Networks,firms, and trade

Fixed costs associated with learning about demand and setting up distribution networks are expected to be lower when there are more potential contacts in the destination market, suggesting a greater probability of market entry and larger export revenues. We match historically-determined emigration stocks with detailed firm-level data from Portugal to examine the effect of migrant networks on these export outcomes. We find that larger stocks of emigrants in a given destination increase export participation and intensity. In addition, we show that the former of these effects tends to be more pronounced among firms that are more likely to have close ties with the emigrants. These results are consistent with a multiple-destination version of the Melitz (2003) model featuring market-specific entry costs and idiosyncratic firm-destination demand shocks.     

Does Aid Cause Trade? Evidence from an Asymmetric Gravity Model

Anderson and vanWincoop developed what has become the standard framework for framing and interpreting empirical work using the gravity model. Their framework relies heavily on an assumption of symmetry among countries. For issues related to North‐South trade, this assumption is problematic. In this paper, we develop an asymmetric extension of the Anderson–vanWincoop framework appropriate to the analysis of North‐South trade, where Northern countries produce differentiated goods and Southern countries homogenous ones. In addition, we use an appropriately extended version of Baier and Bergtrand and Taylor linear expansion – thus permitting its estimation using (good old) OLS. The result is an empirical model that (i) is better suited to the analysis of North‐South trade, (ii) is easy to estimate and compute comparative statics, not requiring a customised NLS routine and, given the way the South is included, (iii) provides a simple explanation of zero trade flows between some country pairs, a fact still not fully explained in the literature. As an illustration of its use, we examine the empirical link between foreign aid and trade.     

当前物价运行及其未来发展趋势

2011年8月以来，CPI同比涨幅持续回落，全年CPI上涨5．4％。从2012年物价走势看，受政策滞后效应和上年同期基数效应影响，上半年物价有望延续回落趋势，而随着政策微调和宏观经济回升，下半年物价重拾升势的可能性较大。预计2012年全年CPI涨幅为3．6％左右。综合考虑我国工业化发展阶段、刘易斯拐点与资源品价格市场化改革等因素来看，中长期内物价仍存在上涨压力。     

Flexibility at the Margin and Labor Market Volatility in OECD Countries*

We study the business‐cycle behavior of segmented labor markets with flexibility at the margin (e.g., just affecting fixed‐term contracts). We present a matching model with temporary and permanent jobs (i) where there is a gap in the firing costs associated with these types of jobs and (ii) where there are restrictions in the creation and duration of fixed‐term contracts. We show that a labor market with ``flexibility at the margin'' increases the unemployment volatility with respect to one that is fully regulated. This analysis yields new insights into the interpretation of the recent volatility changes witnessed in the OECD area.     

The Breakdown of Idiosyncratic Volatility Into Expected and Unexpected Components and Its Effects on Stock Returns in Brazil

Based on studies of idiosyncratic volatility developed in the recent literature, this study analyzes its relation with expected returns through the breakdown of idiosyncratic volatility in the Brazilian stock market and presents evidence of the importance of expected idiosyncratic volatility for asset pricing. We study the impact of the expected and unexpected components of idiosyncratic volatility on the returns of shares listed on the BOVESPA between 2004 and 2011. The results show a strong positive and significant relation between expected idiosyncratic volatility and returns. This evidence is highlighted when we use unexpected idiosyncratic volatility to control for unexpected returns. Additional robustness tests, controlling for size and momentum effects, also have positive and significant coefficients, corroborating previous findings.