非平稳条件下的市场可预测性问题研究

本文研究了非平稳对线性、非线性可预测性检验的影响,从非平稳角度解释了"非线性可预测性难题"。在此基础上对传统的Box-Pierce-Ljung线性检验法和广义谱密度非线性检验法进行了修正,并运用严格的理论证明和蒙特卡罗模拟证实了它们在大样本和有限样本情况下的非平稳稳健性。最后,运用修正的检验方法对我国第一只股指期货标的沪深300统一指数的可预测性进行了分析。本文结论对于我国金融市场实证研究具有重要的指导意义,也反映了我国新兴金融市场的独有特性以及成熟统计方法在我国的实用性。     

Co-creation of background music: A key to innovating coffee shop management

Music is known to affect patrons in a service environment, and its types and applications have been widely studied. However, little research has yet addressed the possibility for patrons to create their background music (BGM) in collaboration with service providers. Also, the coffee shop has often been neglected as a research area for BGM application. We, thus, explore the potential for co-creation of background music (BGM) in coffee shop management. Based on the notion of congruity effect, which holds that congruent BGM leads to approach behavior, our research unveils that patrons experience a positive mood from BGM in harmony with a coffee shop environment and in turn show approach behavior represented by spending more money and time. More importantly, our research further explores the effect of BGM co-creation in boosting approach behavior (via enhanced perceived mood). The findings of this research suggest that coffee shop owners would benefit from adopting this co-creation strategy in managing their coffee shops.     

Forecasting inflation in the European Monetary Union: A disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors

Inflation in the European Monetary Union is measured by the Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) and it can be analysed by breaking down the aggregate index in two different ways. One refers to the breakdown into price indexes corresponding to big groups of markets throughout the European countries and another considers the HICP by countries. Both disaggregations are of interest because in each one, the component prices are not fully cointegrated, having more than one common factor in their trends. The paper shows that the breakdown by group of markets improves the European inflation forecasts and constitutes a framework in which general and specific indicators can be introduced for further improvements.     

Understanding how participatory approaches foster innovation

Adapting through innovation is one way for rural communities to sustain and improve their livelihoods and environments. Since the 1980s research and development organizations have developed participatory approaches to foster rural innovation. This paper develops a model, called the Learning-to-Innovate (LTI) model, of four basic processes linked to decision making and learning which regulate rate and quality of innovation. The processes are: creating awareness of new opportunities; deciding to adopt; adapting and changing practice; and learning and selecting. The model is then used to analyse four participatory approaches and the model is evaluated through the quality of insights generated. It shows that, while outwardly very different, the four approaches are built from combinations of 11 strategies. Most of these strategies are aimed at providing information about new opportunities and deciding whether to adopt, and give less support to the other two processes, thus suggesting one way the four participatory approaches can be strengthened. Beyond analysing participatory approaches, the model could be used as a framework for diagnosing the health of local innovation systems and designing tailor-made approaches to strengthen them.     

Investigating Information Systems Research in Canada

This project reports on the state of Information Systems (IS) research in Canada by analyzing research output and impact of Canadian IS scholars appearing in the form of peer‐reviewed journal articles. Specifically, we (a) measured individual productivity and impact, (b) measured institutional productivity and impact, (c) listed journals in which these works have appeared, (d) identified the most influential articles, (e) developed a ranking of IS scholarly journals from a Canadian perspective, and (f) compared the obtained journal ranking with the global IS journal rankings. Based on the findings, it was concluded that the Canadian IS discipline exhibits signs of academic maturity. Copyright © 2011 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How Do the Asian Economies Compete With Japan in the US Market? Is China Exceptional? A Triangular Trade Approach

We apply a trilateral trade approach to examine how Japanese exports and investment to China, or seven other Asian economies, affect Chinese, or the seven Asian economies', exports to the US market. The results suggest that while Chinese and Japanese exports are directly competitive in US markets, Chinese exports to the US are supported partly by Japanese exports to China. The positive correlation between Japanese exports to China and Chinese exports to the US is explained by vertical trade between Japanese multinationals and their affiliates in China. Indonesian and Philippine exports are also competing with Japanese exports in US markets, though the extent of the competition is much higher for China than for these countries.     

On Grammar Translation Approach and Communicative Language Teaching

Be driven by new knowledge about the learner and the English language, foreign language teaching has developed into many different schools based on different theories. All of them have their own advantages and disadvantages. Focusing on two of the most commonly used ones--the Grammar Translation Approach and Communicative Language Teaching, this paper gives comments about these two different approaches and give advices that combine them together to promote language teaching.     

面向内陆保税港区的保税物流人才培养研究

鉴于内陆保税物流人才需求的紧迫性,通过调研总结了保税物流人才的职业道德、能力结构、经营意识、创新理念等四个素质要求,发现现有的多种培养渠道无法较好培养优秀人才。由此,结合我校保税物流人才培养模式,从新的视角地提出了教育服务联盟构建、人才培养方案定制、教育服务传递系统整合、人才培养质量动态评价等培养途径。     

欧洲中心论与中国中心观的糅合?——读韩毓海的《五百年来谁著史》

韩毓海教授在《五百年来谁著史》一书中以"中国中心观"的视角从基层、金融、世界这三方面来解读1500年来的中国与世界历史,认为中国的"国家能力的持续下降"是明清经济崩溃的根源;西方的发展并不是历史的必然,而只是"历史的耦合"。韩毓海在论述时并没有完全跳出欧洲中心论的视角,而是两种视角交织在一起的。     

中国主权资产负债表及其风险评估(上)

本文基于国民资产负债表的理论框架,运用现有数据并通过必要的估算,初步编制了2000—2010年的中国主权资产负债表。结果显示,中国各年主权资产净额均为正值且呈上升趋势。这表明,中国政府拥有足够的主权资产来覆盖其主权负债。因此,在不短的时期内,中国发生主权债务危机的可能性极低。对总债务水平与全社会杠杆率(即总债务/GDP)的分析显示:中国的全社会杠杆率虽高于金砖国家,但远低于所有的发达经济体,总体上处在温和、可控的阶段。但是,近年来该杠杆率的提高速度很快,须引起关注。分部门的分析显示:企业负债率(占GDP比重)很高,构成中国资产负债表的显著特色。2010年,该负债率已逾100%,超过OECD国家90%的阈值,值得高度警惕。