An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses

Our study sets out to assess the accuracy of profit forecasts made by IPOs in Hong Kong. We use a variety of measures and tests to examine the accuracy, bias, rationality, and superiority of earnings estimates. The results show that forecast accuracy compares favourably with the findings from the developed economies of Australia, Britain, Canada, and New Zealand. Forecasts are shown to be superior to the predictions from time series models. IPOs tend to underforecast in the sense that actual profits exceed the forecasts. The rationality tests show mixed results. Cross-sectional analyses of forecast accuracy have poor explanatory power although the Big Six reporting accountants are associated with smaller forecast errors.     

如何看待扑朔迷离的资本市场走势

2008年11月以来,央行放松信贷,重新为市场注入流动性,保增长、保民生、保稳定是贯穿始终的主旋律,导致A股市场不断回暖,未来的资本市场如何运行,笔者从我国的国情、货币政策的走向等诸多角度入手,分析探讨资本市场的未来走势,供投资者和相关决策部门参考.     

IPO发行审核制度回顾与简析

随着中国经济的不断发展及资本市场的不断完善,在过去的十多年里,中国的IPO发行制度经历了不断变迁和演进的过程.本文主要从发行审核制度、对我国IPO发行制度的演进过程做了较为完整的回顾与评价,并展望了未来的发展方向.     

公司治理与IPO抑价研究

公司治理结构是上市公司向投资者传递公司价值信息的重要手段,投资者时公司治理结构的预期会体现在IPO定价过程中.良好的公司治理结构将有助于降低公司的代理成本,从而降低发行过程中的IPO抑价,减少公司的股权融资成本,本文对此进行了分析.     

IPO高抑价之谜：“租金分配观”还是“定价效率观”？——基于2005-2012年数据

对中国IPO极高的抑价现象存在两种不同的解释——“定价效率观”和“租金分配观”。以2005—2012年A股IPO公司作为样本,对这两种观点进行检验,结果表明：“租金分配观”只在2005-2008年成立,在2009-2012年不成立;“定价效率观”则能更好地解释2005年实施询价配售制度以来中国IPO抑价率的变化。     

风险投资机构参与对公司IPO前盈余管理的影响——基于创业板上市公司的数据

基于创业板上市公司数据,对风险投资机构参与及其特征对我国上市公司IPO前的盈余管理影响进行实证检验,结果显示：风险投资机构参与对上市公司IPO前的盈余管理起到了积极的认证和监督作用。在我国,政府性资本占主要地位的风险投资机构更多地发挥了正面认证和监督作用。风险投资机构的声誉和数量对上市公司IPO前的盈余管理发挥了较大作用,风险投资机构的声誉越高、数量越多,上市公司IPO前一年的盈余管理程度越低。风险投资机构总持股比例与盈余管理程度无显著关系。     

Socioemotional wealth and IPO underpricing of family firms

Socioemotional wealth (SEW), i.e., the noneconomic utility a family derives from its ownership position in a firm, is the primary reference point for family firms. Family firms are willing to sacrifice economic gains in order to preserve their noneconomic utility. Thus, we argue that family firms sacrifice IPO proceeds by choosing higher IPO underpricing than nonfamily firms if underpricing helps them protect their SEW. Our empirical results, based on a sample of 153 German IPOs, support our hypothesis. On average, family firms have 10 percentage points more IPO underpricing than nonfamily firms. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The exit decision in the European venture capital market

This article analyses the exit decision in the European venture capital market, studying when to exit and how it interacts with the exit form. Using a competing risks model we study the impact on the exit decision of the characteristics of venture capital investors, of their investments and of contracting variables. Our results reveals that the hazard functions are non-monotonic for all exit forms and suggest that, in Europe, Initial Public Offering candidates take longer to be selected than trade sales. Moreover our results show that, in Europe, venture capitalists associated with financial institutions have quicker exits (stronger for trade sales), and highlight the importance of contracting variables on the exit decision. An unexpected result is that the presence on the board of directors leads to longer investment durations.     

铁路非运输企业股改上市路径探讨

铁路非运输企业股改上市是国铁资产股权化证券化的重要组成部分,也是深化铁路非运输企业混合所有制改革的关键。铁路非运输企业股改上市与铁路运输主业以及其他类型的公司相比有所不同。在分析铁路非运输企业特性基础上,阐明其股改上市面临的主要问题以及待突破的重点,最后以哈尔滨国铁科技集团股份有限公司为例,从企业内部重组、引入战略投资人、股份制变更以及IPO申报等方面,提出铁路非运输企业股改上市的具体路径以及股改上市后需要进一步完善的事项,研究可以为铁路非运输企业改革提供借鉴。     

创业板市场的IPO研究

本较为全面地研究了创业板的IPO市场。风险企业IPO是风险资本退出的有效渠道,风险型企业中的“内部投资”－风险投资家,将在企业IPO煌时间决策,定价和股权结构等方面发挥特别作用;同时邓创业板市场的定价,承销机制提出了一些建议。