时间压力下的注册会计师行为——来自一个全国性事务所的调查证据

审计判断是一个复杂的认知活动,对周围的环境非常敏感。在中国,时间压力作为影响审计绩效的环境因素,其重要性日益上升。目前有关时间压力的有限研究主要是针对外国审计市场背景进行的。通过对我国一个全国性事务所的调查,我们发现,近年来我国注册会计师面临的时间压力越来越大。时间压力阻碍了审计程序的实施,低报审计时间,降低了审计质量。     

保险条款的效力评价——新《保险法》第十九条的理解与适用

新《保险法》第19条的法理基础源于格式条款的内容控制原则,内容上对我国《合同法》和台湾地区保险法有关规定有所借鉴。其立法意旨是依据诚实信用和公平正义原则,对不利于被保险人的不公平条款进行规制。保险条款效力认定,包括合法性判断和合理性判断。合法性判断要着重分析保险条款免除的义务或排除的权利所指向之法律规定为任意性规范的情形;合理性判断重在具体情形下的利益平衡。鉴于现阶段保险条款存在较多公平性问题,第19条的规范意义非常重大;为避免矫枉过正,其适用应当科学审慎,尤其要尊重保险合同特性,合理运用司法裁量。     

基于并行判决法的PCTH-UWB系统性能分析

伪混沌跳时序列(PCTH)最近提出应用于UWB系统。本文分析了PCTH-UWB的工作原理,提出了并行判决法,与直接判决法进行了比较,理论分析及仿真结果表明并行判决法可提高PCTH-UWB系统性能。     

Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts

When forecasting decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person’s shoes. We refer to this as “role thinking”, because, in practice, the advice is to think about how other protagonists will view the situation in order to predict their decisions. We tested the effect of role thinking on forecast accuracy. We obtained 101 role-thinking forecasts of the decisions that would be made in nine diverse conflicts from 27 Naval postgraduate students (experts) and 107 role-thinking forecasts from 103 second-year organizational behavior students (novices). The accuracy of the novices’ forecasts was 33% and that of the experts’ was 31%; both were little different from chance (guessing), which was 28%. The small improvement in accuracy from role-thinking strengthens the finding from earlier research that it is not sufficient to think hard about a situation in order to predict the decisions which groups of people will make when they are in conflict. Instead, it is useful to ask groups of role players to simulate the situation. When groups of novice participants adopted the roles of protagonists in the aforementioned nine conflicts and interacted with each other, their group decisions predicted the actual decisions with an accuracy of 60%.     

员工职业停滞的理论分类与现实判定

职业停滞的现有分类存在诸多问题,一定程度上导致了目前职业停滞预测效果、治理效果不理想的局面。本研究从内容分析、文献研究入手提炼职业停滞的分类依据,进而透过动机、能力和机会三个层面对职业停滞进行理论分类,最后通过实证研究对职业停滞作出现实判定和检验,为今后的相关研究奠定基础。     

不确定性与会计职业判断

市场经济是一个动态的、复杂的、开放的经济系统,在其运行过程中,存在着大量的不确定性因素.作为以价值形式对经济运行进行数量反映和质量分析的会计,必然存在着对会计职业进行判断的问题.本文从经济活动不确定性的成因与会计职业判断的项目要求的因果关系分析入手,强调提高会计人员的职业判断能力,减少经济活动的风险的必要性.     

The path dependence of organizational reputation: how social judgment influences assessments of capability and character

Drawing upon theory on social judgments and impression formation from social psychology, this paper explores the socio‐cognitive processes that shape the formation of favorable and unfavorable organizational reputations. Specifically, we suggest that stakeholders make distinctions between an organization's capabilities and its character. We explain the nature and function of each and articulate the manner in which judgment heuristics and biases manifest in the development of capability and character reputations. In doing so, this research explores both the positive and negative sides of organizational reputation by examining the manner in which different types of reputations are built or damaged, and how these processes influence the ability of managers to enhance and protect these reputations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

信用社审计思维与高风险点判断

商业银行审计主要目的是控制风险,同时审计过程也是检查与被检查主体之间的一个博弈,所以如何去判断风险是信用社审计的关键。本文对信用社审计中可能出现的各类风险点和主要的审计思维模式进行了总结分析,以期对审计工作起到借鉴作用。     

Perceived trade-off between education and sports career: evidence from professional football

To explore the attitudes towards risky career choices of young people in highly competitive environments, we surveyed almost 1000 football players in the youth academies of German professional clubs (Bundesliga), who must generally decide early in their careers whether or not to risk quitting school to focus solely on a professional football career. Based on the survey responses, we empirically analysed which factors influence these youths’ tendencies to choose a high-risk career option over a lower risk one. Our results seem to indicate that such risk taking in competitive environments can be explained by potential benefits expected from this decision, as well as judgments about the likelihood of achieving the desired career. Risk attitudes towards career choices vary by differences in individuals’ estimates of the potential benefits and in particular, in their own assessments of the likelihood of success, which is an important driver of risk acceptance. We also found that opportunity cost considerations influence risk acceptance: the better the low-risk option, the less willing the individual to give it up for a high-risk alternative. In addition, both national origin and level of cultural integration play a role in attitudes towards risky career choices, with reductions in the latter increasing the risk premium of quitting school.     

Emotion,affect, and risk communication with older adults: challenges and opportunities

Recent research suggests that emotion, affect, and cognition play important roles in risk perception and that their roles in judgment and decision‐making processes may change over the lifespan. This paper discusses how emotion and affect might help or hinder risk communication with older adults. Currently, there are few guidelines for developing effective risk messages for the world's aging population, despite the array of complex risk decisions that come with increasing age and the importance of maintaining good decision making in later life. Age‐related declines in cognitive abilities such as memory and processing speed, increased reliance on automatic processes, and adaptive motivational shifts toward focusing more on affective (especially positive) information mean that older and younger adults may respond differently to risk messages. Implications for specific risk information formats (probabilities, frequencies, visual displays, and narratives) are discussed and directions for future research are highlighted.