显示在两组数据中CPI和PPI在常态下为非稳定的时间序列,并且两者间不存在长期均衡关系即协整关系。这一结论同产业链观点相悖。     

从CPI与PPI倒挂现象论中国的价格传导机制

2008年,中国价格领域出现了工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)和居民消费价格指数(CPI)增长不同步的现象,引起了国内外的普遍关注。为什么作为最重要的两大指标会出现这种现象?本文将在已有的研究成果基础上,通过对CPI与PPI倒挂现象的剖析,意在揭示中国价格传导机制现存的问题及其原因。     

基于灰色关联理论的我国价格形势研究

笔者选取了1997年～2006年中国CPI及同期相关年度数据作为研究样本,运用灰色关联理论对近年我国的价格形势进行多因素关联分析,结果表明,我国人均国民生产总值、货币供给增长指数、固定资产投资价格指数、食品零售价格指数、房地产销售价格指数等依次为我国价格波动的重要影响因素。     

中国CPI编制方法研究及国际经验借鉴——基于网络价格信息视角

CPI编制是宏观经济管理的重要内容,随着大数据等信息技术的发展,网络价格信息的采集与应用对CPI数据采集、计算、指数权重以及统计模式等方面都产生了不小的影响。与国际经验相比,中国CPI编制在权重更新频率、新产品偏误、季节性产品处理、自有住房服务处理以及特型CPI编制等方面都存在问题。应采取引进现代化的CPI数据采集、加快完善CPI权重设计方法、努力提升CPI统计质量、不断推进特型CPI指数编制等措施,利用网络价格信息不断优化中国CPI编制。     

Spread of E-commerce,prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from online price big data in Korea

The so-called Amazon effect is generally defined as such that the increasing competition in the online market and between online and traditional retailers is reducing retail markups and putting downward pressure on prices. This paper investigates the existence of the Amazon effect using online price big data in Korea where e-commerce has been rapidly spreading. For this task, the direct comparison between the online and offline prices were conducted in terms of the levels, trends, inflations, and dynamic correlations for two prices. Online prices for products were collected and classified under the identical classification in the CPI for 14 items in two divisions: food and non-alcoholic beverages and clothing and footwear. Laspeyres formula with identical weights as for the CPIs was applied to compilation of the item- and division-level OPIs (online price indexes) from July 2018 to June 2019. The empirical analyses overall indicated that persistent decreasing trends in the online prices were found when compared to those in the offline prices represented by the CPIs, indicating the existence of the Amazon effect in Korea. More specifically, the OPI covering two divisions decreased by 1.8%, while the CPI increased by 3.6% for the period. In addition, the close dynamic correlations between on-month inflations of two indexes were also found in panel regression and VAR estimations, indicating that a 1% increasing shock to OPI inflation led to an around 0.3% increasing response in the CPI inflation. The dynamic correlations, however, were quite different across the divisions. Those were more pronounced for the division of food and non-alcoholic beverages while they were found little in the division of clothing and footwear.     

Housing Rents and Inflation Rates

This paper develops a quality-adjusted measure of marginal housing rents using a monthly statistic of landlord net rental income. The marginal rent index (MRI) exhibits deflation during recessions and leads the official rent index by 7 months. The modified inflation rate based on MRI suggests that the annual official inflation rate was overestimated by 1.7–4.1% during the Great Recession but underestimated by 0.3–0.7% during the subsequent expansionary period.     

经常账户冲击、资本账户管理与中央银行货币政策操作

经常账户负向冲击及引发的宏观变量联动性通常对各经济体央行货币政策操作构成挑战。本文构建了融入经常账户冲击的小型开放经济DSGE模型,比较了采取不同资本账户管理工具(数量型和价格型)情景下,央行执行数量型货币政策规则、盯住CPI通胀泰勒规则、盯住PPI通胀泰勒规则下,经常账户负向冲击对货币政策操作的异质性影响及传导机制,并进行了福利分析。主要结论如下:第一,经常账户负向冲击将对本国央行货币政策操作构成一定影响;第二,资本账户管理可以成为缓冲经常账户负向冲击的防火墙,价格型资本账户管理工具与盯住PPI通胀泰勒规则相结合造成的福利损失较小;第三,经常账户贸易端与收益端双重负向冲击对一国货币政策操作的影响更大,但公众预期到的经常账户恶化对货币政策操作的影响将有所减弱。本文认为,转型经济体央行应倾向于执行价格型货币政策规则,最优货币政策应在稳定价格水平与缓释风险方面进行权衡,适度降低对名义汇率的关注度,稳慎推进资本账户开放进程,并可优先选择价格型资本账户管理工具。     

盐城“菜篮子”工程——蔬菜产业发展研究

“菜篮子”工程是一项民生工程,关系到老百姓的切身利益。随着经济社会发展与惠民政策的大力实施,“菜篮子”工程建设取得突破性进展。但发展的同时还存在着品牌不强、产业化经营水平不高、种植成本攀升、科技支撑力度不足、全产业链建设不完善、线上销售及流通能力不强等制约因素。因此,建议从组织保障、市场流通、科研力度、基础设施、绿色生产、全产业链建设等方面推进现代化蔬菜产业建设和发展。