Comment on ‘Cyclical and secular influences on the size distribution of personal income in the UK: some econometric tests’ by G. Weil

The issue of the relationship between domestic and eurocurrency interest rates is reexamined using the Granger causality test. It is concluded that while earlier results suggesting causality runs from the eurocurrency market to the domestic money market remains valid for the US dollar market, this result cannot be generalized to behaviour in the money markets denominated in sterling deutschemarks.     

Inequality in Europe: What can be done? What should be done?

As economic inequality in Europe has continued to rise, it has become the subject of increasing academic attention. What are the drivers of inequality? How does it affect intergenerational economic and social mobility? At what point does inequality become a drag on economic growth or a threat to social order? What economic policy tools are available to reduce inequality? This Forum addresses these and other aspects of this complex and disturbing trend. Case studies of Ireland, Germany and Spain also highlight the impact of economic inequality on individual member states.     

Possibly-Final Offers

A price-setting seller faces a buyer with unknown reservation value. We show that if the buyer is sufficiently risk averse, the seller can benefit from employing a Possibly-Final Offer (PFO) strategy. In a PFO, if the buyer rejects the seller's initial offer the seller sometimes terminates the interaction. If the seller does not terminate, he follows up with a subsequent, more attractive offer. As the buyer's risk aversion increases, the seller's expected profit under the optimal PFO approaches the full-information profit. These results extend to contexts with endogenous commitment, multiple types of buyers, multidimensional objects, and nonseparable utility functions.     

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation: The Role of Central Bank Accountability

We analyse the issue of central bank accountability with the aid of a simple monetary policy game with uncertainty about the agent's inflation stabilisation preferences. We find that there may be an important economic role for accountability in addition to its political function of making the central bank answerable to voters through its accountability to the executive. The model suggests that for countries with relatively little central bank independence, or perhaps a poor inflationary track record, significant reductions in inflation can be achieved by lowering monetary policy uncertainty. These reductions are much smaller for inflation-averse central banks, when monetary policy uncertainty is reduced by the same absolute amount. Thus, the effectiveness of accountability – as a means of lowering both inflation and inflation uncertainty – is higher the lower the degree of central bank conservativeness.     

Big business with Chinese characteristics: two paths to growth of the firm in China under reform

This paper presents a case study of two large firms which emergedfrom among the ranks of traditional state-owned enterprisesand new entrants: Shougang (steel) and Sanjiu (pharmaceuticals).Rather than being irreconcilable with the market economy, theexperience of these two firms suggests that the Chinese CommunistParty and the People's Liberation Army possessed a rich legacyof organisational and motivational skills. Moreover, Shougangand Sanjiu both grew rapidly through mergers and acquisitionsin the absence of privatisation and a developed stock market.Furthermore, the main reason for Shougang and Sanjiu's successis not special help from the government or the army, but ratherthe fact that its leadership used their autonomy to constructa highly effective business organisation.     

Industrial Policy and Global Big Business Revolution: the Case of the Chinese Coal Industry1

China has actively implemented an industrial policy during the last two decades. However, despite important progress, the overall result is rather disappointing. Should China continue to pursue industrial policy? Should China focus instead on developing successful globally competitive firms within the global value chain? This paper, based on an in-depth case study on the Shenhua Group, which has been deliberately built as an indigenous globally competitive coal corporation, argues that it is still possible for China to build powerful big businesses in some sectors. However, a well-designed industrial policy is necessary.     

Linear and nonlinear regression with stable errors

In this paper we describe methods and evaluate programs for linear regression by maximum likelihood when the errors have a heavy tailed stable distribution. The asymptotic Fisher information matrix for both the regression coefficients and the error distribution parameters are derived, giving large sample confidence intervals for all parameters. Simulated examples are shown where the errors are stably distributed and also where the errors are heavy tailed but are not stable, as well as a real example using financial data. The results are then extended to nonlinear models and to non-homogeneous error terms.     

THE DRIVERS OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN RICH COUNTRIES

Rising income inequality has recently come centre‐stage as a core societal concern for rich countries. The diagnosis of the forces driving inequality upwards and their relative importance remain hotly contested, notably with respect to the roles of globalization versus technology and of market forces versus institutions and policy choices. This survey provides a critical review and synthesis of recent research. The focus is on income inequality across the entire distribution, rather than only on what has been happening at the very top. We pay particular attention to include what has been learned from the analysis of micro‐data, to ensure that the coverage is not unduly US‐centric and to analyses of the interrelations between the different drivers of inequality. The marked differences in inequality trends across countries and time periods reflect how global economic forces such as globalization and technological change have interacted with differing national contexts and institutions. Major analytical challenges stand in the way of a consensus emerging on the relative importance of different drivers in how income inequality has evolved in recent decades.     

Does racial prejudice affect black entrepreneurship?: evidence exploiting spatial differences in prejudicial attitudes

This article explores the relationship between racial prejudice towards blacks and the black-white self-employment rate gap and provides the first direct empirical evidence that racial prejudice negatively impacts black self-employment, particularly in high start-up cost industries. To perform this analysis, I construct a measure of prejudicial attitudes using responses from the General Social Survey and estimate the relationship between self-employment and this index using the American Community Survey. I find that an amount of prejudice equal to the difference in least and most prejudiced census divisions increases the black-white self-employment rate gap in high start-up cost industries by 10.4–16.8%, depending upon whether parental self-employment is controlled for, and represents the entire impact of racial prejudice on the black-white self-employment rate gap. Additionally, racial prejudice widens the black-white self-employment income gap by between 6.4% and 8.2% in my full specification, dependent upon how income is measured. Evidence indicates that racial prejudice is causing blacks difficulty in financing their businesses. The results presented are robust to various modelling and data assumptions.